Horse Racing Strategies Megathread

John Folan

Horse strategies really are recovering nicely after last months mess. As Ryan constantly says. “Quarterly John. Quarterly”

John Folan

@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

@martin so how do i do that? when you get the preset startegy up do you then just put the dates of 1-31 august? and it then shows just that months results?

Just run it mate. Augusts results are in the monthly breakdown.

Nick Allan

@john-folan yeah only had 2 sucessful ones out of 5 but im currently testing them with £1 stakes and the bots have been techy to say the least so its tough to say but at the moment its not been good results

Nick Allan

@martin so how do i do that? when you get the preset startegy up do you then just put the dates of 1-31 august? and it then shows just that months results?

John Folan

August was a mess for mine. They seem to be righting themselves this month.

Martin

@nick-allan not had time to check them yet, most of them are in the presets so you could run them and find out

Nick Allan

@martin are there any results form the horse racing software for august? the only one i have sucess with is wayne pace, the others really havent done well and i wonder if you found the same?

Martin

@gwyn-richards good work cheers!

Gwyn Richards

Hey guys, I've looked at back-tested results for Pace Letter Backs. Its pretty clear that an earlier entry time is preferable. 3-5 hours before the off is optimal. See graph below.

This also suggests that the filter might work for a back-to-lay strategy, although it may just be that the odds don't generally come in, but only for horses that win. I'll try to look at that next.

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@gwyn-richards Nice one Gwyn great work

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@gwyn-richards thanks for that Gwyn your analysis is much appreciated.

Gwyn Richards

@dan-mackinnon @John-Folan @David-Baker-0

I've done some analysis on my Pace Letter Back trades to date. The graph is below, showing the actual odds I took (which are at fairly random times with respect to race start) vs win BSP vs place BSP. All the results are to £1 stakes with 2% commission.

A few things jump out:

I usually gained by taking earlier odds. Winners more likely to come in than draft towards race start?
Less variance with the places as you'd expect.
Place currently ahead of win but this switches back and forth. Sample size too small to show trustworthy trends I think.

Anyway I am next going to use the backtesting software to run comparisons between taking prices 5 mins before, 10 mins before, an hour before, morning price etc and see what that throws up. Will report back with results.

John Folan

@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

@james-menhenitt you need to check odds at entry time or have a bot doing it, odds move so much you don't want to eliminate a horse before entry time

What Martin said. I’ve got a very effective bot for mine. I’ll take a look at Martins and see if I can amend it and do one for that too.

Martin

@james-menhenitt you need to check odds at entry time or have a bot doing it, odds move so much you don't want to eliminate a horse before entry time

John Folan

@stephen-oleary you might not be far off to be fair. Plus the weird conditions.

James Menhenitt

@martin Ah, thanks - maybe in the import process it doesn't populate the odds? Or is it the fact that running the report vs sp can be very different so it just suggests the horses that would be good if they hit the prices?

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@john-folan i am testing the same thing with last start beaten favs that have had 30 to 90 days between runs and that seems to be going well but in july like all systems in that month seems to be a downfall.

Your 1.80-2.40 lay system(i think was yours) is going really well lately. Again july was a downfall. My theory on july is that with all the big races and the smart punters start betting big and your getting a true price on all horses and when your laying a short price its because you think that price is unders and not its true price. Im probably wrong but its a theory i have not a factual.

John Folan

@martin there is a massive sweet spot around those odds for laying isn’t there?

Martin

@james-menhenitt odds are between 1.69-2.19 to lay so you will only ever get one horse a race (at most!)

James Menhenitt

@Martin , just wanted to check something if that's ok and sorry if it's buried somewhere in the thread, had a look but couldn't see anything obvious....

Your short odds lays - throws up a very large number of selections (373 for today) - how do you select which ones you lay, or do you actually lay the lot?!

TIA!!