U4.5 and below...A potent solution?
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Being a fan of U3.5, I'm inclined to have a few more good days than bad ones. But what if I could have more? !
I've spent the last week going with U4.5 and U5.5 and I'm surprised at the results.
U3 .5 offers those 'wil a goal go in' thrills and that's great. However, putting value aside, the U4.5 market offers a greater sense of security, as most matches end with less than 4 goals. For me, U5.5 has been solid gold. The key difference has been that I've increased my stake to £10 and while I'm still refining it, early indications are that a huge majority of games veild a payout.
I'll continue to check this but I've a feeling I'm onto something
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Hi, I noticed this thread while browsing the forum and it’s an interesting approach.
Have you thought of waiting for the first goal, then putting the trade in to get better odds? You’d be ideally be wanting to get an early goal though to make that work.
Or you could wait until you get the odds you want after 1/2/3 goals and then enter as these are presumably trades you’ve earmarked already and were getting in at kick off regardless.
If you have a filter and stats to back up your selections it could be nice. I’ve wondered about handling a strategy that way before.
Best of luck!
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@julian-drake-clarke glad to be of service!
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@martin these doth rock!
By the third time of viewing, I was actually starting to make a filter...it was crap but at least I'd got the groundwork on it
I'll be tweaking that up later.
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@martin So, I'd better get on board with this
You got a 'Match Selection For Dummies' video? 'Stats For Thickos' would also be helpful.
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@julian-drake-clarke yeah match selection will ultimately be the key to this one
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@martin Thats where the plan needs finessing
If i'm doing Bet & Forget , then I'm looking for £1 (ish) per trade. A trade going the wrong way means a loss of £10 and my average is 14 wins to 1 loss. However, today is an example of climbing a very steep and unexpected hill, with 3 trades going south. I'm clawing my way back gradually but I would anticipate a smallish loss today if my trades continue to gain at £1.
Two factors I can point to here; Firstly, I literally took my eye off the ball. I trade during work time and 12 to 14 hour days are not uncommon, with just Mondays off. Bet & Forget seems an ideal plan for me and I top up trades with winnings each breaktime. The solution, of course, is to dedicate some time to just trading without distractions. That element will be October's goal.
Secondly, being a noob isn't an excuse but the inexperience is a telling factor. I do genuinely get the importance of preparing each trade with stats and i'm hoping to tackle my Stataphobia in bite size chunks.
I do think that I might have have the elements of a real strategy with U4.5 or at least a baseline. My gut feeling is this coupled with some intensive statistical analysis, is a pathway to profit. Time will tell.
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@julian-drake-clarke what is your profit per trade average? And loss on a losing trade average?
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@martin I use the 'Super Duper Thicko System' of only choosing games that don't have a favourite. That's it.
22 trades yesterday 3 lost 19 won
Only lost because I was working and unable to pull out of a trade.
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@julian-drake-clarke keep us updated! how are you selecting games?
