Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@matt-wood created and shared this filter. It is still being tested and refined so please do not put any real money on it yet.
The strategy is simply backing Under 2.5 goals at the start of a match, matches with odds under 1.50 do not qualify.
THIS STRATEGY CAN BE FOUND IN THE PROFITABLE MEMBERS SECTION ON THE SOFTWARE TITLED: Under 2.5 Goals Matt's Set & Forget
You can view the results here (Tab named U2.5 Matt): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=1511053721
Leagues will need to be refined as that is still in process.
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@james-menhenitt Morning James, I started it off as a filter for scalping the U2.5 in the first 20mins of a match but was not getting that working.
Is that how you are using it now?
No problem giving you the data, I did not record goal times on this though, having said that would you still want it?
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@matt-wood Hi Matt - only just realised this had disappeared from the daily filters! I was doing OK with it but using it as a 15 min strategy rather than S&F.
IF the offer is still there, would love to see the data you'd collected to do some analysis!!
TIA!! -
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
I had thought about this too. Two problems I came up against were, 1 that is spews out sooooo many selections that it becomes a bit of a mammoth task at weekends. Now this in itself is not such a big issue but I have been stupid and started up about 9 or so other tests, some of which are doing much better, so time is a premium. Having said that there is a voice in my head that shouts at me to just suck it up get on with it and stop be so lazy
2nd issue is I don't know how much the fecking World Cup will alter things. I am sure it will be having an impact on all filters so a year on year comparison would maybe not be so accurate. Might need some bigger brains offering thoughts on this though
Fair points! Particularly around impact of WC. I think we’ll all have to tread with caution post WC for a bit.
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@andrew-findlater Yep, my tracking sheets now are huge with as much info as I can think to put into them. It is certainly a skill and tactic to learn when you are starting a new filter, especially in a new market.
I think the more experienced heads on here probably can get away with being a little more focused sometimes as they will tend to know, roughly, what to expect when they start something.
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@matt-wood that’s fair enough, I’m same with tracking just learning the value of it as opposed to seeing it as a chore.
@Ryan / @Martin is there anywhere you know of that provides historical match data that can be exported to excel?
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@andrew-findlater said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@matt-wood obviously It is such a pity, this was one of the first strategies I followed and I had a flair amount of early success, so thank you for that bud really helped me! I haven’t seen any data so this is just a blind suggestion but would it work if you flipped it on its head and used it as an over 2.5 or even an in play over 1.5? What’s the results like in terms of matches (HT/FT) and times of goals scored?
Thanks Andrew glad you got something out of it whilst it was good
Unfortunately I started this test before I learned to record as much data as possible and so only have the total number of goals per game tracked.
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@sean-fitzgerald said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
I think its time I called a halt to my U2.5 testing. Sometimes you just gotta say 'it doesn't work'.
I have tried various improvements and spent hours messing around with the data in my spreadsheet but each time I make an improvement it just does not stick consistently.
There may well be something in this but it will take a brain bigger and better than mine to figure it out
Im perhaps being a little too much glass half full here but I wouldn’t be tossing this yet. I’d like to see how it tracks in the next few months (IE: The same time period it went gangbusters last year).
From memory (and happy to be corrected as don’t have the numbers in front of me) it dropped off in last month of last season and continued to struggle against summer leagues. Maybe it’s just a Sept - March strat?
Just a thought
I had thought about this too. Two problems I came up against were, 1 that is spews out sooooo many selections that it becomes a bit of a mammoth task at weekends. Now this in itself is not such a big issue but I have been stupid and started up about 9 or so other tests, some of which are doing much better, so time is a premium. Having said that there is a voice in my head that shouts at me to just suck it up get on with it and stop be so lazy
2nd issue is I don't know how much the fecking World Cup will alter things. I am sure it will be having an impact on all filters so a year on year comparison would maybe not be so accurate. Might need some bigger brains offering thoughts on this though
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Think it maybe the variance hitting you may with the summer leagues. I had a really good month last month on the over 2.5 system then this month went completely the wrong way so much so that i have deleted the filter.
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@matt-wood obviously It is such a pity, this was one of the first strategies I followed and I had a flair amount of early success, so thank you for that bud really helped me! I haven’t seen any data so this is just a blind suggestion but would it work if you flipped it on its head and used it as an over 2.5 or even an in play over 1.5? What’s the results like in terms of matches (HT/FT) and times of goals scored?
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
I think its time I called a halt to my U2.5 testing. Sometimes you just gotta say 'it doesn't work'.
I have tried various improvements and spent hours messing around with the data in my spreadsheet but each time I make an improvement it just does not stick consistently.
There may well be something in this but it will take a brain bigger and better than mine to figure it out
Im perhaps being a little too much glass half full here but I wouldn’t be tossing this yet. I’d like to see how it tracks in the next few months (IE: The same time period it went gangbusters last year).
From memory (and happy to be corrected as don’t have the numbers in front of me) it dropped off in last month of last season and continued to struggle against summer leagues. Maybe it’s just a Sept - March strat?
Just a thought
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@matt-wood sorry to read this Matt, if u2.5 isn’t profitible can you switch it round to o2.5?
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@matt-wood I don’t think it will work like that as a few stats tend to compliment each other to a point then beyond that generally do nothing to enhance it…..only to reduce the selections. The same applies to higher figures in stats. It will be possible to create 20+ O1.5 systems all getting a SR of about 86% with the same average odds but the main focus after that for me wouldn’t be about improving the SR but in finding the one with a good balance of smoothest variance, the right number of selections and the easiest to logistically apply
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@dan-mackinnon I have wondered about this too, with back testing will it be possible to combine all the O1.5 systems to produce some sort of super system that take the best from them all.
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@martin I’m curious to see how everyone gets on with backtesting. There’s loads of O1.5 filters but all ever so slightly different. It’ll be interesting to see how they compare
