Dan's LTD
-
@matt-wood great thing with the backtesting is we will be able to run all strategies through with all leagues again, so can find out which ones we actually should have removed and vice versa
Will this backtesting be available on the footy stats part of the website?
-
-
Current win streak 1, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Tuesday's Pick
Chile Primera B 02/08/2022 01:30 Copiapo v Melipilla W 2-1
Trades 113
W 90
SR 79.65
P & L + 4.75 Pts -
Bad day with 2/3 losers but this can happen. Currently on a 2 match losing streak which is the most since I have gone live. I just have to ride out the bad days and hope that I can get another hot run of 17 wins in a row. Will update my picks for tomorrow in a little while for those that are following this.
-
@dan-peacey said in Dan's LTD:
Hi @David-Baker-0,
Yes and No.... In terms of leagues on any given day - yes as I will only pick the leagues in profit at the time. However I need more data so I haven't restricted any leagues yet because what I've found is that profitable leagues can go bad and bad leagues can go good due to variance. My aim is to try and get minimum of 100 matches per league. 100 because, you should know either way if a league is good or not. If for some reason after 100 games it is still a coin toss then I will leave for another 100 matches. I hope that answers your question.
I really like this, I think I am too hasty to remove leagues sometimes.
I have been coming to the same thoughts as well. Have seen bad leagues turn good and visa versa. Have decided to just keep all leagues in and automate my spreadsheet to collate the leagues, if a league drops below a minimum level then its not traded until it comes back above that level.
-
@dan-peacey said in Dan's LTD:
Hi @David-Baker-0,
Yes and No.... In terms of leagues on any given day - yes as I will only pick the leagues in profit at the time. However I need more data so I haven't restricted any leagues yet because what I've found is that profitable leagues can go bad and bad leagues can go good due to variance. My aim is to try and get minimum of 100 matches per league. 100 because, you should know either way if a league is good or not. If for some reason after 100 games it is still a coin toss then I will leave for another 100 matches. I hope that answers your question.
I really like this, I think I am too hasty to remove leagues sometimes.
-
@dan-peacey Yes thanks very much
-
Hi @David-Baker-0,
Yes and No.... In terms of leagues on any given day - yes as I will only pick the leagues in profit at the time. However I need more data so I haven't restricted any leagues yet because what I've found is that profitable leagues can go bad and bad leagues can go good due to variance. My aim is to try and get minimum of 100 matches per league. 100 because, you should know either way if a league is good or not. If for some reason after 100 games it is still a coin toss then I will leave for another 100 matches. I hope that answers your question.
-
Hi Dan have just copied your filter,have you restricted any leagues?
-
Current win streak 0, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Mondays Picks
Finland Veikkausliiga 01/08/2022 16:00 HIFK v Inter Turku W 0-3
Ireland Premier Division 01/08/2022 17:00 Drogheda v UC Dublin L1-1
Argentina Primera Nacional 01/08/2022 19:00 Almagro v Temperley L 1-1Overall Results
Trades 112
W 89
SR 79.46
P & L + 4.45 Pts -
Current win streak 0, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Todays Picks
Singapore Premier League 31/07/2022 10:30 Balestier Khalsa v Young Lions W 2-0
South Korea K League 2 31/07/2022 11:30 Anyang v Busan W 1-0
Malaysia Super League 31/07/2022 12:30 Sabah v Malacca United W 2-1
Finland Veikkausliiga 31/07/2022 13:00 Haka v KuPS W 2-1
Finland Veikkausliiga 31/07/2022 14:00 SJK v AC Oulu W 3-2
Chile Primera B 31/07/2022 16:00 Magallanes v Deportes Iquique W 1-0
Finland Ykkonen 31/07/2022 16:30 Gnistan v SJK Akatemia L 0-0
Peru Liga 1 31/07/2022 17:00 Alianza v Atl. Carlos Stein W 2-1
Chile Primera Division 31/07/2022 18:30 U. De Chile v Colo Colo W 1-3
Peru Liga 1 31/07/2022 19:00 Grau v U. San Martin W 1-0
Peru Liga 1 31/07/2022 21:30 Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima L 0-0Trades 109
W 88
SR 80.73
P & L + 6.26 Pts -
Current win streak 0, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Saturdays Picks
Paraguay Primera Division 30/07/2022 00:15 Nacional Asuncion v Sol de America W 3-0
USA Mls 30/07/2022 04:00 Los Angeles FC v Seattle Sounders W 2-1
Singapore Premier League 30/07/2022 10:30 Tampines v Hougang W 2-4
Sweden Allsvenskan 30/07/2022 14:00 Degerfors v Kalmar W 2-1
Finland Ykkonen 30/07/2022 15:00 JaPS v PIF Pargas W 4-1
Finland Ykkonen 30/07/2022 15:00 TPS v Jaro W 3-1
Finland Veikkausliiga 30/07/2022 15:00 Honka v VPS W 4-0
Sweden Superettan 30/07/2022 16:00 AFC Eskilstuna v Dalkurd L 0-0
Estonia Meistriliiga 30/07/2022 17:30 Tallinna Kalev v Narva W 5-2
USA Mls 30/07/2022 20:00 Minnesota v Portland Timbers L 4-4Trades 98
W 79
SR 80.61
P & L +5.54 Pts -
Current win streak 0, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Fridays Pick
Finland Veikkausliiga 29/07/2022 16:00 Lahti v Ilves L 1-1
Trades 88
W 71
SR 80.68
P & L + 4.97 -
Current win streak 1, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Thursdays Picks
Argentina Primera Nacional 28/07/2022 00:05 All Boys v Sacachispas W 2-1
Argentina Primera Nacional 28/07/2022 01:35 Belgrano v Ind. Rivadavia L 1-1
Peru Liga 1 28/07/2022 02:00 Cesar Vallejo v U. de Deportes W 1-0Trades 87
W 71
SR 81.61
P & L + 6.03 Pts -
Current win streak 8, largest win streak 17, largest lose streak 2
Wednesdays Picks
Peru Liga 1 27/07/2022 02:00 Alianza Lima v Alianza Atl. Match Abandoned
South Korea K League 2 27/07/2022 11:00 Busan v Gwangju FC W 0-2
Peru Liga 1 27/07/2022 19:00 U. San Martin v Ayacucho L 3-3
Peru Liga 1 27/07/2022 21:15 Dep. Municipal v ADT Tarma W 1-0Trades 84
W 69
SR 82.14
P & L + 6.29 Pts -
@nick-purkis said in Dan's LTD:
Thanks Dan, going to give this a go. Do you let these run or trade out once a goal goes in and you are in profit?
I found that if the underdog scores first early on, then you will still be in the red because the odds of the draw will actually come in. I accept that will be periods of losers and also I'm still trialling so I can hone in on the best leagues. At the minute I'm doing the ones that are profitable on the day, I still need more data from all the leagues that I'm testing, but im slowly getting an idea which ones to keep and which to ditch.
-
@nick-purkis said in Dan's LTD:
@dan-peacey I have just traded my first 5 games using this method and they have all been winners, so really happy with this strategy so far. Unfortunately I haven’t been letting them run so have t made as much as if I had done so. Although I have still made a 25% ROI per game so still very happy with that. I may try the set and forget method and see how I get on. What sort of stakes are you using?
I am using 1% liability of my balance. So if you had ÂŁ1000 balance then you would be risking ÂŁ10 per game, which means staking of min ÂŁ2.50 if odds were at 5.
-
@dan-peacey said in Dan's LTD:
I've also worked out that I need 4 winning trades to every 1 losing to be profitable, which should equate to a SR of 80%. So far I'm 4.64 to 1.
Do you enter at predetermined odds or whatever the starting ones are? You could always consider queuing in your trades to get better odds
-
@dan-peacey I have just traded my first 5 games using this method and they have all been winners, so really happy with this strategy so far. Unfortunately I haven’t been letting them run so have t made as much as if I had done so. Although I have still made a 25% ROI per game so still very happy with that. I may try the set and forget method and see how I get on. What sort of stakes are you using?
