Womens Euro Final
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For the last 3 weeks, i've been trading the Women's Euros; it wasn't easy as there wasn't much data to go on, but one thing became immediately clear in the group stages that these games were predominently high scoring. so much so, I was able to carve out a small profit in the overs markets. When it came to the semi finals, with so much at stake, I expected England and Sweden to play more defensively; the overs markets were probably a non-starter, so I started looking elsewhere, which is when the Match Odds market caught my eye. despite their ranking and previous form in the tournament so far, Sweden were priced at 4.00 at the start of the game, what appeared to be a clear bias to the home team, but ultimately proved the market had got it right. However, the one that amazed me was when England scored their first goal, Sweden shot out to 12 and after the England's second, Sweden were priced way out at 50. Given that a single goal from Sweden would have brought them back into the game and that they were well capable of doing so, these odds seemed ridiculously out of kilter to what the true odss ought to have been. Nevertheless, the market got it right and the rest is history as they say. Now, looking today, I can Germany priced similarly for Sunday's final; could this be an opportiunity to go against the market? I would be interested to hear an experienced trader's view on this.
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@richard-etherington so difficult because of the home advantage for England, I think it's a coin flip and the edge for England is based purely on being at home.
My only trade has been backing England at the start of the tournament, given the form we had been in prior to it I couldn't believe the decent odds available. I've not greened up yet but probably should, it was only small though so may let it run.
