Beginner Trading Journey
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@chris-king really interesting stuff there! Great work.
Looking forward to getting in to the inplay trading once I get a bit more time.
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@connor-garland Thanks. What i thought was just tracking my filter on those two markets as set and forget on selections of 1.2+ O1.5G and 1.5+ O2.5G and see how it goes/adjust accordingly.
I’m trading this filter in-play and only on the second half goal market at the moment with £1 stakes (tracking to £10 stakes still).
Still getting to grips with how best to enter as selections often give short odds and there’s often an early goal, but i know there is a 74% SR of a goal after 60 mins on any score line so depending on the score line and how the match is going i try to get in at 1.35-1.5 either way. Ideally there is no early goal and i can get in at 1.4+ To 1.5.
Initially i wanted a half time entry O0.5G set and forget strategy on this market so was getting in at a minimum of 1.25, often putting in an order at half time, which was looking profitable but a few losers is damaging so I’ve naturally adapted to later entry which also means i can decide wether to go in after an early goal.
Some matches i have to miss due to short odds/no value and/or early goals so my trading strike rate is lower than the statistical strike rate.
One thing i have been looking at is laying U1.5G at half time on another filter which has been profitable but is struggling to tread water now.
The one I’m trading SHG has a better strike rate on that market so may have to switch unless the other turns around.In the screen shot below you can see i have only traded about half of the matches. The first half was testing but I’ve been using this filter in various tests for about 8-9 months now and the stats always seem to be consistent so i had some confidence going forward with it.
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@chris-king said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Well done, this looks very impressive. Hope this continues well for you.
I have a filter that has returned very similar strike rates for both O1.5G and O2.5G over the past 2.5 months i am now tempted to test as set and forget on both markets.Good to hear your strategies are doing well! Are yours inplay?
I’m hoping this data set is the basis of all my strategies going forwards. Thought it start off with the basics.
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Well done, this looks very impressive. Hope this continues well for you.
I have a filter that has returned very similar strike rates for both O1.5G and O2.5G over the past 2.5 months i am now tempted to test as set and forget on both markets. -
Selections 28/07/2022
Over 1.5:
El Gounah vs El Ismaily -
@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Set & Sleep Selections 28/07/2022
Over 1.5:
U. Sucre vs Royal Pari
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio-1.47pts
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@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Selections 27/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Busan vs Gwangju
Pahang vs Selangor
Smouha vs Arab Contractors
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund
Negeri vs Terengganu
Misr Elmaqasah vs Al AhlyOver 2.5:
Kuala Lumpur vs Kedah
Negeri vs Terengganu
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund
Fredrikstad vs Raufoss
U. Sucre vs Royal PariOver 1.5:
+0.9ptsOver 2.5:
+1.43ptsOverall:
+2.33pts -
Set & Sleep Selections 28/07/2022
Over 1.5:
U. Sucre vs Royal Pari
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio -
@dan-mackinnon said in Beginner Trading Journey:
@chris-osborne said in Beginner Trading Journey:
@connor-garland looks promising but I would be concerned about the volume.
It’s a quiet day for football and your still getting quite a few selections, what’s going to happen in a few weeks when winter Leagues start hitting your filters?
Speaking from experience here I had a filter that was getting over 100 selections a day on a busy weekend, which I couldn’t cope with emotionally or from a bankroll point of view.
Just following on from this, I had a quick look at your results and on 7th May there was 89 selections, most of those between 2pm-5pm. It's not a problem if you're looking to set them early and get on with your day, however your current staking plan is 2pts and 1pt which exceeds your bank.
You could change it to 1pt and 0.5pts? Even with a reduced bank, based on your results it'll still grow massively and you won't miss any trades. Or, you'll have to manually start trading games when they group together which would change your current approach and you'll likely be trading over 100% of your bank during busy periods. I wouldn't recommend that purely from a emotional perspective
Very good point @Chris-Osborne .This is something I was thinking about this weekend with having over half my bankroll tied up as it’s a quiet period in the grand scheme things.
I think i will look at the data closer to the period to see where I can filter the selections down more than it currently is but @Dan-MacKinnon I do like your suggestion for the reduced stakes. Risk is spread over more selections that way!
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@chris-osborne said in Beginner Trading Journey:
@connor-garland looks promising but I would be concerned about the volume.
It’s a quiet day for football and your still getting quite a few selections, what’s going to happen in a few weeks when winter Leagues start hitting your filters?
Speaking from experience here I had a filter that was getting over 100 selections a day on a busy weekend, which I couldn’t cope with emotionally or from a bankroll point of view.
also on this if you grow you may find it harder to get matched on smaller leagues with large stakes not enough money in the market
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@chris-osborne said in Beginner Trading Journey:
@connor-garland looks promising but I would be concerned about the volume.
It’s a quiet day for football and your still getting quite a few selections, what’s going to happen in a few weeks when winter Leagues start hitting your filters?
Speaking from experience here I had a filter that was getting over 100 selections a day on a busy weekend, which I couldn’t cope with emotionally or from a bankroll point of view.
Just following on from this, I had a quick look at your results and on 7th May there was 89 selections, most of those between 2pm-5pm. It's not a problem if you're looking to set them early and get on with your day, however your current staking plan is 2pts and 1pt which exceeds your bank.
You could change it to 1pt and 0.5pts? Even with a reduced bank, based on your results it'll still grow massively and you won't miss any trades. Or, you'll have to manually start trading games when they group together which would change your current approach and you'll likely be trading over 100% of your bank during busy periods. I wouldn't recommend that purely from a emotional perspective
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@connor-garland looks promising but I would be concerned about the volume.
It’s a quiet day for football and your still getting quite a few selections, what’s going to happen in a few weeks when winter Leagues start hitting your filters?
Speaking from experience here I had a filter that was getting over 100 selections a day on a busy weekend, which I couldn’t cope with emotionally or from a bankroll point of view.
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Selections 27/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Busan vs Gwangju
Pahang vs Selangor
Smouha vs Arab Contractors
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund
Negeri vs Terengganu
Misr Elmaqasah vs Al AhlyOver 2.5:
Kuala Lumpur vs Kedah
Negeri vs Terengganu
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund
Fredrikstad vs Raufoss
U. Sucre vs Royal Pari -
@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Set & Sleep Selections 27/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Patriotas vs Jaguares de CordobaOver 2.5:
Patriotas vs Jaguares de Cordoba
Oriente Petrolero vs GuabiraOver 1.5:
-2ptsOver 2.5:
+0.02ptsOverall:
-1.98pts -
Set & Sleep Selections 27/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Patriotas vs Jaguares de CordobaOver 2.5:
Patriotas vs Jaguares de Cordoba
Oriente Petrolero vs Guabira -
@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Selections 26/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Gyeongnam vs Ansan Greeners
T-Team vs PDRM
Orgryte vs Vasteras
MISC-MIFA vs Sabah
Malacca United vs Penang
Al Ittihad vs EnppiOver 2.5:
Gyeongname vs Ansan Greeners
Oster vs AFC Eskilstuna
Fjolnir vs FylkirOver 1.5:
+4.04ptsOver 2.5:
+0.63ptsOverall:
+4.67pts -
Selections 26/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Gyeongnam vs Ansan Greeners
T-Team vs PDRM
Orgryte vs Vasteras
MISC-MIFA vs Sabah
Malacca United vs Penang
Al Ittihad vs EnppiOver 2.5:
Gyeongname vs Ansan Greeners
Oster vs AFC Eskilstuna
Fjolnir vs Fylkir -
@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Set & Sleep Selections 26/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Volta Redonda vs YpirangaOver 1.5:
+0.82pts -
@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Selections 25/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Inter Turku vs Honka
SJK Aketemia vs KPV
Stjordals Blink vs Bryne
Sandnes vs Asante
Sogndal vs Stabaek
Norrkoping vs Goteborg
Varbergs vs Hammarby
Trelleborg vs Skovde AIK
Akranes vs Fram
KR vs Valur
San Lorenzo vs Talleres Cordoba
Paysandu vs Figueirense
Union Espanola vs Curico Unido
Operario vs Tombense
Banfield vs Argentinos JrsOver 2.5:
Inter Turku vs Honka
Stjordals Blink vs Bryne
K. Oslo vs Ranheim
Sandnes vs Asane
Trelleborgs vs Skovde AIK
Akranes vs Fram
Banfield vs Argentinos JrsOver 1.5:
+3.9ptsOver 2.5:
-0.36ptsOverall:
+3.54pts -
Set & Sleep Selections 26/07/2022
Over 1.5:
Volta Redonda vs Ypiranga
