MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
-
@james-everard also what I find is that people struggle with downswings when they have to wait to recover it, like with high strike rate required strats, very mentally tough!
-
@martin Thanks Martin , it has taken me a long time to get here but think i am finally on the right road. I spent far too long with strategies where you needed a high strike rate to be profitable and with variance i wasn't making any money.
I have taken one bit of advice which seems to have turned the table which is regarding odds getting within price ranges and the strike rates don't need to be so high and you can still be in profit with the variance. -
@james-everard thanks for the update, following with interest well done!
-
HI All , thought i would do an update on my football systems and i will update July's results in a few days time. Here are my results from June ( albeit a little late)
System 1-LCS on 60mins if no 2nd half goal -
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50System 2 -Laying the Underdog
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/r 20%
Lost of -£16.77System 3
Lay unders for h1 goal
Trades 12
Won 3
Lost 9
s/rate 36.36%
Lost -£34.58System 3 Back over 1.56 goals odds 1.56
Trades 47
Won 28
Lost 19
S/Rate 59.57%
Lost -£28.58System 4 - Injury Time goal
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/rate 20%
Profit £88.21System 5- H2 Goal lcs on 60mins
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50Profit for June across all the strategies is £41.78 , and the new bank for the start of June was £436.78 and new stakes for the month of £8.75.
I reviewed my strategies further and have added a 2.5 goal set and forget and amended the 1.5 system to also be a set and forget at 2.28 odds.
The injury time system i have also changed to a split stake late goal system going in on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins .
The first half goal market i have also amended ,i am also doing split staking on 31,35,40 and 44 mins
Will update the results for July in a few days time but looking at my bank now i have a made healthy profit this month and finally feel i am getting the rewards looking much more at the odds rather than strike rate.
For instance the 2.5 system working on a 50% strike rate i would still be in profit -
Potentials for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
12noon-!sweden div 1 norra-Stockholm internationals vs motala
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Canvelas vs Vila San Carlos
20.00 USA mls- Charlotte vs New York red bulls
Back over 1.5 goals odds 1.56
13.00 Sweden div2 norrland- skellerftea vs gottneif
13.00 Sweden div 2 norrland- Bodens vs Ostersund ifk
15.00 Sweden div2 svealand- hudiksvalls vs ifk stock subs
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Cominicaciones vs Uai Urquiza
-
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
A few are on my filters for the weekend but some leagues aren’t on betfair so will be very few if any. A couple of months ago I would be desperate to find a trade now it doesn’t bother me if no trades to do I look at in a different light.
How’s your trading been ?
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
-
Nothing for weds either!
-
Nothing for Tuesday either
-
No trades for today
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Today list
2nd half goal back next overs odds 1.56
14.30 Sweden div1 Norra- Umea vs Sylvia (won £4.34 goal 90min)
18.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys ( no trade didn’t get matched goal 60th)
———————————————————————————
Back over1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget14.00 Sweden div1 norra- Umea vs Sylvia( no trade goals too early to get matched at odds req)
15.00 Sweden div 2- Ragsveds vs Jarfalla
(won £4.41 goals 55,60th)
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco ( won £8.83 ent ht 1-1 ft)19.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
missed trade would won————————————————————————————BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
(won £24.00. Ent 49mins 1-1 ft goals 47,58mins)
LAY AWAY SIDE IF TAKES LEAD
23.00 Argentina Prem C- Excursionistas vs El Porvenir ( no trade 0-0 ft)
Promising day Sunday see above the results
-
Today list
2nd half goal back next overs odds 1.56
14.30 Sweden div1 Norra- Umea vs Sylvia
18.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
———————————————————————————
Back over1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget14.00 Sweden div1 norra- Umea vs Sylvia
15.00 Sweden div 2- Ragsveds vs Jarfalla
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
19.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
————————————————————————————BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
LAY AWAY SIDE IF TAKES LEAD
23.00 Argentina Prem C- Excursionistas vs El Porvenir
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side)No trades yesterday the favourite won and they other match was postponed
Watchlist for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros vs Herman’s colmenares (WON £4.33 goal 70th)Back ov 1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget
18.30 Sweden div 2- kvarnsvedens vs sandvikens (LOST £7.90 FT 0-0)
23.15. Uruguay prem- catorque vs river plate
( LOST £7.90 FT 0-0)
BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
23.15 Uruguay prem- catotque vs river plateLay home side if takes lead
22.15 Venezuelan -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side)No trades yesterday the favourite won and they other match was postponed
Watchlist for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros vs Herman’s colmenaresBack ov 1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget
18.30 Sweden div 2- kvarnsvedens vs sandvikens
23.15. Uruguay prem- catorque vs river plateBTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
23.15 Uruguay prem- catotque vs river plateLay home side if takes lead
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros cs hermans colmenares -
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side) -
Been recording my results for may which was a long process with all records on paper and doing it the old fashioned way using a calculator, think I need to get looking for a lap top sooner rather than later.
My bank at the start of May was £254.02 and using 2% stakes equated to £5.08 stakes. Like I mentioned I thought I had a good month and so it came to be.results below for 5 strategies that I have traded for may.BTTS odds 2.08 . This is a set and forget strategy after a ok month in April hasn’t produced , think though the summer leagues should perform better and I am going to change the entry odds to 2.28 and see how the system gets on in June
Trades 48, won 22, lost 26, s/r 46% loss -(£4.40)
Lay the underdog - this has continued to perform month on month for me, not many trades this month due to the conclusion of the winter leagues and the summer South America leagues generally not enough matches meet the criteria of come backs but hopefully the Scandinavian leagues will be fruitful
Trades 8, won 4, lost 4 s/r 50% profit £32.53
Back over 1.5 goal set and forget odds 1.56. This performed well, if an early goal keep the trade going hoping to matched later on
Trades 39, won 28, lost 11, s/r 71.79% profit £30.27
Back 2nd half goal odds 1.56 on the next overs market. Put a back bet at odds of 1.56 and wait to be matched , usually this is between about 53-68mins.
Trades 11, won 10, lost 1 ,s/r 90.91% profit £23.16
Lcs 0-0 for ht or back over 0.5 fh goals another great profitable system, if I can get a match ideally Lcs 0-0 for the half time score if a goal comes in I put another lay on the current score at odds of 1.05 and you will be surprised how often they can get matched around the 40th min mark and had 3 matches that had a further goal and built up the profit nicely
Trades 17, won 14, lost 3, s/r 84% profit £59.53
Profit overall for may was £141.09 and add that to the bank it now gives me a trading bank for June of £395.11 and the new stakes will be £7.90
-
@james-everard this is great news to wake up to!
-
@james-everard Great news James, looking forward to the update on the shiny new laptop
Its amazing how relaxed things become when you get a handle on the discipline side of things. -
for May I have continued with the same discipline as last month and feel I have got to grips with my mentality now, I feel a lot more relaxed in my trading.
My laptop packed up early in the month so not managed to update results on my spreadsheet, will be buying a new one in the next couple of weeks.
I have been recording my results though and will go through them tomorrow/thurs but looking at my account, looks like it has been my best month so far and an increase in my stakes is now due.
Will update on this blog in a couple of days once I have the data analysed , no matches Tom which is good -
@james-everard fantastic news well done! Keep up the good work
