Getting into Tennis

Giorgio

Hi Guys

As the main league ended will have more time to spend looking at different opportunities.

I have followed tennis here and there, but never continuously, maybe is time to get involved.

Started today with a little budget to test and found some good results ( thanks @Martin for your Filters).

Layed Radacanu after the first set and than Layed Baez after went 2-0 against Zverev.
Was able to remove the liability not too late after entered the trade so can really see opportunities there.

My question is

Where I should start with tennis?
How to master this sport?

Any suggestion welcome

Giorgio

Recap of the week end

Otte - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini after the first set, Otte did not have a chance ended
-0,2 points

Medved - Mannarino

Layed Medved during the 2nd set when game 4-2 for Medved,Mannarino got the break back and went 5-5,
cash out for a +0.5 Profit

Evans - Thompson
Layed Evans begginign of the 2nd set,Thompson lost the serve ,Layed Evans again and Thompson got the Break back,5th game Thompson went 40-0
cash out for +0,4 profit

Zeng - Wang Layed Zeng during the 2nd set when 3-3 @1.19 Wang won the break and close the 2nd set winning

Cash out for +1.2 profit

Murray - Berrettini

Layed Berrettini at the beggining of the 2nd,Murray won the 2nd set
Cash out for a profit +0.8

All the players that I have layed Won the game but I ended up in +2.7p
There is a Room in the Tennis which makes me exited to get into more than before.

My risk as always been between 0.3/0.6p so that shows huge potential.
I had to watch to game and be on top of it,as a game can be easily lost even if a players goes 40-0.Had to be there and ready to intervene.
Downside you can watch the game but you need to watch the score as well as picture are delayed and a second can mean lose. So not really exited to watch a game knowing the score ahead.But once out of the trade I have ended up watching the game fully and enjoy.

New tournament starting from tomorrow.Definitely something to look forward

Giorgio

@chris-osborne Yes Chris,totally agree with that.
Sometime you dont even need a break to cover some of liability,can be enough if the players goes 30-0 40-0 to make some cover.

Yes,I tent to green up when I can,but specially when I wait for the underdog to come back in the game,if happens I take the green and leave.

For today Tennis as we reach the Semi-Final found a bit harder to run some analysis

Otte - Berrettini - still strong on grass Berrettini,look a bit overweight tho.Is preparing for Wimbledon and Otte rest from yesterday might lead to a 3 set game.Will value if Berrettini takes the lead to lay him after the 1st set

Murray - Kyrgios - Murray In a great Shape, really few errors against Tsitsipas ,will probably wait how the first set shapes and than decide

Medved - Mannarino might Lay Medved at lower odds trading @ 1.25 atm,will wait for in live action and decide if intervene or not. Mannarino last title winner of the tournament never beat a top 10 but could be a tought game for Medved

? Offline

@giorgio Very good day good to see

Big difference for me between Football and Tennis is that for tennis you can be in and out of the market very quickly only takes a break of serve from the player you are backing to see some profit and if they then hold there serve then that is ideal.

What I tend to do regardless of strategy although it is player dependent especially in the WTA, is remove half my liability on the break and the rest if they hold serve. I could also cash out after the break.

No matter what has happened, I will never stay in a trade after the end of a set. Learnt that one the hard way left too many free bets to ride to the end of a set and ended up with a scratch trade instead of banking profit.

Some experienced tennis traders enter the market numerous times during a match I'm no where near that, I have strategies for all three sets, although will only enter in the third if I have a green screen from the first two sets.

Problems occur which I have been finding alot lately is when the player you are opposing breaks first.

Giorgio

Recap for the day

Sonego - Berretini - Layed Sonego at the end of the first set,was able to take the liability off at beginning of the 2 set,left the rest and got a 0,8p profit

Tsitsipas - Murray, was the game of the day for me,backed Murray pre match @2.78,an hour pre game could get a 0.2p profit,odd dropped to 2.38 lowest.Stayed in the game, and was able to remove 50% liability at the Tie break and the other half at the the end of the first set.
Left in the rest for a Murray win that came for a 1.6p profit

Kachanov - Aliassime had the opportunity to back Aliassime when lost the break at the first set, hesitated to long and he got the break back and won the first set.missed that opportunity.Layed Aliassime at the beginning of the second set.Kachanov did not take any break so was not able to cover my liability.Lost of 0.2p

Left the pc after those game so did not get involved in Fucsovics - Kyrgios and Medved -Ivahska

Tho

Was keen to lay Medved pre game @1.20/1.25, It would have give me some profit in the first set during the Tie Break as the odds of Medved to Win rise to 1.7 ish so could have either remove liability or take the profit.

Was as a great day overall.

Can see opportunity in Tennis. Something to dig more next coming days.

What learnt today- should have be more prepared on Murray.Did have a strategy to reduce liability if he have taken the lead but did not have any other exit point/entry point.Need to find the right mindset for tennis as it is a totally different world from football.Need to get prepare for any possible outcome and be ready to re enter or exit if things goes wrong.
By looking at the game, felt Murray had always the control of the game and when the odd took 4 on back Murray should have gone in again.But will probably learn with time.

Any tips are welcome as completely new world to me from a trading point of view.I knew majority of the players but from a trading prospective did not have a clue

Edit : How gonna see football with the same eyes after being involved in Tennis?
Use to consider odd @ 1.5 up potential Value now they look ridiculously low

? Offline

@giorgio mainly Twitter I’m afraid, Or the ATP/WTA websites

I’ll post some reliable links later

Giorgio

@chris-osborne wonderful Chris ,thanks for heads up

Any good source for those sort of information?

? Offline

@giorgio excellent analysis, I haven’t really looked at anything for this week, my one comment would be Berretini been out injured for a few weeks, this is his first tournament for a while

Giorgio

Also

If I would run the Analysis yesterday probably i would spot to generous odds on Murray match ahead and could have back him @3.25 ish

That could have been a really good scalping.

Any expert on this could share some tips?

Giorgio

Good Morning Guys

Feel like I want to put it down just to check the progress later today but i have done my Tennis Analysis for today and would like to share here,
Happy to hear your opinion.

I have based my study on recent perform , h2h and Elo rating of the player on a specific surface(maybe more valuable than the ranking?found a great website for that, if I can share the link please let me know and happy to do so)

Sonego - Berretini, found odds on Berrettini little bit overvalued would have expect Sonego to win @3.70 ish and Berrettini to win @ 1.25 ish.Market this morning was pay Berrettini @1.57 now dropped to 1.48,market seems moving towards Berritini,will consider to back him if lose a break in the first set(ideally before the third/forth game) or lay Sonego if he win the first Set.

Tsitsipas - Murray

Murray performing well on grass, The Brit even opted to skip 90% of the European clay swing to rest and prepare himself for the grass season.

Backed him this morning at 2.78 as found the odds really generous.I Was actually right as he trade at 2.37 atm.Might remove my Liability and leave it for a profit if he win.Helped to find an opportunity on scalping if digging really well on tennis.Maybe will come with time.

Fucsovics - Kyrgios thinking is a game were we likely will see the third set.Can’t see much of value on either of them at the moment. But will consider to Lay the first set winner

Kachanov - Aliassime found a nice value to back Kachanov in this game.Did not.Market was open @3 to back him now trade @3.35.
Might consider to Lay Aliassime if win the first set or Back Aliassime if lose the service within the first 3/4 games.

Medved - Ivahska Feel like the market doesn’t mirror the value of the players.Think Medved @1.25 worth to be Layed.Have not.But think as a really good Value.The fact that has been denied to play in Wimbledon could affect is motivation.
Watch some of the last game of him,seems really demotivated so could be a good opportunity.

That is what I got for today.

Analysed some other games but could not find Value.
Will try to be sticked with ATP for a bit and see how I perform and getting to know the players.

Football is really limited for now so is a great opportunity to get involved in Tennis.

Any online sources were to get info is really welcome(no tips) or any of my thought that could be wrong I will be really pleased if someone can give a feedback.

Have a great day

Ryan

@giorgio I export the selections in the morning to a spreadsheet matey, then I have all the stats I need on there.

Martin

@giorgio hmm may be a way of keeping them on all day

Giorgio

@chris-osborne thank yo@u so much for this !

Gives me something to look at when analysing the match!Thanks so much

@Ryan @Martin @Adam, made one filter today and filtered few games,but in tennis rarely the match play when scheduled, had some games to look at but as they were schedule at 3 and they are playing now cannot find a way to recall those games on the software to see the stats as they disappeared.

Any other way to fix this?

? Offline

@giorgio Be good to have more people trading tennis - maybe have a look at the main tennis thread

One stat I'd look at is the Projected Hold which is in the Forecast section of the stats - this is Kalinskaya v Bencic later today: -

0_1654684237384_72fc871a-eee3-4d90-a498-e97745bf45fc-image.png

Bencic is a clear favourite 1.14 but Kalinskaya's Projected Hold stats are 6pts better 59.07 v 53.13. This would lend itself to a strategy around Projected Hold of Frode's which @Ryan reposted about a week ago.

0_1654684291093_7b2082e7-4324-48bd-bf4e-06d86cb627b7-image.png

Another stat I like is Won 1st Set lost 2nd or Lost 1st Set won 2nd which is useful for LAy 1st Set winner: -

0_1654686425571_a87a88ca-a6ca-4477-9c9e-00dc1a0ee4ff-image.png

These are Bencic's for today's game, anything over 40% is worth looking further into

Giorgio

Ok Guys

More and more time spend on tennis more I see potential on trading this sport.
To get into more serious way on trading tennis I might need some advices.

-Software - hard to set up a filter as number and percentage different than football, but can we filter according to type of court they playing?
Found a good indicator when looking at h2h how they perform in that particular court, can be translate to the software?
Example A vs B on a clay surface,Player A comes from a 8w2L out last 10 games vs Player B 5w5L, can be filtered?

-Pre match analysis - Im looking at the starting odds and the previous performs of a player, if found something that doesn’t match with the odds I can consider as good start point to get involved in that trade.Than I need to wait for the moment.How to spot the moment?

-In live - I do love lay the first set winner but do not wanna find myself jumping from trade to trade just cos the odd is convenient.What is something that I cannot miss? H2H helps but is there something more?