Members Filter - Under 3.5 Goals - Another EASY Football Trading Strategy for 2022 (Betfair)
-
For those that saw my video this week on YouTube who are asking for a members filter to be created I put together a filter for this (its not perfect and is how I would initially start using the stats to get games) in the video below
https://www.loom.com/share/9ebb7d7c6299405eba90fbb3f1c7010e
You will see in the video I haven't added the % of combined 0-10 & 11-20 that I have included in your filter which makes it even easier to spot games.This is the filter settings
Download this
Go to the football stats
You will see import from file
Copy this text put it in the box0_1645177938217_filter-settings-2.txt
Full instructions here:
If you've not seen the video its here (if you have seen it, watch it again on mute repeatedly so that my video beats @Martin, deal?)
-
@Jonathan-West I just uploaded the filter and have been taking my selections from that. There are far too many to trade all. Then i’ve just stuck to the rules and timings (aiming to be in at 11.30-11:50 on the clock then set a 5 minute timer, and out when time is up). I haven’t always stuck to the odds though but my average odds is within the parameters.
-
@Chris-King are you checking any other stats for the games that come up in Ryan's strategy or trading every one?
-
Well @Dan-MacKinnon I had a little test getting in at 40’ and out at 50’ using the Over 1.5 Goal Lay market on a few random matches
Here is my thinking. Using £1.00 stakes on the current Over 1.5 Goal market, if we get in at approx lay odds 2.0 (Lay over 1.5 goals) at 40’ it’s possible to make a reasonable profit of 10-20% of stake value between 40’ and HT-50’ (Exiting the trade)
If a goal is scored our lay market reverts to the current Over 0.5 Goal market which is still very short odds and doesn’t leave us with such a heavy loss (see below for an approximate idea of a loss). There is also the option of staying in a losing position until 50’ to reduce the loss value a little.
£1.00 Stakes
In 40’ 1.88 - 2.13 Out 50’ Win £0.11 (Lay Over 2.5 Al-Arabi Umm Quwain v Al Hamriyah)
In 40’ 2.06 - 1.38 Out HT Loss -£0.50 (Lay Over 1.5 Stade Renard v Fauve Azur Elite)
In 40’ 1.54 - 1.74 Out 50’ Win £0.11 (Lay Over 1.5 Floy Flekkeroy v Valerenga II)
In 40’ 1.47 - 1.73 Out 50’ Win £0.13 (Lay Over 2.5 FK Riteriai II v MFD Zalgiris Vilnius)
In 40’ 1.94 - 2.52 Out 50’ Win £0.22 (Lay Over 2.5 Elche v Andorra CF)
In 40’ 2.40 - 3.15 Out 50’ Win £0.23 (Lay Over 2.5 Gubbio v Carrarese)
In 40’ 2.14 - 2.76 Out 50’ Win £0.22 (Lay Over 2.5 Fermana v Perugia)
In 40’ 1.94 - 2.38 Out 50’ Win £0.18 (Lay Over 1.5 Carshalton Athletic FC v Canvey Island)
P/L £.0.70
-
@Chris-King said in Members Filter - Under 3.5 Goals - Another EASY Football Trading Strategy for 2022 (Betfair):
This has made me think of a similar possible unders 40 mins to Half Time strategy.
In all my testing every single strategy has far less goals approaching HT; if they come, they come more often early with the greater chance of a goal being early in the half and that diminishing steadily towards HT.
Just not sure which market is best, the lower the risk the better depending on strike rate but thinking Laying O1.5 Goals as that could be somewhere between 1.50-2.0.That’s interesting. I wonder if scorelines impact that. I know sometimes teams will just want to consolidate before the break. The only unknown is the amount of added time
-
@Chris-King smashing it a new one!
-
This has made me think of a similar possible unders 40 mins to Half Time strategy.
In all my testing every single strategy has far less goals approaching HT; if they come, they come more often early with the greater chance of a goal being early in the half and that diminishing steadily towards HT.
Just not sure which market is best, the lower the risk the better depending on strike rate but thinking Laying O1.5 Goals as that could be somewhere between 1.50-2.0. -
Quick update on this weekends results…Yes, it’s coming but when?
This is over 4 days with approx 7-10 trading sessions
-
@Chris-King I know somebody else has also said the same, they said when using lower stakes its like rrr is this worth it but to see it side by side it makes it worthwhile as you won't ever get there if you don't do the lower stakes!
-
@Ryan Thanks, much appreciated. Thank you though for the strategy!
Yes started doing that with my P/L to help me keep perspective and stay persistent. I’ve found it helps. -
@Chris-King Love the start with this! Big fan of your sheet as well because it shows what it would look like in the future when the stakes are larger which helps stay the course!
-
@Martin Thanks, yes pleased with how it went.
-
@Chris-King good start!
-
So here are my results from my first attempt. Odds a little low on the first selection though, hence tiny profit.
Staking here is 1%
I’ve included tables to show the profits for larger stakes.
-
Going to have a try of this one and test/see how I go. Love the idea of being able to trade as and when time permits using a structured approach.
One thing i wasn’t clear on was what we need to check the previous home/away matches for?
In addition if anyone is using iPad or iPhone in Safari to copy/paste the filter text file, it may not work if you just click the file link and then try to copy from the window it opens.
Instead right click the link, select ‘Download Linked File’
Open recent downloads by clicking on the ‘down arrow in a circle’ next to the browser bar at the top of the screen and click to open the file.
This will open the text file in another window again but you’ll be able to copy it now.
Then just paste it in to the football stats ‘Import From File’ box, give it a name, save it and it’s all yours!
-
@Mr-Peter-J-Heckles Its simple this but works!
I haven't found any that work with the stats there might be but I just haven't looked?! Anybody know of any?
-
@Ryan this is brilliant
been trying to find something that fits my lifestyle (family, work, etc...) and this fits perfectly simple and effective 
keep up the good work. I wonder if this could be automated... I guess you should need In game stats. Is there a bit that works with in game stats? -
@brian-doe I use Bet365 or Sofascore if out and about
