John’s Horse Trading Resources
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A lot of stuff seems to go missing in the HRT, especially now it has livened up. I will post anything useful here. Links/files etc.
I will post the links etc in the first comment(this one. They will then be referenced in the relevant comment if applicable. Feel free to question away.
GENERAL RESOURCES
This calculation will work out your drawdown.
=MIN((Y2-MAX($Y$2:Y2))/MAX($Y$2:Y2),0)
You need to apply it to your running total column as I have done in the example below. Make your first row your starting bank. This then needs to be applied to the whole column.
This calculation will then show you your highest bank drawdown. It needs to be applied to the relevant column.
=MIN(AH:AH).
It will then give you a largest drawdown figure like this.
Courtesy of Martin Futter
Odds Probability Table to calculate odds against strike rate
https://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.html
Courtesy of Matt Wood
If anyone uses google sheets and you have your filter S/R, then in the cell next to it put this:
=1/(E16/100)/100 (e16 being the cell with the % S/R)
Should auto calculate the odds required (not counting for commission)
Courtesy of Richard Latimer
Useful Trading Links
www.bettingtools.co.uk
www.aceodds.comEstimate Losing Runs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/HORSE SPECIFIC RESOURCES
Horse Software Tips
Always run two versions of your strategy. One called results with all your filters and one called qualifiers with variables like number of runners removed. You can then filter these manually or on your bot as they change a lot.The Original Maria Staking Thread from 2005.
Essential Horse Trading Links.
https://www.cheltenhambettingoffers.com/articles/glossary/
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing (Information on the days racing and past results)
https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/ (Going and non runners for the day)
Important Definitions for Inrunning trading
Dream maker 62’s LTB
My DOB/TROB/WIN rules
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@John-Folan Yeah, doing really well in the races I can get on. The school run and after school clubs put a bit of a damper on things though!
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Going back to the L2B for a moment...
Dreammaker suggests he will only enter the market if there is plenty of lay money below the current lay price. How much would you regard as plenty? Ive been looking at about £50 at each of the next 3 prices. Its a starting point I guess. Interested to see your take...
BTW I found the guy who created this strategy in a discord group I lurk in...
He posted it in may 2023. Its much the same as the one in your original post. 2 new rules though...- needs to be 6 runners minimum
- must have had at least 4 previous runs
I’m usually looking for about the same. Preferably more. A good sign a horse is expected to fail and people are looking for value and may have already drifted.
Makes sense I usually leave lower runner numbers alone as a matter of course. 4 previous runs is a nice form history to start with as well.
Doing ok with these? Shame they can’t be automated but I just find the stop loss is taken too quickly
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@John-Folan Going back to the L2B for a moment...
Dreammaker suggests he will only enter the market if there is plenty of lay money below the current lay price. How much would you regard as plenty? Ive been looking at about £50 at each of the next 3 prices. Its a starting point I guess. Interested to see your take...
BTW I found the guy who created this strategy in a discord group I lurk in...
He posted it in may 2023. Its much the same as the one in your original post. 2 new rules though...- needs to be 6 runners minimum
- must have had at least 4 previous runs
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Scratch today. 1/1 dobs 0/1 trobs
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@John-Folan unbelievable effort!! Great work
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@John-Folan 19pts on Trobs is insane! Well done
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A nice dob and trob on the only one that hit the odds today. 3 points to finish the month nicely.
So 5 points dobbing and to be honest an unbelievable 19 points on the trobs. This is purely because the dobs pick from a wider odds range and you get two points back for a trob and only one for a dob. Dobs are still running a bit short on strike rate so hopefully some lovely positive variance is coming my way. Trobs are literally where they should be. Both methods I am happy to say have hit new bank highs.
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan very consistent stuff
Took a long time to start performing again after Covid.
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@John-Folan very consistent stuff
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Nice three points today after a very quiet weekend. 1/1 Trob and 1/1 Dob
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No selections yesterday. Should have one hit today.
In other news my pace lays have massively recovered and are looking good after a disastrous March in which all my strategies failed. Will post at the end of the month so I have a full three months forward testing. Also have a strategy dobbing certain favorites that’s tested ok over three months will do the same there.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Sounds better than it is! I cover my arse a bit
It’s a not a true QOB. I have a bot set up to put a point on each, HDOB, DOB, TOB and QOB. If the horse HDOBs I lose 2.5 points, DOBs I lose .5 of a point. TOBs I gain 2.5 points and QOBs I gain 6.5 points
Not a bad move. I do dob/trob. So risking 2 points to win 3. I will be adding the win in on the trob range soon as they are pretty decent too. May as well rinse a horse for as much as possible for minimal risk. I am now going to be looking at your breakdown to see if that works for me on my picks.
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@John-Folan Sounds better than it is! I cover my arse a bit
Its not a true QOB. I have a bot set up to put a point on each, HDOB, DOB, TOB and QOB. If the horse HDOBs I lose 2.5 points, DOBs I lose .5 of a point. TOBs I gain 2.5 points and QOBs I gain 6.5 points
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan A rare day for me, 3 for 3 QOBs
Not tried doing those yet. I’ve been obsessed with dobs and more recently trobs ever since I started trading
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@John-Folan A rare day for me, 3 for 3 QOBs
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2/2 dobs and 0/1 trobs for one point profit.
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And a lovely evening of racing yesterday and I’ve made back any losses from Sunday. 2/2 dobs and 2/2 trobs.
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Scratch yesterday. Two potentials today