Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 we need to be aware when we have the fav rule included in our strategies and then set the entry bet time anything before the off it won't be accurate as we can't know what the fav is hours before the race without a time machine
my thinking is that software bets on 3rd fav by price at entry time in this case market open
wandering if is a way for software to bet on 3rd FAV by price at market open?
The problem is the market is nowhere near liquid at open time. You are going to get more accurate results at most 1-2 hours before the off.
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 we need to be aware when we have the fav rule included in our strategies and then set the entry bet time anything before the off it won't be accurate as we can't know what the fav is hours before the race without a time machine
my thinking is that software bets on 3rd fav by price at entry time in this case market open
wandering if is a way for software to bet on 3rd FAV by price at market open?
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@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan just put in a support ticket for a delorean each!
Might be worth a look at forecast price rank maybe?
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@john-folan just put in a support ticket for a delorean each!
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@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 we need to be aware when we have the fav rule included in our strategies and then set the entry bet time anything before the off it won't be accurate as we can't know what the fav is hours before the race without a time machine
Maybe we should ask Adam for one of those
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
The answer to that is that the "Market Open" price, if there is no other price filter applied, is the very first price the horse traded at in the market. Sometimes these prices can be ridiculous so that could explain the profit figure but again, I'd need to see the strategy to see if there are other factors.
Should it be renamed 'First Price Matched'? May lessen the confusion.
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@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 we need to be aware when we have the fav rule included in our strategies and then set the entry bet time anything before the off it won't be accurate as we can't know what the fav is hours before the race without a time machine
my thinking is that software bets on 3rd fav by price at entry time in this case market open
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
The answer to that is that the "Market Open" price, if there is no other price filter applied, is the very first price the horse traded at in the market. Sometimes these prices can be ridiculous so that could explain the profit figure but again, I'd need to see the strategy to see if there are other factors.
0_1652947270447_Fav3_back.json
this one gives 4.2K profit on £1 stakes at market open price
but if filtered by entry time it only shows 1 bet 1-2 hrs before race and 13k bets at market open
That's because that was your entry time, so assumedly the one bet matched was a horse that did not have a bet matched before 1-2 hours.
If you set the entry time to 10 mins before the off on the filter itself you still have 13,000 results.
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 we need to be aware when we have the fav rule included in our strategies and then set the entry bet time anything before the off it won't be accurate as we can't know what the fav is hours before the race without a time machine
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
The answer to that is that the "Market Open" price, if there is no other price filter applied, is the very first price the horse traded at in the market. Sometimes these prices can be ridiculous so that could explain the profit figure but again, I'd need to see the strategy to see if there are other factors.
0_1652947270447_Fav3_back.json
this one gives 4.2K profit on £1 stakes at market open price
but if filtered by entry time it only shows 1 bet 1-2 hrs before race and 13k bets at market open
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@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
The answer to that is that the "Market Open" price, if there is no other price filter applied, is the very first price the horse traded at in the market. Sometimes these prices can be ridiculous so that could explain the profit figure but again, I'd need to see the strategy to see if there are other factors.
0_1652947270447_Fav3_back.json
this one gives 4.2K profit on £1 stakes at market open price
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
The answer to that is that the "Market Open" price, if there is no other price filter applied, is the very first price the horse traded at in the market. Sometimes these prices can be ridiculous so that could explain the profit figure but again, I'd need to see the strategy to see if there are other factors.
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@terence said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Hi I wonder if you could help me with regards to what is a good MFE & MAE in the horse racing software, I've got a MFE 4.75% & MAE 0.48% with a very good SR & ROI, but not sure if this is any good and if not should it be higher and how would I go about increasing it?
If you click the "i" button next to the figure, there's quite a lengthy explanation of these in the software.
Those figures are kind of irrelevant for straight back and lag strategies. If you are using exits and stop losses, then very broadly speaking, the closer to 100% the better, but there are some trade-offs.
If your MFE is low, you might be able to shoot for more odds movement between your entry and exit, to avoid cutting your wins too short. This will increase your MFE rating. But the trade-off is that your strike rate will drop. So it's a choice between having bigger but more infrequent wins vs having smaller but more regular wins.
If your MAE is low, you might need to tighten your stop losses to reduce the size of your losses. The trade-off with that one is that you'll get stopped out more often. This will increase your MAE rating. So it's like a choice between having bigger individual losses, or having smaller but more regular losses.
You need to look at those figures in the context of the other figures such as overall profit, strike rate and max drawdown. You can then decide which approach fits your personal psychology. Some people get psyched out by longer losing streaks and more variance and are happy to have smaller but more predictable wins, even if they know in the long term they would earn more money with the other approach!
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@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I'm forward testing my strategies and I am finding that some horses that were not on my list are showing up in the results when I run the strategy the next day. I thinking it must be a change in the going of the track as it may have changed from when I downloaded the selections.
That's possible. The going is updated throughout the day so could change by the true start time of the race.
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@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Which strategy are we talking about, where can I see all the settings?
The general question seems to be how are prices calculated at market opening? Some systems showing very high profits but assumedly the market isn't formed at the market open time.
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@terence said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Hi I wonder if you could help me with regards to what is a good MFE & MAE in the horse racing software, I've got a MFE 4.75% & MAE 0.48% with a very good SR & ROI, but not sure if this is any good and if not should it be higher and how would I go about increasing it?
Not looked at those myself but good SR & ROI is all I really need
@John-Folan will know what they are
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@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
OK this is making me rethink everything now.....running every system but with earlier entry times to see if it makes a difference
Early results show that it makes a BIG difference in some cases!
if you back every 3rd fav at the market open it is showing 4200 profit, not sure how it calculates but i think its too good to be true
can you share the file so we can take a look?
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@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I'm forward testing my strategies and I am finding that some horses that were not on my list are showing up in the results when I run the strategy the next day. I thinking it must be a change in the going of the track as it may have changed from when I downloaded the selections.
When does everyone download their selections? I have been doing in the night before, but I guess I should do it in the morning.
what strategy is this for? can you share the file so we can take a look
