The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Keith Driscoll]

@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

just an idea, not to backfit is to create a strategy lets say using 2021 data and see how it performed in 2022

You can also do alternating months. You should never do all 20&21. Always use random years or months, and then see how the system works on all of them. Usually, if it fails that stage, I scrap it, then move on to research my next idea.

[John Folan]

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A general discussion.

Course Filters? What’s everyone’s view? I just stuck them on the shortinrunning strategy and my god the difference. Obviously to do with the style and shape of the course.

I’ve never been a fan before but thought I’d look seeing as everyone else is into them. I would like a strategy to be profitable without them first so there is less chance of a backfit.

Thoughts?

It's a fine line between back fitting and not mate but after hearing @Keith-Driscoll speak about certain strategies for certain courses I'm wondering if there are systems that only work at specific courses due to the track itself?
I've used them in my systems I've posted on here bit I will be forward testing for a bit before going live

Ties in nicely with what Keith said. I’m going to do some research. I think horses for courses is actually a thing tbh. It’s the same as the greyhounds.

[John Folan]

@keith-driscoll said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan If you understand 100% why something works at a specific track, then you can use a strategy with limited data that backs it up. For other strategies, using filter for courses can be hit-and-miss in some cases. Which is why it is worth doing a bit more research.

I would generally make a list of tracks that show a loss, and then look at them one-by-one. Usually, I would use 5 years of data. If they show 4 or 5 out of 5 years of loss, then I'd exclude it. Otherwise, I would keep it in the strategy. It does depend on how many races it is looking at though, 2-3 years data can be enough for some.

The software has enough data for AW tracks. Nearly enough for NH. It needs this season flat season to make course turf form meaningful. That all means you can use the course data for AW tracks, and extrapolate for NH. Ignore it for the turf till October.

Thanks that makes excellent sense. Kind of where I was wandering to with it. Adam does have about another 7-8 years of data he will be adding in. I’m going to do as you suggest though. I like a bit of research.

[A Former User]

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A general discussion.

Course Filters? What’s everyone’s view? I just stuck them on the shortinrunning strategy and my god the difference. Obviously to do with the style and shape of the course.

I’ve never been a fan before but thought I’d look seeing as everyone else is into them. I would like a strategy to be profitable without them first so there is less chance of a backfit.

Thoughts?

It's a fine line between back fitting and not mate but after hearing @Keith-Driscoll speak about certain strategies for certain courses I'm wondering if there are systems that only work at specific courses due to the track itself?
I've used them in my systems I've posted on here bit I will be forward testing for a bit before going live

just an idea, not to backfit is to create a strategy lets say using 2021 data and see how it performed in 2022

[Keith Driscoll]

@john-folan If you understand 100% why something works at a specific track, then you can use a strategy with limited data that backs it up. For other strategies, using filter for courses can be hit-and-miss in some cases. Which is why it is worth doing a bit more research.

I would generally make a list of tracks that show a loss, and then look at them one-by-one. Usually, I would use 5 years of data. If they show 4 or 5 out of 5 years of loss, then I'd exclude it. Otherwise, I would keep it in the strategy. It does depend on how many races it is looking at though, 2-3 years data can be enough for some.

The software has enough data for AW tracks. Nearly enough for NH. It needs this season flat season to make course turf form meaningful. That all means you can use the course data for AW tracks, and extrapolate for NH. Ignore it for the turf till October.

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A general discussion.

Course Filters? What’s everyone’s view? I just stuck them on the shortinrunning strategy and my god the difference. Obviously to do with the style and shape of the course.

I’ve never been a fan before but thought I’d look seeing as everyone else is into them. I would like a strategy to be profitable without them first so there is less chance of a backfit.

Thoughts?

It's a fine line between back fitting and not mate but after hearing @Keith-Driscoll speak about certain strategies for certain courses I'm wondering if there are systems that only work at specific courses due to the track itself?
I've used them in my systems I've posted on here bit I will be forward testing for a bit before going live

[John Folan]

A general discussion.

Course Filters? What’s everyone’s view? I just stuck them on the shortinrunning strategy and my god the difference. Obviously to do with the style and shape of the course.

I’ve never been a fan before but thought I’d look seeing as everyone else is into them. I would like a strategy to be profitable without them first so there is less chance of a backfit.

Thoughts?

[John Folan]

Massive list of potential short inrunnings. Nothing else. Lets see how we go.

Provider race_date_time course_name SelectionName Race Type Class DSLR
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Addie Boo Boo Turf 5 217
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Empress Sheba Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Ardom's Lady Turf 5 47
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Whistledown Turf 5 27
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Glasstrees Turf 5 168
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Dreams Of Thunder Turf 5 189
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 13:40 Nottingham Quel Kaima Turf 5 28
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:10 Nottingham Miss Calculation Turf 4 33
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:10 Nottingham Dora Penny Turf 4 47
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:30 Brighton Graignes Turf 4 62
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:30 Brighton Enough Already Turf 4 20
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:30 Brighton Zlatan Turf 4 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Gyenyame Turf 5 19
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Tralee Hills Turf 5 36
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Vis A Vis Turf 5 83
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Sarim Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Doublethetrouble Turf 5 29
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Wynford Turf 5 9
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 14:40 Nottingham Yagood Turf 5 25
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 15:40 Nottingham Atheby Turf 5 30
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:00 Brighton Mitigated Risk Turf 5 21
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:00 Brighton Leroy Leroy Turf 5 15
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:45 Nottingham Bond Boy Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:45 Nottingham Letter Of The Law Turf 5 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:45 Nottingham Chanson D'Amour Turf 5 43
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 16:45 Nottingham She's The Danger Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Keepthebestsideout Turf 5 235
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Mass Gathering Turf 5 37
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo King's View Turf 5 16
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Caesar's Comet Turf 5 35
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Royal Tribute Turf 5 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Hot Bell Turf 5 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Poet's Pride Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Drummond Warrior Turf 5 27
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Dutch Schaefer Turf 5 34
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:10 Sligo Eglish Turf 5 16
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:17 Huntingdon Grand Revival Hurdle 4 56
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:17 Huntingdon Fast Deal Hurdle 4 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:17 Huntingdon Right Turn Hurdle 4 52
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:17 Huntingdon Patient Dream Hurdle 4 28
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:17 Huntingdon Barenboim Hurdle 4 15
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:33 Hexham Dillarchie Hurdle 5 17
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 17:47 Huntingdon Little Jessture Hurdle 5 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:03 Hexham Got Trumped Chase 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:03 Hexham Blooriedotcom Chase 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:03 Hexham Follow Your Fire Chase 5 17
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:03 Hexham Deerfoot Chase 5 7
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:03 Hexham Follow Your Arrow Chase 5 31
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:25 Killarney Apple Of His Eye Turf 5 35
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:25 Killarney Supposedtobe Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:25 Killarney Sheer Chance Turf 5 230
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:40 Sligo Action Motion Turf 4 31
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:40 Sligo Gunners Dream Turf 4 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:40 Sligo Sally Golightly Turf 4 8
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:40 Sligo Prophets Voice Turf 4 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:40 Sligo Nawraq Turf 4 6
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:47 Huntingdon True Romance Hurdle 4 169
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:47 Huntingdon The Bees Knees Hurdle 4 26
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:47 Huntingdon Gloire D'athon Hurdle 4 30
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney El Valle Turf 5 34
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Helpmeout Turf 5 6
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Pink Fire Lilly Turf 5 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Vivaia Turf 5 10
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Inchiquin Star Turf 5 26
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Gabbys Girl Turf 5 31
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 18:55 Killarney Ten Coins Turf 5 34
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:03 Hexham Kildrum Chase 5 39
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:03 Hexham Richardson Chase 5 17
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Just For Yuse Turf 4 45
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Kodiac Prince Turf 4 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Miramis Turf 4 11
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo House Of Kings Turf 4 41
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Play By The Rules Turf 4 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Talbot Turf 4 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:10 Sligo Lucky Number Turf 4 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:17 Huntingdon Gouet Des Bruyeres Chase 5 44
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:17 Huntingdon Old Harry Rocks Chase 5 57
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:17 Huntingdon Getaman Chase 5 217
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:17 Huntingdon Zuckerberg Chase 5 29
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Cometh The Man Turf 5 16
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Everylittlestep Turf 5 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Born Invincible Turf 5 41
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Bright Glory Turf 5 22
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Tyrion's Dream Turf 5 15
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Stay Local Turf 5 26
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Dazzling Spirit Turf 5 6
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Chimeric Turf 5 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:25 Killarney Eastern Racer Turf 5 13
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:40 Sligo Aintree Gin Turf 5 200
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:40 Sligo Star Official Turf 5 277
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:40 Sligo Tall Story Turf 5 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:55 Killarney Abstract Turf 4 6
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:55 Killarney Away To Sea Turf 4 210
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:55 Killarney Derrinlaur Turf 4 24
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:55 Killarney Imperial Choice Turf 4 6
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 19:55 Killarney Well Funded Turf 4 312
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:10 Sligo Tullyhogue Fort Turf 5 14
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:10 Sligo Zaynudin Turf 5 213
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:30 Killarney Monas Melody Turf 5 152
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:30 Killarney Port Sunlight Turf 5 49
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:38 Hexham Thomas Cranmer Hurdle 5 17
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:38 Hexham Archive Hurdle 5 25
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:38 Hexham Ilaya Hurdle 5 38
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:38 Hexham Baraboy Hurdle 5 39
Short Inrunning 17/05/2022 20:38 Hexham My Macho Man Hurdle 5 17

[John Folan]

@svajunas-bernotas-0 said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hi @john-folan are you using BFBM for inrunning trades?

I use BFBM for anything I can automate and geeks toy for my manual trades so scalping and lay to backs

[A Former User]

Hi @john-folan are you using BFBM for inrunning trades?

[John Folan]

Ok Today's Showing. Good Luck if you follow any. Probably should stick to Slow Horses and Trobs if you aren't botting as there is a lot to handle otherwise.

Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9

Slow Horses. Dob any over 5.0 as close to the off as possible.

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 10.0 as close to the off as possible.

Short Inrunning. Place a lay bet at 3.1 for any horse between 3.1 to 100. Bet persistence to keep in play

[John Folan]

About break even yesterday. Would have been better but I missed a few winners on the short inrunning while I sorted the bot out. I am keeping score on everything I do so I can compare it to the software. It's matching quite nicely at the moment.

No Trobs Today

Slow Horses. Dob any over 5.0 as close to the off as possible.

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 10.0 as close to the off as possible.

Short Inrunning. Place a lay bet at 3.1 for any horse between 3.1 to 100. Bet persistence to keep in play

[John Folan]

Interesting day. Took a while to get the short inrunning bot firing, but seems to be working fine now, thta was a mistake by me as I altered a different bot to fit and left a favourite condition in. Small losses on the Slow Horses and Zero Paced, but nothing outside the ordinairy. Everything else doing ok.

[John Folan]

Just to make a point on the short inrunnings. It may look suicidal. BUT. Several will be knocked out by the initial odds filter and then a load more will not run in to the 3.1 for the trade to become active.

A much smaller percentage will go on to be actual trades. I do like to scare people though

[John Folan]

Today looks mental but a load will be knocked out on odds. I am now convinced that you will need a bot to manage your selections. I have a separate bank and different compounding levels for each strategy so things won't get out of control. I can then match the entry times to the horse software as well. This looks a lot to manage but with the right bot settings it really isn't. You have to look at this as your business and invest in the best tools you can afford to succeed. Once bfbotmanager get back to me on a variable I need, I will have fully automated the shortinrunning as well. Won't even need to import the selections. They will just need the bot turning on like the Short Odd Lays and Mr Driscoll's Favourite Backs.

Trobs. Trob any 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Cracking start to the month on these.

Slow Horses. Dob any over 5.0 as close to the off as possible.~

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 10.0 as close to the off as possible.

Short Inrunning. Place a lay bet at 3.1 for any horse between 3.1 to 100. Bet persistence to keep in play

[John Folan]

0 on Slow Horses.
-1 on Zero Paced Dobs(bot works tho)
+3 on Classic Trobs
+1 on Short odd Lays
Storming day on the favourite backs.

Short inrunning goes live tomorrow .

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@keith This is what I have so far. It's not exact as I don't want any horse involved that is already trading below 3.1 involved. So I stuck a BSP filter in. It won't be exact as we don't know the BSP but you get the point and it will only be a few out either way. I can get bfbot to do that filter so we should be good to go. Looks tidy tbh. Couple of race filters and no wins in the last 5 races and the jobs a good un. It is actually profitable with just the no wins in last 5 races on it's own.

and the settings file
0_1652450572970_Short Inrunning.json

This is fantastic John thanks mate I'll take a look when I'm back at my PC, I appreciate the work you've put in

[John Folan]

@keith This is what I have so far. It's not exact as I don't want any horse involved that is already trading below 3.1 involved. So I stuck a BSP filter in. It won't be exact as we don't know the BSP but you get the point and it will only be a few out either way. I can get bfbot to do that filter so we should be good to go. Looks tidy tbh. Couple of race filters and no wins in the last 5 races and the jobs a good un. It is actually profitable with just the no wins in last 5 races on it's own. As mentioned we are looking to lay horses that trade lower but don't win.

and the settings file
0_1652450572970_Short Inrunning.json

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@keith taking a look at this laying short inrunning lark now. Opened a can of worms. Got some ideas though

It’s profitable if you lay at 3.1. Below that not so much. Has to do with a resistance point at 3.0 I guess

A couple of sensible filters and it looks like a 200 point plus a year strategy. Just need to check a few things. As BT always used to say. It’s good to talk

Fantastic mate I'm glad it's profitable haven't had chance to look myself yet but will do later.

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@keith taking a look at this laying short inrunning lark now. Opened a can of worms. Got some ideas though

It’s profitable if you lay at 3.1. Below that not so much. Has to do with a resistance point at 3.0 I guess

A couple of sensible filters and it looks like a 200 point plus a year strategy. Just need to check a few things. As BT always used to say. It’s good to talk