Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

Lay under 1.5 on all of these:

Sabah not on Betfair. 8/9 on the rest

Richard Latimer

Todays still going:

Will lay under 1.5 on these:

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Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 on all of these:

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Richard Latimer

Such amazingly positive results on the over 1.5 that fit the logic of everything I've learned over the last year on the 2nd half goal (odds withstanding) that I'm going to concentrate on that tomorrow and see where it leads me. Will have more time to do other stuff, no missed trades etc....etc....

Will continue to track the SHG but no rush to update presently!

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

Going to be harder and harder to resist my over 1.5 soon. 11 wins, 1 loss today so far. 49 trades in all over 7 days.

92% s/r
Ave lay odds 5.45

Nice 1 I'm in a similar position with something I've put together in the last month, bit hesitant with the changeover to summer leagues but know what you mean

Richard Latimer

Also, nothing qualifying on 2nd half goal yet!

Richard Latimer

Going to be harder and harder to resist my over 1.5 soon. 11 wins, 1 loss today so far. 49 trades in all over 7 days.

92% s/r
Ave lay odds 5.45

Richard Latimer

On to today:

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Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

1/1 on the 2nd half goals and 5/5 on the over 1.5 I'm currently looking at but not trading yet.

Data for that is on my sheet by the way.

Richard Latimer

1/1 on the 2nd half goals and 6/6 on the over 1.5 I'm currently looking at but not trading yet.

Richard Latimer

Tonight:

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Richard Latimer

Realised with everything going on I've not posted an update in ages.

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Firstly Saprissa in Costa Rica - That league now fermented as far as I''m concerned.
Ger Regionalliga Bayern still on pause
Singapore still in there after I realised my loss there could eeasily have been avoided and should have been.

Grasshopers v Luzern a 2-0 special so wouldn't take going forward currently.
Peru is almost there
South Korea has a little way to go.
FC Juniors was on the outliers.
Nowhere near enough data in Ireland yet.
Hamburger a 2-0 so no good moving forward at present.
Jap J2 - Need more data.
Paraguay - Need more data.
Slovenia - Need much more data.
Villarreal a 2-0 loss - Not for the future at present.

There were a couple of other 2-0 losses in Italy and Austria which brought about my decision.

Richard Latimer

A bit today - No 2-0 Scorelines!!

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Dan MacKinnon

@richard-latimer yeah exactly. It's also easier to explain with hindsight, but ultimately the golden rule is always try and protect your bank. Sometimes it's better to pull yourself out of the firing line if it means you can regroup and go again with more confidence.

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

@richard-latimer I was also on the Villareal vs Valencia trade. With hindsight, you could say it was a risky trade as Villareal have European ambitions so weren't going to expend themselves. Valencia have nothing to play for in the league and have a Copa Del Rey final coming up so there mind might be on that. With the game 2-0 at HT maybe both teams saw the game was over so held back? Now that we know it finished 2-0 that's an easy explanation. However, watching the game it seemed quite open. Valencia had a goal disallowed, Villareal missed a sitter, Valencia tackled the goalkeeper late in the game but couldn't finish.

I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it was just a bad result.

Taking the other game I traded that night - Liverpool vs Man Utd - also 2-0 at HT, both teams knew that match was over, but Liverpool found opportunities and it finished 4-0.

That's good to know. I've not exactly given up on the 2-0 scoreline but for now I'm needing to play it safe and logic is against it. Had it not been for a a couple of others in the month it wouldn't be so bad. That said, in the longterm I'm aiming for set and forget over 1.5 and it would have been on that and a winner!

Dan MacKinnon

@richard-latimer I was also on the Villareal vs Valencia trade. With hindsight, you could say it was a risky trade as Villareal have European ambitions so weren't going to expend themselves. Valencia have nothing to play for in the league and have a Copa Del Rey final coming up so there mind might be on that. With the game 2-0 at HT maybe both teams saw the game was over so held back? Now that we know it finished 2-0 that's an easy explanation. However, watching the game it seemed quite open. Valencia had a goal disallowed, Villareal missed a sitter, Valencia tackled the goalkeeper late in the game but couldn't finish.

I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it was just a bad result.

Taking the other game I traded that night - Liverpool vs Man Utd - also 2-0 at HT, both teams knew that match was over, but Liverpool found opportunities and it finished 4-0.

Richard Latimer

Got day off today and tomorrow as doing childcare so time to update all my data. This month is going to be a loss for me in terms of where I'm at (first in 6 months) made a little heavier by the fact I'm having to take mistakes, and things like the realisation of the 2-0 thing becoming a concern, on the chin.

With the fact I'm trading to earn a full time PAYE salary with my cousin I need his money to rise even if my own isn't in the short term.

So my money goes down a littlle and hiis continues to show an upward curve. I'm confident it's temporary as happy with all other scorelines and 2-0 has been something that's not felt entirely right for a while now.

In the longterm I'm actually quite confident in the over 1.5 thing I've just started working on but too many times in the past I've raced to drop one thing and hit another. Those days are in the past!

Richard Latimer

Since 26 Feb on the really high scorelines 2 losses
On the 0-1 3 losses
On the 1-0 2 losses
On the 2-1 4 losses
On the 0-0 2 losses
On the 1-1 2 losses

It's defintely becoming a bit of an issue now. Currently at least!

Whole point of this which I almost left out is 6 losses @ 2-0

Richard Latimer

I'm trying to go back over all my lost trades since a couple months back to see which is the most prevalent scoreline.

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

@richard-latimer Do you think this is due to end of season syndrome in winter leagues with Summer Leagues only ust starting?

Not really. It's only one scoreline. Last seasons data is so much better as well.