The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Beaten Fav Lays (Only odds between and including 6.0-11.5)
What's your strategy for these?
laying Beaten favs last time out, shows a decent profit over the long term in back-testing, not that that guarantees profit in future of course but these look decent. obviously laying at high odds so not for the fainthearted.
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@dan-mackinnon they have been added to the next update so when that goes out they will be in
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@dan-mackinnon I've mentioned this to @Adam
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Iāve got a couple of things Iām testing. Again like Martin Iām investigating course filters which seem to be a pretty major thing. Iāll make them available as I finish them.
When you say course filters, are you going to the group breakdown and looking at individual courses?
Yes. Then you can add them as actual filters
I've just done that and my SR jumped from 10% to 25%! Not all the courses are in the dropdown menu though. Have you noticed that?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Iāve got a couple of things Iām testing. Again like Martin Iām investigating course filters which seem to be a pretty major thing. Iāll make them available as I finish them.
When you say course filters, are you going to the group breakdown and looking at individual courses?
Yes. Then you can add them as actual filters
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Beaten Fav Lays (Only odds between and including 6.0-11.5)
What's your strategy for these?
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan when do you usually enter your trades?
10 seconds before the off
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Iāve got a couple of things Iām testing. Again like Martin Iām investigating course filters which seem to be a pretty major thing. Iāll make them available as I finish them.
When you say course filters, are you going to the group breakdown and looking at individual courses?
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@john-folan With your trobs post it doesn't have any of todays races only the 18th
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@john-folan when do you usually enter your trades?
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Iāve got a couple of things Iām testing. Again like Martin Iām investigating course filters which seem to be a pretty major thing. Iāll make them available as I finish them.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@dan-mackinnon fair enough looking forward to getting involved when more places released
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Encouraging to see folk getting stuck in with the software
@John-Folan looks like the horse racing thread is no longer like your own solo blog mate
Definitely think there is something in LTF. I pissed about with it a while back at odds of 1.8 figuring that the strike rate might be higher albeit for lower gains. Difference was I was mainly placing the lays in play while watching the live feed. Essentially I was looking for horses that would bunch up in the latter portions of the race. Again, I found this seemed to happen more in competitive races but occasionally on ones with an obvious fav.
Not sure if this info is of any use as I am more of a pre race trader and was just messing about with min stakes on LTF in play.
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@chris-osborne they do, but when I did the back testing it was set between 11am to 9pm. I originally thought if short A/W races that are tight maybe this is ideal LTF races. But the back testing showed 1-5pm was the sweet spot. Straight away this software is proving worthwhile because it challenges what I would have gone with originally
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Today's Trobs subject to the usual 3.5-9 odds range.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@stuart-wallace when I hover over it says "class number of the race". When I look one of the courses the classes are 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5.
Yes definitely. A problem shared and all that
Here you go. Its a way of making sure horses with a very high handicap isn't put up against (allegedly) a horse with a much lower handicap. This table should help
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@dan-mackinnon in the same camp as you but donāt a lot of meetings take place in the evenings especially in the summer
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Here we go, as promised my first and probably awful strategy attempt for the horses. After a fair bit of tinkering around...
Lay The Field
What has to happen? At least 2 horses need to hit the pre-race lay bet that is queued at 1.5. If only 1 hits then lose 50% of stake, if 2 hit win 50%, if 3 hits 150%, etc. Therefore, it needs to be relatively competitive so no odds-on favourite. One horse can start strong and fade while another starts slow and finishes strong (not sure how to do this on the software). There needs to be a decent number of horses so minimum no. of runners is 6.How to minimise risk? Reduce odds from 1.5 to 1.4 to decrease liability and increase profit, however when back testing this proved less profitable. I also tested 1.6 and 1.7 thinking more horses might hit that, but again back testing said 1.5 is most profitable.
Taking all that into account I used the following rules:
Time of Day: 1-5pm used back testing and morning/ evenings are not profitable
Day of the week: Mon & Fri only Saturday is the next profitable day
Runners: 6-14
Race Type: A/W, Chase & Turf
Distance: 6f - 20f I think this can be adjusted but I was aiming for shorter races
Fav Price: Value 2-100The profit rating is 1 star but I have no idea how to get it any higher!
Profit from Ā£1 trades is Ā£77.52
ROI 10%
SR 17%
LWS 5
LLS 12
Biggest loss from Ā£1: -Ā£0.57
Max drawdown (Ā£1 stakes): Ā£5.21If anyone has any comments or can point out the blatant errors I've made then please let me know. If I found a football strategy that was 10% ROI I'd be over the moon!
If anyone knows how to get above 1 star can you also let me know
