The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Here we go, as promised my first and probably awful strategy attempt for the horses. After a fair bit of tinkering around...
Lay The Field
What has to happen? At least 2 horses need to hit the pre-race lay bet that is queued at 1.5. If only 1 hits then lose 50% of stake, if 2 hit win 50%, if 3 hits 150%, etc. Therefore, it needs to be relatively competitive so no odds-on favourite. One horse can start strong and fade while another starts slow and finishes strong (not sure how to do this on the software). There needs to be a decent number of horses so minimum no. of runners is 6.How to minimise risk? Reduce odds from 1.5 to 1.4 to decrease liability and increase profit, however when back testing this proved less profitable. I also tested 1.6 and 1.7 thinking more horses might hit that, but again back testing said 1.5 is most profitable.
Taking all that into account I used the following rules:
Time of Day: 1-5pm used back testing and morning/ evenings are not profitable
Day of the week: Mon & Fri only Saturday is the next profitable day
Runners: 6-14
Race Type: A/W, Chase & Turf
Distance: 6f - 20f I think this can be adjusted but I was aiming for shorter races
Fav Price: Value 2-100The profit rating is 1 star but I have no idea how to get it any higher!
Profit from £1 trades is £77.52
ROI 10%
SR 17%
LWS 5
LLS 12
Biggest loss from £1: -£0.57
Max drawdown (£1 stakes): £5.21If anyone has any comments or can point out the blatant errors I've made then please let me know. If I found a football strategy that was 10% ROI I'd be over the moon!
If anyone knows how to get above 1 star can you also let me know
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@stuart-wallace when I hover over it says "class number of the race". When I look one of the courses the classes are 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5.
Yes definitely. A problem shared and all that
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I'm sure this is going to be a stupid question, but what does "class" mean? From having a quick Google is Class 1 like the Premier League, 2 the Championship, etc.? How bad is Class 5 and 6 or is it not as simple as that? Is it more like a boxing night and they're the newcomers?
I'm the same mate. I was persona non grata for being in for the opening call of the software, but looking at Martins vlog, is there not an explanation of the columns if you hover over them? otherwise, maybe a glossary of what all the fields are might be useful.
Sounds like me and you are at the same level mate - obviously class Z
Hope to get in on next tranche of members allowed access and then we can talk horse bollox together. -
I'm sure this is going to be a stupid question, but what does "class" mean? From having a quick Google is Class 1 like the Premier League, 2 the Championship, etc.? How bad is Class 5 and 6 or is it not as simple as that? Is it more like a boxing night and they're the newcomers?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin it wasn't a strategy, it was just me putting in criteria to see how it compares with creating filters on the football software. So far looks really impressive!
I could spend hours and hours on the back testing alone, it's like game to me
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@martin it wasn't a strategy, it was just me putting in criteria to see how it compares with creating filters on the football software. So far looks really impressive!
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@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Martin Signed up!
great work just seen it's sold out already!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Just got in now, reminded me of when you've been expecting a death in the family for a while but it still comes as a shock when it happens
I've also given it a go. Just messed about with the strategy builder and it came back with a 1 star and -500% return. Seems about right for me and horse racing!
Time to start reading "Laying the Field" someone recommended on here a while back. It's currently free on Kindle Unlimited.
Try the reverse of that strategy! What stakes is that to?
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@Martin Signed up!
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@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Just got in now, reminded me of when you've been expecting a death in the family for a while but it still comes as a shock when it happens
I've also given it a go. Just messed about with the strategy builder and it came back with a 1 star and -500% return. Seems about right for me and horse racing!
Time to start reading "Laying the Field" someone recommended on here a while back. It's currently free on Kindle Unlimited.
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@john-folan Just got in now, reminded me of when you've been expecting a death in the family for a while but it still comes as a shock when it happens
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@bob said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan ah man has it already happened? I was waiting patiently for an email that didn’t arrive!
Keep your eyes peeled today!
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@john-folan ah man has it already happened? I was waiting patiently for an email that didn’t arrive!
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Who got in then?
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@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@chris-osborne, I'm assuming there was an email regarding the horse racing software? I didn't receive anything
I've not either
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@chris-osborne, I'm assuming there was an email regarding the horse racing software? I didn't receive anything
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@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith You might also want to keep your eye on the forum and your emails in the next hour or so
Looks like I've missed it
What makes you say that
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@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith You might also want to keep your eye on the forum and your emails in the next hour or so
Looks like I've missed it
