Fortune Favours the Bold
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Today’s SHG
- Stoke vs Bristol City
- Portsmouth vs Lincoln
- Accrington vs Burton
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2-1 now
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@keith I saw it got down to something like 4.2 again! I will be yeah as this is mostly a SHG filter which just so happened to also throw up a few o1.5 results as well.
This game also came up on a set and forget o1.5 and I'm going to track what happens if I queue at 4.0 and 5.0. For every loss I'll need 3 or 4 wins to get back to even (well slightly less if you include commission - and A League is the worst for commission!). I know it doesn't seem like much but if you're looking at averaging say 10% profit a month, losing 5% just to get on trades might be a problem over the long term. I'm hoping for quality over quantity.
Or the short answer to your question, yes.
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@dan-mackinnon 1-1 now are you still going for a SHG?
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@keith said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sydney vs Adelaide
Already a goal up!
I leave mine queued up at 4.0 so it was a bit too soon for me. These things happen and looking at my data I'll win as many as I lose if I went in higher or queued at 4. At least by queuing all of them I'm consistent with my liability.
Hopefully it stays like this until HT and I get them both in the second half!
- Sydney vs Adelaide
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sydney vs Adelaide
Already a goal up!
- Sydney vs Adelaide
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Today's O1.5/ SHG
- Sydney vs Adelaide
- Sydney vs Adelaide
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@dan-mackinnon good work!
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's SHG
- Pogon Szczecin vs Wilsa Plock (New league)
Tomorrow's SHG
- CCM vs Sydney
- Melbourne V vs Melbourne C
- Schalke vs Heidenheim
- Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg
- Nottingham F vs Birmingham
- Bristol City vs Peterborough
- Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge
Right, let's try and piece this together.
Friday was SHG and O1.5 so 2/2 +4pts
Saturday was just O1.5 and 6/7 but I had queued them at 4.0 and Melbourne got to 4.2 so missed that so +2ptsOverall +6pts
If I'm being completely honest, I had a go at the Grand National but in my drunken state used Betfair instead of a betting app so it's only +2pts. Luckily, in my hungover state I didn't trade yesterday and avoided a -4pt losing day.On Saturday I was out the whole day so was able to set & forget my trades. That reinforced the idea of how I want to trade long-term. I'm going to test a slightly amended filter as an o1.5 S&F to see how it compares.
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@dan-mackinnon he clearly had a proper mate in you - enjoy the day to the max in his honour
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@dan-mackinnon have a great day mate!!!
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Today's SHG
- Pogon Szczecin vs Wilsa Plock (New league)
Tomorrow's SHG
- CCM vs Sydney
- Melbourne V vs Melbourne C
- Schalke vs Heidenheim
- Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg
- Nottingham F vs Birmingham
- Bristol City vs Peterborough
- Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge
Tomorrow is my annual day to go and celebrate the life of my friend who sadly passed away when I was younger. The man was so full of fun and happiness I try to dedicate at least one day a year to filling it with that. It's always a good reminder of what is important.
I will however, start trading these as O1.5 as a set and forget. Although not as profitable as SHG it fits more into how I want to trade long term.Have a good weekend everyone!
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@dan-mackinnon great work that congrats!
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3/3 yesterday, leaves this weekend 9/9 +18pts. A bounce back from the -16 from the previous weekend.
All 9 would have been over 1.5 as well. I’ll have a look back and see if it’s profitable to O1.5 set and forget prematch.
Nothing today.
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@dan-mackinnon nice work!
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's SHG
- Toulouse vs Paris FC (new league added)
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
- Zurich vs Grasshoppers (another new league)
- Lazio vs Sassuolo
- Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
- Atl. Madrid vs Alaves
Full house 6/6 +12pts
Today’s SHG
- Heidenhem vs Nurnberg
- West Ham vs Everton
- Basel vs Young Boys
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New month, let's hope we can kick on. That red belt was so close!
Today's SHG
- Toulouse vs Paris FC (new league added)
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
- Zurich vs Grasshoppers (another new league)
- Lazio vs Sassuolo
- Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
- Atl. Madrid vs Alaves
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
End of Month Review - March
It's been a real rollercoaster and come away with a small loss. I think everyone suffered a bit this monthMarch in numbers
- 27 trades
- 20 winning trades (74% SR) - well beneath the 85% average
- 10 days trading, busiest day 9 trades
- LLR: 3 - a new record
Overall, a pretty rough month numbers wise, so I'm pleased to come away with just a 4pt loss.
As it's been a relatively quiet month, I've taken Martin's advice and done some deep dives into the research to see which leagues perform well and which ones are a liability. I admit that previously I had the "big league" bias and dismissed certain nations. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised with the results below and will amend my filter:
Top leagues
Iceland
Japan
Norway
Portugal
South Korea
Switzerland
TurkeyGood leagues
Czech Rep
England (possibly from League One up)
Finland
France (Ligue 1 & 2)
Germany (Bundesliga 1 & 2)
Rep. of Ireland
Italy (Serie A & B )
PeruOK/ Needs more data
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Egypt
Greece
N. Ireland
Poland
Russia
Scotland (SPL only)Needs more data
Australia
Belgium
Netherlands
SpainLeagues to Avoid
Austria
Belarus
Bolivia
Croatia
Denmark
SwedenI would be interested to know anyone's thoughts on the leagues
I've noticed a real trend in some leagues being avoidable for nearly all my strategies, when I've finished testing I will look to put a list together.
