Keep Blowing my bank and chasing losses

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Don't have the right mindset I have a good run few losses then I chase and bang nothing left I was trying to do over 1.5 goals tbh made me feel sick 250 in one night gone cause I can't control myself
Might not be alot to some of you but to me that's alot and needed funds but hey ho no doubt I'll deposit more on Friday and lose that aswell

Dan MacKinnon

@ben-long As it's been mentioned, I think everyone here has gone through the same struggle.

It's always good to take some time off to yourself for a couple of days to get the right mindset. As you've already said, just looking at it the following morning you have a new perspective. Think quality over quantity! Learning to trade is hard enough in itself so don't add more pressure by feeling you need to do something every day or straying from what you know is right.

Ryan

@ben-long Glad to hear it, always here if needed.

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@Ryan the response has been amazing everything taken on bored, it's a learning curve one that shall not be repeated, I have my paper trading set up and going through, I also went through last nights and would have made a small loss of £22 but hey, going start again Friday I'm dividing it into points as was suggested and until I'm happy with mine will be doing your guys filters onwards and upwards

Ryan

I am really sorry to hear this, these posts always hurt me when I see them.

There's been amazing responses of which I cannot actually add anything too!

Andrew Macdonald

Hi mate I know you've received loads of replies. To reiterate what Keith has said, discipline is the hardest part and I'm sure we all lose it from time to time. But thats what you need to focus on, discipline, self control. Losing days are part of the game, but blowing your bank days are a big issue.

My non sexy response is paper trade, immediately, for afew weeks, focus on the process. If you do trade limit yourself to 2/3 solid trades a day, with low stakes. Being realistic if you keep building it and blowing it, is it worth it?

There's so much advice on here, best for me was treat it like a business! That really helped me.

Its all a learning curve, fair play for speaking out and asking! Good luck mate

Akiva Anderson

I think we've all been there before, Ben. Probably several times too. Are you in a rush to make money? Discipline is the hardest thing to master, but it can be done. I am living proof of that and there are others here too who have conquered it.

I opened up a Betdaq account and used it for my riskier or impulsive trades. That worked well for me, it saved my main Betfair Bank and it was able to grow.

I used to find losing days difficult to deal with and would try and win back what I lost. I was switching strategies and trying to make the stats fit. That's when it becomes pure gambling. I was thinking in 'Possibilities' rather than 'Probabilities'.

Anyway, I wish you well.

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Currently Goig through all goal times
From 500 games my filter was 74% win rate
That's if backed t the start of games would be £65 profit
What I like to do was wait until odds 1.5 or 20mins played then back usually around odds 1.65 most games, sometimes goal comes to early but I would back hope for a goal in first half then take my liability out so no loss on under 1.5 but around £5 on over
If a goal came between 45 and 65 I would let it run (mistake 1)
If there was no goal between 45 and 70 I would back 0.5 for £5 usually at odd 2 or greater to cover half my liability on 1.5 (mistake 2)

So far I can see from goal times that I should be entering roughly 20mins
And getting out at around 60
That would only be a half stake loss at 60mins

I also should add something to do with first goal score on my filter and or a goal before 60mins % or average ?

Thanks for the replys
I'm going to do the 1 point staking that was suggested

After sleeping on it I've realised what I did
I was trading the BTC trade then because there was no selections for a day or two I switched to my filter

Onto Friday

Martin

@ben-long said in Keep Blowing my bank and chasing losses:

Don't have the right mindset I have a good run few losses then I chase and bang nothing left I was trying to do over 1.5 goals tbh made me feel sick 250 in one night gone cause I can't control myself
Might not be alot to some of you but to me that's alot and needed funds but hey ho no doubt I'll deposit more on Friday and lose that aswell

@Ben-Long so it sounds like you may have some addiction issues here, if so take a break from Betfair immediately.

If not then these articles will help, please follow the advice! https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-staking-strategy-how-much-do-you-need

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/content/chasing-your-losses-when-trading-betfair-heres-what-spiral-leads-and-how-tackle-it

Mark Maguire

@ben-long from my point of view I started with the idea - in my case it was 0ver 2,5 goals and it was based on an earlyish goal and getting out. I create the filter/s variations of what I though would lead to goals.. more focussed on attacking stats like Shots on Target than actual goals scored in previous games because I think the scoring of a goal is the accident/luck/law of nature bit which is random (just my view).

I then recorded goals times (first and second goal) and results for 1000 trades (between a couple of filters) and from that the data told me:

I had to trade from the start because a high % of goals were in first fifteen mins.
My exit point was 60 mins because the value didnt exist in terms of a first goal scored after that ( bearing in mind I enter at the start and drip stakes so the risk versus chance of another goal wasn't worth it) so I saw from that I could see 89% of games being green with a first goal before 60 mins. That gave me my exit point.

I then developed it to say :

1st drip automatic at kick off
2nd drip automatic at 15 mins
3rd drip dependent on in play stats being right (minimum 2 Shots on target etc) 35 mins
4th drip 45 mins dependent again on in play stats going correctly... I worked out the league averages for goals per Shot on Target for example and this gave me my in play stats targets.

So my rules became - no further staking after second or third drip don't meet criteria, and out regardless on 60 mins if no goal.

Its difficult to exit sometimes if in play stats look amazing but more and more I just get out and move on.

I guess the point is these rules were necessary for me to have the disciplines and I got them by analysis of my data. Others have a much less data focussed approach but I felt I need it to help me create those disciplines to help me conquer mindset.

Main thing is in my humble opinion - decide what you want to trade and why, whats your angle? test it and test it again and don't look for quick fixes by blindly following some of the brilliant guys on here .. I'm not saying dont trade their trades but if you just blindly follow a) you end up being upset when there is an inevitable bad run b) you feel alienated because they seem to have a magic formula and you don't and c) most importantly you're not doing what you should in building up an idea and strategy which gives you confidence to trade.

To give yourself confidence trade some profitable member filters because they have the rules written into the filter and see which fits with your mentality - data led or instinctive / football//sport specific knowledge or both ?

Its a process to get there but do start with the idea and learn learn learn. The guys on here are bloody great and will help I'm sure - I know I've droned on here but hope it helps.

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I started out nearly two years ago and have definitely blown a bank. My first suggestion is to have one strategy and stick to it. When I first started trading, I was using like ten filters and hadn't mastered one. I ended up losing over 1300 quid. What I did to stop the rot was to pick one filter and mastered that. I made sure I was profitable and understood what I was doing.

Then I added another. I notice you are a new member and I remember people saying about paper trading. It's up to you but maybe spend six months building some filters and tracking all of the data and then find where the value is in the filter.

I wish I had done this to start with. I was using the profitable members filters without doing any of my own work and I didn't know whether they worked or not I just blindly traded them.

Also a bankroll management strategy I have use is to split my bankroll into points. I divide my bankroll by 100 and then each trade is no more than one point. I use that for the whole month, then adjust my bankroll at the start of the next month. If I lost money my stake reduces, if I made money I increase my stakes.

I hope this helps. I am definitely no expert, but have spent a lot of time trying to improve, someone with more experience may give you some better advice, but that my view on it. I hope this helps.

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Thanks for the reply I do have a P&L so will check that in the morning, I was doing well with it started with 40 and built it up, it's almost like I forgot what I was doing at the start to build it up.
Does anyone have any good trades/filters/ what and when to cash green up ect

Mark Maguire

@ben-long Ben I feel your pain and pretty sure almost everyone has been through it and its sick making, for me one of the biggest challenges in this game is mindset.

For my part I addressed this a few months ago - and its where proper record taking helps. I made myself go back and do the P&L on the day I chased and analysed that if only I'd cashed out for a loss and moved on .. taken the loss according to my rules for that trade. Then despite it being an ugly loss the day as a whole would have been green. It's happened once since again I did the same and the message was the same.

I now celebrate good cash outs with small red almost more than I do easy greens and do believe that if you can try and get to the place where you enjoy making a good decision this in itself will become a good habit.

Again feel your pain and can only say embrace the challenge of looking the chasing demon in the face and saying f*ck you

May I also say its massive that you're prepared to come on here and say it ! kudos !!!