Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@karl-dennis-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
Hi,
Just an observation, one of the results profit iswrong
659304 31260427 Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 26/02/2022 15:00:00 Coleraine Ballymena 1.96 1 1
instead of profit saying 1 i think it should be 9.41
as game finished 1-1thanks I have edited this!
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@andrew-camp said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
Been away from the forum for a few days and this thread is now way too complicated for me to catch up with, with different people doing different things.
Is the strategy that is now uploaded onto the software in the 'Profitable Members' section now the definitive one?
all the videos etc are based on the one that has been shared if you are confused just follow that one. @Matt-Wood has edited the filter itself I believe which I have not done.
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@andrew-camp I dont think there is a 'definitive' version yet. The one uploaded is the base version that Martin used for his testing.
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Been away from the forum for a few days and this thread is now way too complicated for me to catch up with, with different people doing different things.
Is the strategy that is now uploaded onto the software in the 'Profitable Members' section now the definitive one?
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Hi,
Just an observation, one of the results profit iswrong
659304 31260427 Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 26/02/2022 15:00:00 Coleraine Ballymena 1.96 1 1
instead of profit saying 1 i think it should be 9.41
as game finished 1-1 -
Ok so as Martin so obviously pointed out I could have just uploaded my set up here. Being a little on the slow side of things it didn't occur to me at all
Hopefully I have done this correctly. Please remember I am still testing this. The settings I have here are from the first round of just over 1000 results.
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@martin said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@Matt-Wood why don't you just upload your filter here? solves the problem
Haha probably because it never occurred to me, being the slow brained buffoon I amIll do that in a sec
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@Matt-Wood why don't you just upload your filter here? solves the problem
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@stuart-wallace I completely understand what your saying but this section is all about set and forget strategies not trading out at HT.
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re having more than one version available on members filters , i think it would be a good idea. Having 2 versions is not going to be very confusing for most people on here, plus also it gives a potential option to trade when one provides no results (such as today).
Matt, do you have any on your list today? -
@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@lee-leadbetter Hi Lee, yes that was my thought as well. The fewer goals the better. When I got my first 1000 games though and I started testing different combinations 1.4 came out as the best for profit. Plus we want a market to think there is some chance of goals or else the odds will be so low its not worth placing the trade.
Good point, rule 101 for trading, going against the market.
Did you experiment with home conceded? -
@chris-osborne Yeah, i know i am in danger of treading into territory that i am trying to move away from, but , if the stats and IPS suggest that it is better for damage limitation to get out at HT, it at least gives another option.
I can see that for 75 per cent of the games it is going to be pure set and forget, but if you are able to monitor the other 25 per cent(say, on a saturday) , and it seems obvious from IPS that there is likely to be a 3rd goal, then at least it would give another variable for potential red reduction. Anyway, the data might at least give another angle to the decision making. -
@stuart-wallace it’s a set and forget not a trade exiting at half time will confuse people however if that’s your approach then fine.
Personally as with Keith’s I’ll place before they start and not do anything until I check my results when finished trading for the day
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@stuart-wallace This is the best thing you can do, take the filter make it your own and track the results. You will have a greater understanding of your trading since you will know exactly what you did and why you thought to do it.
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@matt-wood thanks Matt. I was going to take my own version today and start playing around with , and include 2 extra columns...1) HT score and 2) Time of first goal. Might not provide much, but will only know after analysing the data - might give a trading option of , say, bailing( i must be careful using that word now !
) out at HT if 2 goals already scored. -
@lee-leadbetter Hi Lee, yes that was my thought as well. The fewer goals the better. When I got my first 1000 games though and I started testing different combinations 1.4 came out as the best for profit. Plus we want a market to think there is some chance of goals or else the odds will be so low its not worth placing the trade.
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@miro Hi Miro. I have to say I have gotten so much from this community it feels right have put give something back. Hopefully it will help some bank building
The only danger I can see with adding multiple versions of the same filter is it could potentially lead to cluttering up the members filters. I am sure some of the more experienced people on here will improve my original idea and have another version, and another etc.
My set up is very similar to Martins;
I recently posted a current league list (I have since added Guatemala for tracking only as I have no data on that league). I do suspect though that people will adjust leagues as they start collecting their own data. It may even be possible to alter leagues as a season progresses, if you were so inclined. For exampl Turkey was brilliant from late Dec through to early Feb on my tests but since then it is awful. Be interesting to see if that pattern repeats next season.
Cheers Matt. I took the members import last week and have played around with league restrictions i have also taken all restriction out and called it no filter for my own tracking.
Can i ask why you changed you away goal conceded value to 1.4? Dont we want the goals to be low as possible?
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@matt-wood Think the confusion is that @martin removes anything in England that kicks off at 3pm on a Saturday
I also think having two versions of the same filter will be confusing
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@miro Hi Miro. I have to say I have gotten so much from this community it feels right to give something back. Hopefully it will help some bank building
The only danger I can see with adding multiple versions of the same filter is it could potentially lead to cluttering up the members filters. I am sure some of the more experienced people on here will improve my original idea and have another version, and another etc.
My set up is very similar to Martins;
I recently posted a current league list (I have since added Guatemala for tracking only as I have no data on that league). I do suspect though that people will adjust leagues as they start collecting their own data. It may even be possible to alter leagues as a season progresses, if you were so inclined. For exampl Turkey was brilliant from late Dec through to early Feb on my tests but since then it is awful. Be interesting to see if that pattern repeats next season.
