Fortune Favours the Bold
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@matt-wood correct, only SHG
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@dan-mackinnon Great write up Dan
I am in the same camp as you. I most certainly had 'big league bias' too. Martin's videos and work on the set and forget project has opened my mind and eyes to the possibilities that may exist in the 'lesser' leagues.
Is your league analysis for 2hg trades? I will have a look at my data and see how it compares.
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End of Month Review - March
It's been a real rollercoaster and come away with a small loss. I think everyone suffered a bit this monthMarch in numbers
- 27 trades
- 20 winning trades (74% SR) - well beneath the 85% average
- 10 days trading, busiest day 9 trades
- LLR: 3 - a new record
Overall, a pretty rough month numbers wise, so I'm pleased to come away with just a 4pt loss.
As it's been a relatively quiet month, I've taken Martin's advice and done some deep dives into the research to see which leagues perform well and which ones are a liability. I admit that previously I had the "big league" bias and dismissed certain nations. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised with the results below and will amend my filter:
Top leagues
Iceland
Japan
Norway
Portugal
South Korea
Switzerland
TurkeyGood leagues
Czech Rep
England (possibly from League One up)
Finland
France (Ligue 1 & 2)
Germany (Bundesliga 1 & 2)
Rep. of Ireland
Italy (Serie A & B )
PeruOK/ Needs more data
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Egypt
Greece
N. Ireland
Poland
Russia
Scotland (SPL only)Needs more data
Australia
Belgium
Netherlands
SpainLeagues to Avoid
Austria
Belarus
Bolivia
Croatia
Denmark
SwedenI would be interested to know anyone's thoughts on the leagues
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Colchester vs Forest Green let me down. -6pts.
Overall this past weekend I’m down -16pts. I suspected there would be a downturn as February would have been +50. For the month I’m -2pts so could be worse
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@dan-mackinnon the weekend was rubbish for a lot of us
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Not sure how much I'll be around this weekend so thought I'd post them all up now
Today's SHG
- Sassuolo vs Spezia
Saturday's SHG
- Schalke vs Hannover
- Fleetwood vs Doncaster
- Portsmouth vs Wycombe
- Guimaraes vs Sporting
Sunday's SHG
- Ajax vs Feyenoord
- Leicester vs Brentford
- RB Leipzig vs Frankfurt
- PSV vs Sittard
- Tottenham vs West Ham
I'll start with the obvious, I've felt better!
Overall, Saturday was a terrible day and like I said I skilfully avoided the winners and managed to only find losing trades.
Friday 1/1
Saturday 2/4
Sunday 4/5Weekend - 7/10
Actual - 1/3 -10pts
Not great but still in profit for the month despite some awful days.Today's SHG
- Colchester vs Forest Green
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@dan-mackinnon chuffed for you lot
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Forget trading today, I’m off to the pub! Have a good day everyone
WE’VE GOT SUPER PAT VIEIRA!!!
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@martin said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon the most un-talked about success story of the season, I was very sceptical at his appointment too!
Me too thought he'd be gone by Christmas his track record is shocking but credit where credit's due
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@dan-mackinnon I was curious to see how he did. Good prospects in your squad, goalscorers. Best of luck
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@martin I wasn’t expecting much from him, but compared with the others we were linked with (one of them will be managing Everton today) he seems the right guy. I’m sure Vieira was an influence when we signed players this summer and Olise said he was the reason he wanted to come to Palace.
I doubt I’ll do any trading today as I’ll be too excited/ nervous/ happy/ sad / all of the above!
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@dan-mackinnon the most un-talked about success story of the season, I was very sceptical at his appointment too!
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Yesterday was a terrible day. I missed all the winners and just caught the losers.
But all that will be forgiven if Palace end up going to Wembley!
We’ve got super Pat Vieira!
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Not sure how much I'll be around this weekend so thought I'd post them all up now
Today's SHG
- Sassuolo vs Spezia
Saturday's SHG
- Schalke vs Hannover
- Fleetwood vs Doncaster
- Portsmouth vs Wycombe
- Guimaraes vs Sporting
Sunday's SHG
- Ajax vs Feyenoord
- Leicester vs Brentford
- RB Leipzig vs Frankfurt
- PSV vs Sittard
- Tottenham vs West Ham
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@frances-white I think that goes with the 3rd point as well. Everyone jumps around from strategy to strategy early on because we don’t fully know the technical side of it. When you’re trying to get your head around an unders trade for example, you’re looking at entry/ exit points, how the market reacts to goals or shots on target, etc. You’re not thinking about longest losing runs or variance of SR over 500 games or what leagues are good vs bad.
But that’s true in any example in life. Fortunately we don’t all have to stay working at the same job we started straight from school! But once you find something that you enjoy and works for you, and take into account the more technical aspects, it’s important to back yourself and stick with it.
I’m trying to walk the walk myself, I jumped around for a year and finally settled on SHG and although it’s rough at times it’s nice to have a dedicated focus.
Sorry for the rambling reply!
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The first point where I'm trying to move on from. Strategy overload. Spreadsheets with dozens of tabs.
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No picks today, but I did want to share some insights from “The Mental Game of Trading” as recommended by Lee.
- Early on we jump around from strategy to strategy without any real success. Then we blame ourselves for not being successful and look at the professionals and wonder how do they do it? But we never acknowledge that whatever you do in life if you jump from one to another you’ll never become a professional at anything. If you wanted to be good at art it’s like doing some pencil sketches, then giving up and trying to do some oil painting, then giving up and trying to do pottery sculptures. It’s all art, but without a dedicated focus you could never call yourself a “professional”
- Once you have found a successful strategy you need to combat self doubt with facts. Take whatever doubt/ fear you have and find evidence this is false. For example, “I can’t handle big losses, therefore I’m not cut out to be a trader”. That could be challenged with “I have thoroughly tested my strategy and know I have a big enough edge that I can handle losses that occur from time to time, sometimes these will be big, but my strategy allows for that”
- Early on trading is 90% technical, 10% mental. You need to test and find answers to your strategy. What happens when…? How does the market react…? It’s a lot of research. Further down your career that % will reverse. You no longer think, what happens now, instead you think, I have confidence in my strategy because I have the technical know-how to back it up.
- Don’t put too much pressure on yourself day to day. No other job pays you based on your performance or fines you for making mistakes as immediately as trading does. Try to detach and focus on your data and strategy rather than reacting in the moment.
Hopefully some of you find the above of interest. If so I would recommend the book. If I come across any more interesting bits I’ll post them here
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's SHG
- Swindon vs Sutton
- Bournemouth vs Reading
Tomorrow SHG
- Adelaide vs WSW
3/3 +6pts
The good thing about the A-League is you get your day wrapped up early.
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Today's SHG
- Swindon vs Sutton
- Bournemouth vs Reading
Tomorrow SHG
- Adelaide vs WSW
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A weekend review
Saturday - I was at home all day for a change so was able to watch what was going on. I made a couple of observations, and although nothing is changing right now, I'll keep a note of it in future.
- I queued Bayern at 5.0, but at HT the next goal market was 9.2! I checked back around 60m and it was still over 6 so I cancelled the trade. I thought on that basis, the time it hit 5.0 it would only be 20mins or so left to play. Not much value there. Good thing I did as there was no SHG.
- Bolton had a lot of opportunities but just couldn't get that goal. I'm not overly disappointed because I felt it was a reasonable trade and worth the risk. -6pts
- I've never had more than 2 consecutive losers in a row but was facing a 3rd with the Zurich game. I noticed my head was all over the shop and went through quite the emotional rollercoaster doubting myself and my ability. I took a break and continued reading Lee's recommended book "The Mental Game of Trading" and the chapter covered exactly what I was going through. I'll make sure to write up some notes later this week. I returned to a 89th min goal. +2pts
- I noticed with both German games there was a lot of chances and quite open but no goals around 20 minutes. I saw the goal market was around 7.2+ but the next, next goal was c.2.5. I thought I would experiment with a low risk o1.5 at 0-0 and remove liability if a goal was scored. The game was very open and finished with a win +2pts
Overall 2/4 winners, -2pts for the day excl. the o1.5 in the Bremen game
Sunday
The busiest day yet. I thought I'd use SofaScore for a change.- Adelaide vs Newcastle +2pts
- PSG same as Bayern, unrealistic odds so didn't get matched
- Bayer L vs Koln +2pts
- Basel vs Servette - There was an early red card and I would often not get involved, however looking on SS, Basel were the favourites but Servette had all the chances. Servette had a player sent off. I decided to go with it as I expected Basel to get the goal and previous games suggested they would +2pts
By this stage I was quite busy with my day and happy to call it. However, this was my thought process for the remaining
- Looking on SS it suggested that 4/5 Ars vs Lei games ended u2.5 however Arsenal started strong so I was tempted.
- Dortmund had high odds so little value unless a goal was virtually guaranteed. Looking at previous games it seemed there might be a SHG, but odds never came down to make it worthwhile. I'm noticing a theme with next goal market in Bundesliga
- Atalanta vs Genoa - Quiet first half, looking on SS these 2 often end in a draw. Atalanta had played in the Europa League on Thursday and although Genoa are in the relegation zone they have been grinding out 0-0s. SHG were around 5.3 at HT and by the time it would have hit 4.0 I don't think there was much value left.
Didn't really follow Porto or AZ as I was busy, but saw they both won.
Sunday +6pts
