Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread

[Matt Wood]

@liam-willis said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

hi matt ive just looked through this, its very interesting, one question ive noticed its a lot of obscure leagues, i know you are paper trading but have you noticed any liquidity problems or games being suspended?

Its set and forget pre KO. I asked Martin about this and he has found in his experience that even on the obscure leagues money gets matched, within reason obviously. I have had a little look and there is money on those leagues.

Also there is no trading out of a position so no fear of getting 'stuck' in a trade due to liquidity issues.

My own thoughts were that, after match odds, this is the most liquid market and so should be ok.

[liam willis]

hi matt ive just looked through this, its very interesting, one question ive noticed its a lot of obscure leagues, i know you are paper trading but have you noticed any liquidity problems or games being suspended?

[Matt Wood]

@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

I notice that the last 5 in the Spreadsheet had 5 incomplete results from today (13th) were all winners, so this would have taken the total profit to over 700 pounds.
Very impressive.
How much effort does it take to place the bets ? and is it best to Automate this daily?

Its still all paper trading at the moment, no actual trades placed yet.

[Matt Wood]

@paul-benstead-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.

I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.

Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6

Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.

This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.

P/L after comm, 74.88pts.

@matt-wood, You have min odds set at 1.6, but have you considered setting a max odds?

Not yet, that may be something to look at later, although some of the large odds games that you think 'no way' when downloading are winners.

[Stuart Wallace]

I notice that the last 5 in the Spreadsheet had 5 incomplete results from today (13th) were all winners, so this would have taken the total profit to over 700 pounds.
Very impressive.
How much effort does it take to place the bets ? and is it best to Automate this daily?

[A Former User]

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.

I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.

Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6

Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.

This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.

P/L after comm, 74.88pts.

@matt-wood, You have min odds set at 1.6, but have you considered setting a max odds?

[Martin]

@matt-wood variance has reduced massively since I removed the poor performing leagues, so far anyway

[Matt Wood]

@david-pickett said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@david-pickett

I think, as Martin has mentioned, the variance on this is enormous. For example your Turkey stats are shocking, yet mine are 38.50 to the good. But looking at my results the Turkish league recently had a run of 8 losers in a row.

I think I will keep all leagues in for testing for another 500 games, and then compare the two sets of results. If I was using real money, I'm not sure I would have made it past the first ten days.

Haha yea probably not for the feint hearted this one

[David Pickett]

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@david-pickett

I think, as Martin has mentioned, the variance on this is enormous. For example your Turkey stats are shocking, yet mine are 38.50 to the good. But looking at my results the Turkish league recently had a run of 8 losers in a row.

I think I will keep all leagues in for testing for another 500 games, and then compare the two sets of results. If I was using real money, I'm not sure I would have made it past the first ten days.

[Matt Wood]

@david-pickett

I think, as Martin has mentioned, the variance on this is enormous. For example your Turkey stats are shocking, yet mine are 38.50 to the good. But looking at my results the Turkish league recently had a run of 8 losers in a row.

[Matt Wood]

@david-pickett said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@matt-wood
I think so, I tend to change the odds filter, but I can't remember if I did with this one. Odds over 1.5, does that sound right?

Cheers for this strategy, I'm absolutely gobsmacked by it.

Yes Martin's limit was/is 1.5. I have tried altering things a little on my test.

Your welcome, was a total fluke really so not sure how much credit there is Doesn't matter if we all get some green trades out of it though

[David Pickett]

@matt-wood
I think so, I tend to change the odds filter, but I can't remember if I did with this one. Odds over 1.5, does that sound right?

Cheers for this strategy, I'm absolutely gobsmacked by it.

[Matt Wood]

@david-pickett Excellent stuff David

Did you run your tests without changing anything from the download (exactly as Martin is running his)?

[David Pickett]

There has been a lot of great work on this strategy, thanks, everyone. I've been running my own tests. I'm not sure if this is useful or confusing by adding more figures, but here are the results from my first 500 bets.

By excluding the leagues which have played a minimum of ten games and are showing a negative return the profits increase from £381.50 to £633.30. The excluded leagues are:

Note that I forgot to take off the 2% commission, so the profits are slightly less.

Here are the daily figures.

Blue is daily, brown is rolling.

It took ten days to show a profit.

[A Former User]

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@paul-benstead-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.

I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.

Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6

Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.

This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.

P/L after comm, 74.88pts.

@matt-wood, Why just those 3 leagues? I see others with a loss of 2pts or more in your list.

Afternoon Paul. Are you referring to the table I posted a little while back? If so that was a bit before the 1000 game mark so those leagues will have recovered a bit to make me keep them in.

This is still all in testing though so I am sure things may change again

Yes I was, and thanks for doing this.

[Matt Wood]

@paul-benstead-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.

I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.

Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6

Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.

This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.

P/L after comm, 74.88pts.

@matt-wood, Why just those 3 leagues? I see others with a loss of 2pts or more in your list.

Afternoon Paul. Are you referring to the table I posted a little while back? If so that was a bit before the 1000 game mark so those leagues will have recovered a bit to make me keep them in.

This is still all in testing though so I am sure things may change again

[A Former User]

@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:

Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.

I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.

Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6

Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.

This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.

P/L after comm, 74.88pts.

@matt-wood, Why just those 3 leagues? I see others with a loss of 2pts or more in your list.

[Martin]

@paul-benstead-0 yes

[Matt Wood]

@kevin-pepper Thanks for your help Kevin.

Certainly something I will be factoring in going forward

[Kevin Pepper]

@matt-wood it could be but anyway it's worth factoring in yield when you're looking at the possible p/l.
Good luck!