Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@kevin-pepper Is it maybe due to using average odds?
Yea 100+ on a bad weekend would be a huge hit on the bank!
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I tried to work back from your points profit and strike rate to get an idea of the number of bets you'd have.
If you had 435 filtered selections and you said the strike rate was 59.39% and average odds of 1.86 I'd expect the P/L to be 40+ pts after commission? Yield is around 9%
With 100+ selections in 2 days you'll need to have quite a bank and a bad weekend would give it a real hit! -
@kevin-pepper Thanks, this is the sort of stuff I need to look into a bit more
If I am understanding you correctly the filtered example you give is from 435 selections and the non filtered is from just over 1000.
The issue I think, as you said, is one of manageability. Some weekends were giving well over 100 selections across the two days.
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@matt-wood
Hi Matt
This has been inferred elsewhere but I'd always consider the Return on Income/Yield when looking at different sets of stats or filters applied.
From the results you gave, I'd estimate the filtered set had around 200 selections with the profit of 20.06 pts so that's a yield of 10%
The non-filter set I'd guess had c.750 selections returning +67.51 pts with a yield of 9%.
So there's not much difference in yield and it would seem logical to go without the filter provided the number of bets per day/week is manageable (i'm not sure what period you have been testing over).
Hopefully that makes some sense & helps
Cheers
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@paul-benstead-0 I believe that is correct for the way Martin has his test set up.
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@martin said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@frances-white these are the leagues I have cut out totally
Turkey 3rd Div or Lower
Spain
Bulgaria
Malta
England 6th Div or Lower
Iran
El Salvador
England 3pm Sat KO
Australia
India
Slovenia
Costa Rica
Mexico
Hungary
Northern Ireland
Azerbaijan
Denmark@martin, are you saying you have every league except these?
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This post is deleted!
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Ok so I have finished messing about with my data.
I 'think' (I'm still learning here) that I have found a good path forward.
Ok so;
limiting Home conceded ave. (line 2 of filter) to a max of 1.00.
Limiting Away conceded ave. (line 4 of filter) to a max of 0.6.
Minimum odds of 1.6Also removing any leagues that have made a loss of 2pts or more from my list Australia, Romania and Slovenia.
This leaves 272 winners from 435 games, 62.53% with ave odds of 1.89.
P/L after comm, 74.88pts.
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@matt-wood that's why I think odds limits are so crucial, there is a reason I add them in. what you should do is record all of the figures after 1000 games then compare the next 1000, does that odds limit still do better than no odds limit? if so you have found a clear trend that has happened both time, very unlikely to be variance or a coincidence at that point.
always, always, always take profit over strike rate!
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@chris-osborne I think I was coming to a similar line of thought myself. Thanks for the response Chris, hope you are enjoying a week away from work
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@matt-wood We have the same experience but for me profit would always win out but I guess if you have low strike rate but higher profits your going to have longer losing runs
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A beginners question for the more experienced heads on here.
I am still fairly new to proper and in depth statistical analysis, so should the end number to increase be strike rate or Profit (assuming odds have been tracked to calculate this)?
I am guessing it should be profit, as that is why we are all here in the end, and not just creating a high strike rate with an odds edge.
I ask this as I am looking at my Unders data now and fiddling with the filter settings I have gotten a S/R of 59.39% whilst achieving an average odds recorded of 1.86. This brings a P/L of 20.06pts (after comm).
Now changing tack and chasing the P/L, ignoring the filter settings and selecting min odds of 1.65. S/R of 56.34%, ave odds of 1.94. This is obviously much lower but the P/L comes out at 67.51pts.
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@martin said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@martin It is and I am pleased with it, have to keep reminding myself I only started it at the start of the year so 20pts without refinement is very nice indeed
It's 50pts up in under a month for me, this week was 26pts up! Insane
Its crazy! So good I keep waiting for it to come crashing down
Will update all mine in my lunch break today and see how it did, got a feeling it was decent though. -
@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@martin It is and I am pleased with it, have to keep reminding myself I only started it at the start of the year so 20pts without refinement is very nice indeed
It's 50pts up in under a month for me, this week was 26pts up! Insane
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@martin I have a huge amount of variance but I think ,like you, once I start to remove the crap this should come under control a bit.
Without todays results im about 20 pts up, not as good as yours.
I had a look through your version this morning, seems a lot of the big wins come from 'lesser' leagues
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