BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@nathan-bennett yes mate, its a really intriguing competition.
Firstly, to explain my approach to any antepost trading, I like to look at events where there is a group stage so you aren't likely to be knocked out early, as I plan to exit before the knockout stages.
I have mapped the fixtures to see which teams are likely to lead early etc but overall its only really between a few teams.
Australia are clear favourites for good reason. They're a class above the rest and super consistent with it. The only games they've lost recently have been dead rubbers when they've experimented. Yes NZ beat them in a warm up match but that's the first NZ win in the last 13 H2Hs. Australia open against England, another pre event knockout stage fav, but who remembers the recent womens Ashes tour? I think Aus are certain finalists/likely winners.
NZ are hosts, they have a kind opener against WI which they should win comfortably. They then play Bangladesh before India. That should be 3 wins in a row before they meey Australia. I'd say NZ are another certainty for semi finals.
Now India are rapidly improving, however they're incredibly inconsistent. They beat the Ozzies/NZ/England in dead rubbers, but equally have been utterly humiliated in competitive matches... therefore their price seems way too short. I predict a battle for the final semi final spot between them and the hugely overpriced South Africa...
South Africa have a couple of likely wins before they meet the big guns. They have a poor record v Aus and England but a recent series win over NZ and India will give them great hopes of reaching the semis.
Interestingly SA play India in the final group game... could be a tasty one.
That only leaves England! Big price for me although somewhat inconsistent lately. Very tough opener against the Ozzies but after that match they should win plenty of matches to qualify. I have them as my second favourites which makes the market position of 4th favs most curious...
Therefore the 2 teams i think are priced incorrectly are England and SA... both of which I expect to make solid runs for the playoffs and therefore both will drop in price over the group stage.
Hopefully then I can create enough green to enjoy the playoffs.
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@matt-ayles who's your eye on snatch any good odds
yet to investigate these -
Could be all she wrote trading wise
Been solid enough
Not perfect
If gets to 1.4 reckon square 90% all of remaining and go for a walk and pray my world champs hang on ha -
Oh great, now Blundell is caught, what are these idiots doing
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WTF de Grandhomme…..
Lucky not to be on his way
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Same back in again
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Cause I’m sick going again
1.2 LAY
1.4 BACK 75% of that lay -
Huge pole that spew
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@tom-david-1 oath bring it
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@nathan-bennett pulling an all nighter for it, could see heavy odds on draw lay
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Still 45 to lunch last 15mins to lunch if no wickets
Draw come well in -
Laying SA, should fly out, baring a collapse which looks unlikely just now
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Half an hour without a wicket could see it come in loads more. Staying out for the moment and protecting my green.
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Minor hint some rain could be nothing but that’s not till 2pm ish
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Am i missing something here?
Match NZ v SA is a odds-on win for SA ?
Yet draw has come in to 6.
Its easy money, right ?
Weather has been set to ok. no rain.
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@tom-david-1 it is a little quiet. Looking forward to the Womens World Cup but I've entered on the outright market as most of the matches will be at unsuitable times for me.
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Shame this mornings ODI didn't provide any entry for me
Quiet couple of days, looking forward to the IND v SL test starting on Friday and the PAK v AUS same day
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Have placed a sizeable Lay to Back on AFG, expecting a wicket or two for price to drift. Liability small, as expected.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Bangladesh fall to 192 all out, their lowest competitive ODI score since their tour of NZ a year ago.
Afghanistan haven't failed to hit that target either batting first or chasing since their game against SA in the 2019 world cup...
In this series Afghanistan have lost early wickets in both matches before recovering.
Makes me feel like their price at 1.45 might drift a touch, but then become very backable. I'm going to exercise caution, wait 5 overs or so and see. If there are no wickets I'll have missed this price so probably won't enter. If there is an early wicket and they drift to 1.66+ I'll back them as i think they'll chase this.
8 overs in, Afghanistan pacing themselves beautifully. No wickets, price into 1.12 so I'm going to leave this one.
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Bangladesh fall to 192 all out, their lowest competitive ODI score since their tour of NZ a year ago.
Afghanistan haven't failed to hit that target either batting first or chasing since their game against SA in the 2019 world cup...
In this series Afghanistan have lost early wickets in both matches before recovering.
Makes me feel like their price at 1.45 might drift a touch, but then become very backable. I'm going to exercise caution, wait 5 overs or so and see. If there are no wickets I'll have missed this price so probably won't enter. If there is an early wicket and they drift to 1.66+ I'll back them as i think they'll chase this.
