Which Way Next??
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Hi All,
So, I've put together a basic filter and been tracking the results for a few months so far. My starting point was a Lay U1.5 Goals set & forget strategy, which seems to be popular
After looking at the data and reading some recent forum posts it seemed worth looking at how FHG and SHG would perform.
I've not been tracking odds for all matches yet, but based on the odds I've seen and the max lay odds/min back odds I would trade I worked out the approx points.
FHG & SHG seem to be performing better than 1.5 goals and whilst they are all seem profitable I'm conscious of not overtrading and placing multiple trades on the same match.
My questions are:
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How do these strike rates compare to what others are achieving. I looked at Ryan's Split Stake selections and if I traded these as a S&F the strike rate is better than my current filter (86.49%) with less selections but a similar return on points.
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Whilst I keep tracking, is it worth looking at teaks to the filter to improve strike rates? If so, do I bite the bullet and focus on trying to improve one strategy (although keep tracking all three for comparision).
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Is 263 matches worth of data (from Nov-21) enough to even think about trading with micro stakes, or should I continue to collate data?
Any comments or thoughts are greatly appreciated.
Thanks
P
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@paul-foster your work on this is really good. Superb strike rates on all three markets, especially the FHG. Hopefully your stats will withstand variance and remain more or less the same at 500/750 tested matches. You’ll have something nice and solid to really work with then.
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@paul-foster amazing well done!
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@martin March has been great so far with 59 trades & 49 wins, so 83.1% S/R
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@paul-foster you could always edit filter, give it a diff name then click 'save new' after adding more leagues in, then split test the two filters - which performs best?
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@paul-foster how has it been going past 8 days?
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I've looked at the countries and leagues for my first 500 trades.
I'm not looking to take out any leagues at the moment, just keep collating the data. What I am wondering is if there are any leagues that I should have included. I took the decision based on forum posts to restrict to main countries and leagues but based on @Martin testing of S&F strategies I'm thinking that I may have restricted the potential results across more leagues too early.
P
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So I am now at just under 500 matches
Overall strike rates still look OK, but there has been a noticeable change over the past 2-weeks. I know a few others have mentioned some of their filters been hit with variance, so I am putting it down to this.
Just need to continue to paper trade to see if it is variance or if the wheels have fallen off my filter. When I look at strike rates in 100 match batches, the trend is that they decline.
U1.5 is interesting, as although this is currently showing a loss, when I apply Ryan's split stake to my selections I would be £100 in profit.
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This weekends experiment was to look at entry odds for FHG selections.
I set up three Bots with mirco stakes to enter the market at SP, 1.4 and 1.5.
Obviously this is a small sample, so further data required to make a firm decision on the best entry point. That said, I'm thinking of sampling higher odds, maybe even up to 2.0.
P
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@martin not at the minute, as I'm just collecting odds data with micro stakes (10p).
My current thoughts are to set at 1.4 and have the bet placed at the start and keep open to see if matched.
I think this will be the next stage of my data collation to see if the trades that don't get matched have an impact on the SR.
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@paul-foster do you have an odds limit? as in what price would you not back at
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@martin I found a strike rate/odds calculator online and that gave me a min back odds of 1.21 to break even.
I looked at a selection of matches before I started recording starting odds and the average for those came at 1.4, so used that as my premise for working out projected points.
P
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@paul-foster so at odds of 1.4 your points estimates would actually be pretty spot on! how did you work those out?
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@martin I think is looking good.
Total matches on filter for Sat and Sun were 42.
31 winning trades, 11 losses, so 73.81% SROverall 323 matches
252 winning trades, 71 losses, so 78.02% SRAlso started tracking odds since Monday, current average is 1.42, but that's only across 15 matches.
P
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@paul-foster how did the FHG goal go over the weekend?
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@paul-foster Wow this is amazing
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@paul-foster fascinating stuff
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Here are my SHG strike rates across all HT scorelines following the weekends selections.
Next thin is to collate odds data for the next 200ish matches, taking me up to 500 matches before I start making any tweaks, but certainly looking to drop 0-0 as a minimum, unless the SR increases between now and then.
I'm going to use BF Bot to place trades for 1p lay stakes and 10p back stakes to collate actual starting odds.
P
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@ian-wylie Thanks for sharing this. Really interesting to see how they compare and it's given me some more things to consider
I get your point about SHG strike rates. I'd started looking at my SHG strike rates based on certain FHG goals, based on Ryan's feedback.
0-0 @ HT is currently tracking at 82.14%
However, this does go up once at least a goal is scored:
1-0 @ HT is 91.38%
1-1 @ HT is 88.10%
2-0 @ HT is 94.44%This is across 118 matches from my filter selection. I'll look to posting my table of all scorelines after I've added the data for this weekend.
P
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@paul-foster Hi Paul, I've pasted the results of my O1.5 filter below and they look quite similar to your figures. One interesting thing for me is that the SHG strike rate is higher if there has been at least 1 FHG. The filter had a really bad week or so from 22nd January where the O1.5 dropped to about 50% of 23 - 24 games during that period but it has picked up again over the last few days.
Like yourself I'm just looking for the best way to trade this e.g. lay U1.5 as per Keith's excellent 3% club, SHG or even a LTD.
Hope this is of use to you.
