2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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the tennis filters have nadal vs opelka, but he's playing denis kudla in acapulco?
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Another retirement this time Cristian when leading against an out of sorts Kasatkina on the right side of this one
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@chris-osborne yeah first lay of the match for me.. move on we go...
today just seems bit of a back foot kinda day.. but will analyse before getting into anything anyhow still same process
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@chris-osborne The bot i have made follows your strat of removing half liablity after a first break then green out if the dog can hold his serve. it could easily be adapted to just leave it until the set ends. I'll look into that once i'm happy with the first version and hopefully give people a choice of which one they want to use.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simji similar though process for me on mertens game.
Backed kvitova after mertens broke in first game. Mertens serve is one of the weakest around she isn’t going to go a set without being broken, re backed after Mertens missed break points in 3rd game, Kvitova has won the next four games.
Cashed out for just over a pt profit
What do I know Mertens takes the 1st set 7-5 definite lay of her in second
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@paul-adams-0 nice one
I’m not using software at the minute something I’ll look at when I have a week off in March but could be useful.
I’m comparing Martin’s strategy against my approach and if exiting at end of set is profitible will be a good one to add to the set and forget tool box.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Lay First Set Strategy
Speaking to @Dan Mackinnon yesterday promised I would show my Lay First Set Strategy - Any more experienced tennis traders feel free to add as necessary.
Hey Chris, so I've been working on the fairbot bot for your strategy. I'm building it to be used as a set and forget strat using the tennis filters. It will only bet on close games where the first set finishes 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6. As I'm new to bot building it is proving to be quite complicated but i am enjoying the learning experience.
Basically I've had to figure out and make a rule for each score and outcome in the second set depending on who is serving. that took me a while as i was also working nightshifts so was limited on time but i got there in the end. There's still one small problem where it isn't laying at the full liability, I'm testing with it set to £5 liability but some matches it will lay for a random amount under this, some matches as low as £4. Spoke to Andrey from fairbot and he thinks its because the price moves that quick after a score has settled so he's going to show me how to set a short delay giving time for the price to settle. Once I've got that sorted i'll share it with dan and if we're both happy with it i'll share it with the community. hopefully wont take to long. -
@simji similar though process for me on mertens game.
Backed kvitova after mertens broke in first game. Mertens serve is one of the weakest around she isn’t going to go a set without being broken, re backed after Mertens missed break points in 3rd game, Kvitova has won the next four games.
Cashed out for just over a pt profit
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@simji said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Lay Qiang Wang @1.09
took liability out @ 1.10/1.13/1.14 left 0.2 stake in. sadly davis got broke on the next two serves. I Left it to run to get my minimum green (probably being greedy but both players have broken each other in the first set)
I had a shocker on this one thought it would be close but Davis never in it lost 2pts for a break even day - could be worse
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Sometimes it’s better to be lucky, doesn’t happen often. Odds too high to lay Garcia after she took the first set v Halep, meant to back Halep but instread backed Garcia who then won in straight sets.
Halep is in the same group of players as Svitolina who players seem to have worked out. She is losing to players she never used to on a regular basis
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Just the eight breaks of serve so far from 17 games between Martincova and Svitolina and it’s only 2-2 in the second all four games in the second have been breaks
Got my point from lfs but anyone laying the server would be having a field day
Not sure what’s going on with Svitolina, pre covid she would have destroyed Martincova struggles to beat anyone these days.
Just 19 breaks in 36 games even for the WTA that’s extreme
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Just the eight breaks of serve so far from 17 games between Martincova and Svitolina and it’s only 2-2 in the second all four games in the second have been breaks
Got my point from lfs but anyone laying the server would be having a field day
Not sure what’s going on with Svitolina, pre covid she would have destroyed Martincova struggles to beat anyone these days.
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2pts profit from laying Tauson and Kostyuk after both won the 1st set - cashed out on Konjuh as soon as she broke Kostyuk in the first game.
Removed liability on Bencic and cashed out after she held.
If i'd done nothing, both won the 2nd set, Bencic fairly easily although she lost the 3rd and Konjuh and Kostyuk went to 7-5 so bit of a roller coaster
Nothing else for me today