Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread

Martin

@matt-wood the version I'm testing is £300 up to £10 stakes!

Matt Wood

@martin I dont have Thailand added on mine. I would imagine thats like the Singapore league with loads of goals?

Last weekend and this have hammered my filter a bit. Hopefully just some variance hitting.

Martin

@matt-wood how had Thailand been for you?

Matt Wood

@dinobot No probs, any questions just ask. Its still early days for this so don't risk money on it.

Dinobot

@Matt-Wood I understand now. Thanks for explaining

Matt Wood

@dinobot This is how I have it set up.

Lines 2 and 4 essentially do nothing at the moment but the values will be pulled out into my spreadsheet where I can play around with them.

Hope that helps

Dinobot

@Matt-Wood sorry, I think I've read the filter wrong in that case.

I read the filter as
-in the last 10 matches, any goals scored by the home team before 20 mins must be equal or less than 1
-in the last 10 matches, any goals conceded by the home team must average out to be zero or more

Is that not right? Please correct me as I find the wording of the filters quite confusing sometimes.

Martin

I'm ditching England 3pm Saturday KO at least from UK, two awful weeks from those leagues.

Matt Wood

@dinobot Hi Dino

Initially I did intend it to be for scalping the under 2.5 like you say. I noticed that it was doing well as a set and forget.

The FH conceded lines are set to zero so it pulls the value out of the software when I download it. I will be using these to mess about on my spreadsheet to improve the strike rate and see how it does.

Dinobot

@Matt-Wood @Martin I would love to know what your thinking is behind the filter. Looking at it without knowing it's for straight betting, I would assume you were looking to back unders and trade out before 20 mins.

Martin

@matt-wood ah ok gives me more hope to ditch it!

Matt Wood

I think ultimately even if this filter ends up in the bin it has proven to me that there is something to be had here.

I only added Portugal 2 in earlier this week. 2 games one winner and one loser. I have a feeling it might be an inconsistent league.

Martin

@matt-wood do you do portugal 2nd div? that's the one that has been well down for me

Matt Wood

@martin wow thats pretty rough. I am certain there will be leagues removed from mine at the end of the month. Currently over all my longest loosing run is 7. Happened twice in 586 games now.

Martin

@matt-wood mine just had ten losers on the bounce such is variance, defo need to reduce leagues but need more data first

Matt Wood

@martin 17 winners from 29 games, 58.62%. Ave odds 1.77.

Not too bad by the looks of it. After being so tempted to open up the leagues like yours I have mad the choice to just leave it alone now until the end of the month then sort through it.

Bad day yesterday overall for me though

Martin

@Matt-Wood how has Portugal performed for you? Close to binning it from mine!

Martin

@matt-wood liquidity only tends to be an issue if you want the absolute best price and won't settle for less, I have found leaving money in (splitting it up a bit) tend to get matched even at prices it should not. Often Over/Under 2.5 goals market seems better priced up than the match odds in these lower league games.

Matt Wood

@martin Yea I took a look at your testing sheet from yesterday and that winner in Kuwait was massive! I dont have them on mine but am tempted to open it up and include them.

I suppose liquidity may be a problem, although not for me and my tiny bank for now

Martin

@matt-wood I keep wanting to get rid of more of the low level leagues, to reduce selections but they are performing too well a good problem to have I guess!