2019 Cricket Trading Thread
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England bat big and win by innings..... well that's my prediction. There is movement and possible reverse swing later in the game as it's a dry surface. Good to have proper test cricket.
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A wicket looks likely soon surely!
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well it has livened up for the bowlers, but India have been catching like England slippers!
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some good movement with the ball now
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Draw already touched 3.4 - managed to get in at 3.45
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liking the lay of the draw around 4 - pitch often livens up after an hour or so when the effects of the heavy roller wear off
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Nice to bank a bit of profit before the first ball
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is that even money causing that or a betfair trader just flicking the switch . managed minor ticks ha . bring on a ripper test
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Draw price come in nicely too after the toss.
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Sun shining at The Oval.... whoever wins the toss will certainly bat and their price will shorten quite sharply - especially if it's England
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@Richard-Futter been waiting for the draw to go pop and spike north
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England around evens, India 2/1... look like pretty realistic odds to me.
The one result I'm 99.9% sure won't be happening is the draw. The forecast is for plenty of cloud cover, which will suit both attacks down to a tee, with little or no chance of rain.
The opening partnerships both look brittle in the extreme, so a lay of the draw around 6 looks a very safe bet indeed. Usually the price comes in a little at the start, so I will be drip laying.
There have been some big first innings scores here in recent years, although they've still produced results, but England and South Africa have been skittled out for first innings scores of well under 200 too.
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@stephen-morfey good stuff stephen.... an excellent profit. This is a game of ups and downs; no one trades perfectly all the time and it's the end result that counts. Most of the time I make good profits on Test cricket, but every time I always reckon I could have doubled it if I'd traded better!
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Hi Stephen,
You've made some good points and it's good to see some transparency but i would put it down to one simple thing and that's experience, i and many others have been in your boat before, what the 4th test would do is convince that odds can be wrong, and you can be right with simple judgement, you fell for the trap the whole market fell for in that when the market swung against you, you reacted how the masses did, the price dropped quickly, when i said i either win big or lose big, it actually stemmed from my decision that odds were so generous, i would accept the loss if i was wrong, i was happy to take a total stake loss. I would also do the same thing in the situation time and time again. It was a good lesson for you and also one you still profited from, i'm probably a little more aggressive with my staking but i have been trading cricket for 8 or 9 years. Onto the next one.
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@simon said in Summer Cricket Thread:
@stephen-morfey great analysis, love reading stuff like this and learning as I’m fairly new to the game. Guess it also shows how quickly emotion can take over when you stake more than you usually would. I have a similar bank and would have been sweating bullets with 20% on the line so fair play to you
Glad it's helped others.
I'm relatively new to cricket trading (joined BTC about a year ago) but been profiting from advantage playing sports and casinos since 2005. I've found Test Match cricket the easiest sport to trade so far.One thing I've learned along the way over the years is there's actually 3 people in any trade
Your past self
Your present self
Your future selfYour past self made a careful decision based on stats and careful consideration of the odds available, probability, stake size and total bank roll in front of them and is trusting the other two to carry out the trade to the agreed trading plan with the correct entry and exit points if they occur.
Your future self will review how the trade went. And will be happy either way win or lose knowing that your past self made all the correct choices.
You are your present self - an emotional chimp with fight or flight emotional reactions. Prone to make bad decisions under pressure.
Don't p*ss off your future self by straying away from an agreed trading plan.
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@stephen-morfey nice read and yes I have a mental rule of cashing out and or even re laying @1.2 in some scenarios
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@jalpesh-madlani said in Summer Cricket Thread:
@stephen-morfey very good reading - thank you for sharing. May I ask how your perceived value was 1.2?
Only took 1.2 as an estimate It was mainly from Richard Futters post yesterday and the general consensus on here that the odds should have been very short/odds on
@richard-futter said in Summer Cricket Thread:
Right; having a back of England at 1.72. History says their true price should be 1.2.
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@stephen-morfey very good reading - thank you for sharing. May I ask how your perceived value was 1.2?
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excellent piece and agreed its what many traders go through when making decisions. Being fairly new to cricket trading in general (tennis more my game) it was so interesting to see the entry points in a test match. It would seem to me that value was found a few times when not only what Stephen pointed out in his trade but what the other traders commented on during the days on the match. Finding the correct entry for me is still a little unclear in test matches as I,m a layer and when alot of the guys found value in backing England at various points I was merely laying India or the draw which was only really available early on for me between 5-10 above that and the liability was to much for me. So my trades were all based around laying india although I was getting sweat on when the last decent partnership was gathering pace....but everyone still seemed to be calm and not changing their positions. Another thing I have found with test cricket...dont get panicked out of a position to quickly....the pitch/bowlers/position of match/stats/history are all reasons to keep evaluating your position but with your mind on the reason you entered in the 1st place....so I find it great that people share their thoughts and trades and may it increase and we all benefit.....sorry its a bit on a rambling on comment
