Which Way Next??
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@paul-foster Wow its look very promising then!
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@martin-walker I don't have the odds data at the minute, so need to collate this to be in a comfortable position.
I did find an article which proposed a formula to apply to lay strategies to establish the break even lay price based on the strike rate.
Based on my SHG findings to date the maximum lay price I should accept to break even is 7.38. Anything lower than this, in theory, should be profitable in the long term. The small number of odds (circa 30 matches) I've recorded so far have been an average of 4.80, so that's looking positive.
Article link below:
http://lay-betting-systems.com/the-safe-lay-formula-for-testing-betting-systems/P
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Paul, really good stuff.
As a newbie, would really like to assist in some way, (if you need/want it of course!) towards the stat collation. Also, as a newbie i have identified the Lay U1.5 strategy as a good one to start with (probably influenced somewhat by Keith !), and am looking to implement a solid strategy for the beginning of next season - maybe in order so that i can look towards getting to some point of looking to go Pro by end of this calendar year. -
Id happily put money down on 263 games worth of data if i had the odds and it was s sound strategy
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Thanks @ryan.
I've not collected much data on odds as yet. Of the odds I have collected the average is 5.02 and I need more data to draw any conclusions.
The 1st goal average is 27 mins. 154 matches had a goal before 30-mins.
The only scoreline I've looked at so far is 0-0 at HT. 56 matches were 0-0 and 46 went on to score. I will start looking at other scorelines.
More updates to follow as I keep tracking and conduct further analysis.
Good to know that it looks to be on the right track though.
P
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Thanks @martin. . I will start comparing leagues.
I started with the filter at the end of November. It does seem to generate quite alot of matches.
I've got 20 selections for tomorrow and I only look at the top 2 leagues for most major countries.
P
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@paul-foster Corr that FHG one looks a bit sexy, same with the SHG bit of tightening could both be solid.
my Q's
Does starting odds have any bearing on the winners and losers?
Whats the average first goal time?
Does the score in the first half impact the SHG? (I.e. if 1-0 @ HT then the winning trades are X % where if 0-0 then the strike rate drops - then you can get rid of the crap HT scores from the SHG qualifiers).
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very nice!
- I like your FHG rate a lot! I usually get in at 15 mins with around 65% success rate
- The only thing I would look at at this stage is the leagues and how they perform when compared
- 263 is a decent amount of data, when did you start in November?
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Thanks Matt
I'll keep tracking and see what 1000 games looks like.
Paul
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Morning Paul.
For my tests I like to get to at least 500 games before considering any tweaks. More is better.
I tend not to collect odds for this first pass through. Once I make any tweaks I then start to include odds and go for around 1000 games before considering live staking.
I am sure the more experienced heads will chip in here with some advice, probably better to listen to them as I am far from a pro at this
On a side note the SHG goal number, if it holds up across something like 1000 games, is pretty good.
