The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson before you ask, yes it's been a slow day in the office!
I've put together a Google Doc of your results so far.
Total trades placed: 82
O1.5 trades: 48 trades placed, 41 wins, 85% SR, 62.9pts profit (assuming £1=1pt). Ave Odds 4.4
SHG trades: 34 trades placed, 31 wins, 91% SR, 81pts profit. Ave Odds 4.5I've used the information from Keith's Evernote posts and hopefully this is also useful to other members. Those asking whether to back or lay, just swap the stake for liability.
I'm not 100% sure how Keith is staking as it seemed to fluctuate between £3 for odds over 4.0 and £4 for odds under 4.0. Then increased to £4 once the bank doubled. However, the "target" is based on compounded stakes so I've also included what 3% of the bank is with each day.
Finally, I've included a chart showing the trend after each day which highlights there's been a couple of bumps along the way. Hopefully that's inspiration to any newer members (and myself) that a bad day doesn't make a bad trader.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFRkufvFhV5Ika16yZRgIvTbxFnUqI8VwzjLtaUpl_w/edit?usp=sharing
I'm sure there's more experienced Google Doc users (Google Doc'ers?) who can mess about with it. If you can't get access let me know, or if you want an excel version.
Toda rabah!! Love this!
Thanks.
I think this is a really good “live” example of a lot of trading traits.
- Game selection focusing on quality over quantity/ not over trading
- Bank / risk management. Consider how much liability is used at any one day
- Staking management
- Dealing with bad days
I’m sure there’s more that I haven’t considered just yet
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3% Club Thursday, 27th January - (Day 22)
Actually found one tonight. Odds are a little high and I may just do the 1.5's. Will evaluate at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson before you ask, yes it's been a slow day in the office!
I've put together a Google Doc of your results so far.
Total trades placed: 82
O1.5 trades: 48 trades placed, 41 wins, 85% SR, 62.9pts profit (assuming £1=1pt). Ave Odds 4.4
SHG trades: 34 trades placed, 31 wins, 91% SR, 81pts profit. Ave Odds 4.5I've used the information from Keith's Evernote posts and hopefully this is also useful to other members. Those asking whether to back or lay, just swap the stake for liability.
I'm not 100% sure how Keith is staking as it seemed to fluctuate between £3 for odds over 4.0 and £4 for odds under 4.0. Then increased to £4 once the bank doubled. However, the "target" is based on compounded stakes so I've also included what 3% of the bank is with each day.
Finally, I've included a chart showing the trend after each day which highlights there's been a couple of bumps along the way. Hopefully that's inspiration to any newer members (and myself) that a bad day doesn't make a bad trader.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFRkufvFhV5Ika16yZRgIvTbxFnUqI8VwzjLtaUpl_w/edit?usp=sharing
I'm sure there's more experienced Google Doc users (Google Doc'ers?) who can mess about with it. If you can't get access let me know, or if you want an excel version.
Toda rabah!! Love this!
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon I would also spank his bottom if I didn't think he'd enjoy it too much
You'll be using a whip, right?!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon I would also spank his bottom if I didn't think he'd enjoy it too much
If Keith says he'll only continue if you did then you've dug yourself a right hole there!
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@dan-mackinnon I would also spank his bottom if I didn't think he'd enjoy it too much
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid Thanks DJ.
Yes, i understand the pounds v points element - i was just highlighting that he has raised his Bank by over 100 per cent and not the 16.7 mentioned in your post - they must be 2 different calcs methinks.You are right but remember the bank is based on two separate strats, a 1.5 and a SHG strat the profit of which is approximately 16.5 and 17 pts respectively. Combined this is 33 pts in total.
At £5 a point say that's £165 profit which is more than double the initial £100.
Ah, so , if as Keith is using 3% for each trade and total points is 33, then total profit is approx 99 pounds which is approx. 99% of original Bank and therefore 99 points profit.
I may have this wrong, but I thought Keith was using 10% liability for each trade. Therefore the stake will fluctuate to this 10% liability depending upon the odds.
He is aiming to make 3% of bank profit per day, but this is compounded.
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@dan-mackinnon Need access
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@keith-anderson before you ask, yes it's been a slow day in the office!
I've put together a Google Doc of your results so far.
Total trades placed: 82
O1.5 trades: 48 trades placed, 41 wins, 85% SR, 62.9pts profit (assuming £1=1pt). Ave Odds 4.4
SHG trades: 34 trades placed, 31 wins, 91% SR, 81pts profit. Ave Odds 4.5I've used the information from Keith's Evernote posts and hopefully this is also useful to other members. Those asking whether to back or lay, just swap the stake for liability.
I'm not 100% sure how Keith is staking as it seemed to fluctuate between £3 for odds over 4.0 and £4 for odds under 4.0. Then increased to £4 once the bank doubled. However, the "target" is based on compounded stakes so I've also included what 3% of the bank is with each day.
Finally, I've included a chart showing the trend after each day which highlights there's been a couple of bumps along the way. Hopefully that's inspiration to any newer members (and myself) that a bad day doesn't make a bad trader.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFRkufvFhV5Ika16yZRgIvTbxFnUqI8VwzjLtaUpl_w/edit?usp=sharing
I'm sure there's more experienced Google Doc users (Google Doc'ers?) who can mess about with it. If you can't get access let me know, or if you want an excel version.
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid Thanks DJ.
Yes, i understand the pounds v points element - i was just highlighting that he has raised his Bank by over 100 per cent and not the 16.7 mentioned in your post - they must be 2 different calcs methinks.You are right but remember the bank is based on two separate strats, a 1.5 and a SHG strat the profit of which is approximately 16.5 and 17 pts respectively. Combined this is 33 pts in total.
At £5 a point say that's £165 profit which is more than double the initial £100.
Ah, so , if as Keith is using 3% for each trade and total points is 33, then total profit is approx 99 pounds which is approx. 99% of original Bank and therefore 99 points profit.
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid Thanks DJ.
Yes, i understand the pounds v points element - i was just highlighting that he has raised his Bank by over 100 per cent and not the 16.7 mentioned in your post - they must be 2 different calcs methinks.You are right but remember the bank is based on two separate strats, a 1.5 and a SHG strat the profit of which is approximately 16.5 and 17 pts respectively. Combined this is 33 pts in total.
At £5 a point say that's £165 profit which is more than double the initial £100.
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks Dan
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@dj-reid Thanks DJ.
Yes, i understand the pounds v points element - i was just highlighting that he has raised his Bank by over 100 per cent and not the 16.7 mentioned in your post - they must be 2 different calcs methinks. -
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
OK, its time for me to put my newbie dumb ass into this current discussion, please be easy on me, its a couple of questions that i have been dying to ask but have thought , no, dont show how stupid you are , but anyway, here goes ....
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OK, with Keiths 3pc , one of his aims is to double his Bank from one month to next, so, say, 100 pounds at Jan start to 200 pounds at Jan end and thereon.
Keith has already achieved his end goal of over 200.
So, ..... therefore shouldnt his pp be in excess of 100 ? instead of 16.7 or whatever DJ said? -
SHG has always intrigued me, as there isnt a market purely to trade there will be a SHG - or is there?!
So, i've taken this as an option to a) carry on with the U1.5, b) maybe look for another market, such as LTD, (if its drawing at HT), or any other market that you feel suitable for a SHG.
What i have found, for me personally( as i bit risk averse !), is that i am checking the scores at HT (whilst watching as many of the games as i can), and with any still at 0-0, i check the stats for attempts etc, and look to bail out of 1.5 on 50-55 if still no goal and then raise a new Lay U0.5 trade.
Also, can this be scaled? - so, in other words, if you start with 1000 , could you get to 2000? I know liquidity might be a bit of an issue, but with 3 per cent stakes you would be looking at 30 pound trades, which might not be too much of an issue methinks.
Be gentle on me ....
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I believe the principle behind the 3% is 3.33 x 30 = 99.9. So start with 100, 30 days later you should be at 199.9. It's also that he's looking to win 3 or recently 4 pts per trade based off £100 bank. So there's probably been around 40-45 successful trades over the past 21 days. £3 x 40 = £120 profit.
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Personally I lay the next goal market but you could also lay the correct score. For example if the game is 0-0 at HT you could lay u0.5 or lay 0-0FT. The odds should be roughly the same either way. The trouble with LTD is the game can still end in a draw even if there's a goal. By LCS you can't lose once there's a goal.
As for your last point, finding games that are 0-0 at HT and trading for another goal might be profitable but you'll have to track your results to find out. In honesty it seems like a lot of effort and you run the risk of hitting bad spells because you won't have a trading plan.
Anything can be scaled if there's enough liquidity. Again this is a personal preference, but I would like to see £10k+ matched on any market I get involved in. The reason being, once you start scaling up you'll still get matched pretty easily and the market should be more fluid. Imagine reaching the point you're putting £1,000 on a trade but there's only £250 matched in the market. Not only would you not likely get your full stake matched yet it's tied up so you can't use it elsewhere, but you'll likely distort the market that it won't move anyway. If you want to learn about liquidity and market movements then I would suggest scalping. Say you took £10 and use that as your learning budget, pick a few games and back U0.5G at kick off with minimum stakes, make a note of the liquidity and odds, then check on them every 5 minutes and make a note of how much both have moved. You'll find the ones with more money often move quicker and the ones with very low money will hardly move at all. Just be prepared to lose your £2 if a goal is scored!
Hopefully that makes sense
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@kevyn-clark with your FHG Split Stake and indeed with any Spli Stake trade you need to work out your average winning odds... This is where you create value
Take my Split Stake where I enter on circa 12mins I need average winning odds of 0.162pts and average losing odds of 0.8pts... This would generate circa 6.5pts green every 100 trades (hence why I automate it)... This is with a 90% strike rate.
With Ryan's you should average 0.25pts green and 0.665pts red which will return circa 6.7pts green every 100 trades... This is with a 80% strike rate.
I think I've got my numbers right but I'm sure you get the gist
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@mull Thanks that is a handy little calculator
