My First Half Goal Strategy
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@keith-anderson
if i ever forget to reply just tell me off as i wouldn't intend to be rude I've only done basic analysis so far but the filter is showing 79.8% SHGs across 210 matches.
There may be a way to use this to either reduce losses on FHG or just trade it separately. I have a host of areas I'm going to investigate yet.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Over the winter break I'm doing some very detailed analysis of the filter as I've noticed an extremely high strike rate of SECOND half goals too, plus only 5% of the selections have ended 0-0 at FT which shows 80% of losing FHG selections have a SHG.
Anyway, I've only done a few hours of spreadsheet work so will see what i can find over the next 2 weeks.
I spotted this a few weeks ago. In fact, I was meant to ask you how many of your selections had a SHG. I was thinking to myself, how rude that Matt never replied to me, then I noticed I hadn't sent the message!
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@matt-ayles It will be interesting to see the variance on this and then if those patterns continue and replicate year on year.
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@ryan said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles True, also gives the teams chance to rest and recoup so that they can come back and fire this filter back to its heights.
Yeah its struggling this month. It was tracking at 80% during testing and needs 72% to be profitable. Unfortunately January is at 65% hence the loss.
Including the testing phase its still around 76% which is good.
I'm recording all the goal data and seeing if re-entering the market, either O1.5 or SHG would prove profitable or just make it worse!
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@matt-ayles True, also gives the teams chance to rest and recoup so that they can come back and fire this filter back to its heights.
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Over the winter break I'm doing some very detailed analysis of the filter as I've noticed an extremely high strike rate of SECOND half goals too, plus only 5% of the selections have ended 0-0 at FT which shows 80% of losing FHG selections have a SHG.
Anyway, I've only done a few hours of spreadsheet work so will see what i can find over the next 2 weeks.
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Just one today, Luton v Bristol City.
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@ryan said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles winter breaks
I'm viewing it as a positive. The filters on a downturn and it gives me a couple of weeks to analyse some more data and perhaps find some improvements.
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@matt-ayles winter breaks
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Nothing today.
Could be a quiet week with the winter breaks.
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Filter is taking a bit of a downturn, I am wondering if losing so many top European players to AFCON has impacted the number of goals being scored?
Anyway, not to panic just 80 matches in.
Loss today of 2.3 points.
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12 matches on the filter today. Going to be a busy one.
1030, Hatayspor v Rizespor, Turkey
1200, Metz v Nice, France
1300, Altay v Konyaspor, Turkey
1330, PSV v Ajax, Holland
1400, Leicester v Brighton, England
1400, Torino v Sassuolo, Italy
1545, Sparta Rotterdam v Utrecht, Holland
1600, Galatasaray v Trabzonspor, Turkey
1700, Empoli v Roma, Italy
1730, Mechelen v Anderlecht, Belgium
1945, AC Milan v Juventus, Italy
2030, Porto v Famalicao, Portugal -
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Fairly quiet Saturday for the filter with 7 today:
B. Monchengladbach v Union Berlin, Germany, 1430
Hoffenheim v Dortmund, Germany, 1430
Leeds v Newcastle, England, 1500
Bournemouth v Hull, England, 1500
Walsall v Exeter, England, 1500
Heerenveen v Zwolle, Holland, 1900
Lazio v Atalanta, Italy, 1945Times are UK.
Going through a rough patch... happens!
4/7 today, -1.4 points
Quite a few on the list tomorrow though.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Arouca v Benfica, Portugal, 1900
Oostende v Antwerp, Belgium, 1945
Watford v Norwich, England, 2000Good result Matt, I was in the Benfica game on U1.5 gls and surprised it took them a penalty to get the 1st Goal, still either way a result
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Fairly quiet Saturday for the filter with 7 today:
B. Monchengladbach v Union Berlin, Germany, 1430
Hoffenheim v Dortmund, Germany, 1430
Leeds v Newcastle, England, 1500
Bournemouth v Hull, England, 1500
Walsall v Exeter, England, 1500
Heerenveen v Zwolle, Holland, 1900
Lazio v Atalanta, Italy, 1945Times are UK.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
3 today:
Arouca v Benfica, Portugal, 1900
Oostende v Antwerp, Belgium, 1945
Watford v Norwich, England, 2000Plenty of goals, most in the second half unfortunately. VAR not helping this evening.
Never mind, goes that way!-1.4 points.
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3 today:
Arouca v Benfica, Portugal, 1900
Oostende v Antwerp, Belgium, 1945
Watford v Norwich, England, 2000 -
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Only 1 today. Galatasaray v Kasimpasa, 1700
Goal, +0.7 points
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
3 left today after postponements:
1400 - Kayserispor v Basaksehir, Turkey
1800 - Lille v Lorient, France
2000 - Brentford v Man U, EnglandOnly one FHG in Lille yesterday unfortunately. -1.7 points
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Only 1 today. Galatasaray v Kasimpasa, 1700
