The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace not necessarily - its not going to be for everyone, like I've said Im not an expert and Ryan sits and makes judgements over coffee - and he's better at this than I'll ever be its just I needed to learn a system to stop me arguing with myself about how to short list filters
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Wow, Bayessian and Poisson models ... i clearly have a long way to go...
Keith, do you do Bayesian and Poisson models ??!
No. Never even looked into it. I don’t need to
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Wow, Bayessian and Poisson models ... i clearly have a long way to go...
Keith, do you do Bayesian and Poisson models ??!
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What really matters is that you don't back whatever you meant to lay
Financially if a market is fully liquid it doesn't really matter if you back over 1.5 or lay under 1.5, it's more to do with your staking and what is easier for you.
this is what i was trying to say bank mangement/staking plans is the key
Sorry @James-Rome - when you said backing you'd only lose 10pts, layout you could lose 30pts - I read it as though you thought you'd back and lay the same amounts.
so i would be backing 1 Point so that 1% of my bank so from £100 bank that £1. So what i was trying to say was if you backing or laying using one point.
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5So using my example other 10 games
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1 = £10
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5 = £3.5You are right i could lay the £0.28 to risk 1 point. But i just find it easier to back with a point. Does that make sense sorry i am really not good at communicating via writting stuff down.If its not PM and ill try and explain
You're absolutely spot on - But that's also what I was trying to get across. From your example, you'd never look at a back and a lay with the same input...
It's you're back stake and liability that are the comparable values.
Sorry, I know i'm labouring this point... But it was just in case someone else, a newbie like me, saw that and said, i'm never going to lay anything, it will cost me three times as much in risk.
Yes you are right essentially it doesnt matter what you do back or lay I was trying to point to anyone reading that maybe knew laying can be effective you just need to have a stake plan in place thats the main thing.
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@kevyn-clark honestly all I did was watch videos and tutorials on You Tube on excel, on Poisson and bayesian models - and without sounding too geeky there are loads of really interesting university papers on line where scholars have researched predictive models in football betting - reading some of those sent me down the Poisson path. And then because I feel strongly its not all about just stats I needed a way of measuring the non stat stuff (subjective) and thats where the Bayesian stuff came in.. its far from finished but its helped me progress at least.
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@mark-maguire Thank you for the info, I think what you put down there makes a lot of sense, mind you i'm not quite smart enough to understand it as well as I would like. It's given me something to think about no doubt, some more video watching and researching for me.
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@kevyn-clark I don't mind at all.. They do come with a semi health warning in that I'm relatively new to it but they seem to add up more often than not.
The majority of what I get is from here.
First matches have to meet criteria in the filters I have set up on here which are based on attacking play stats.
Then I have an excel model which I basically input average goals scored and conceded for home games for the home team,. average goals scored and conceded away for the away team. The league average for home and away. These are from a stats site.
This poisson model throws out the percentages you see me posting but I have added a calc to account for bookmakers round which allows me to check them against actual odds and start to determine value.
I then do exactly the same for half time stats and that gives me my FHG %
Finally I put the match odds through a bayesian model for which I use the ELO and Goal Supremacy stats from this site as well as a 'relative performance stat' (measure performance against opposition type) and that averages those with the Poisson Odds and Actual Odds to give me a figure based on more subjective factors.. I want to extend this to include stuff like the weather, tiredness etc but havent worked out how to attribute percentages to it yet.
But basically the net result of that is that if for example the Bayesian model and the Poisson model say that the Match Odds for the home team for example should be 2.2 and the away team 3.1, whereas actual odds are say 1.85 and 3.5, it will promote caution in my staking. Or if the opposite and odds are generous I can be more aggressive.
Plus the % figures I post dictate my trading - aggressive, cautious, or not at all..
All this because I havent got the discipline of Ryan for example who can sit with his coffee and work out good and bad trades... I found myself arguing the case with myself and needed something to give me that discipline.
Sorry if I've rambled and made no sense..
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@mark-maguire do you mind me asking are you using a seperate stats software to get these percentages?
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@stuart-wallace for what its worth a quick run of my stats say 02.5 18% (odds of 6) O1.5 44% (2.45) O0.5 78% (1.38) FHG 62% (1.75)
Projected score 1-1 -
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What really matters is that you don't back whatever you meant to lay
Financially if a market is fully liquid it doesn't really matter if you back over 1.5 or lay under 1.5, it's more to do with your staking and what is easier for you.
this is what i was trying to say bank mangement/staking plans is the key
Sorry @James-Rome - when you said backing you'd only lose 10pts, layout you could lose 30pts - I read it as though you thought you'd back and lay the same amounts.
so i would be backing 1 Point so that 1% of my bank so from £100 bank that £1. So what i was trying to say was if you backing or laying using one point.
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5So using my example other 10 games
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1 = £10
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5 = £3.5You are right i could lay the £0.28 to risk 1 point. But i just find it easier to back with a point. Does that make sense sorry i am really not good at communicating via writting stuff down.If its not PM and ill try and explain
You're absolutely spot on - But that's also what I was trying to get across. From your example, you'd never look at a back and a lay with the same input...
It's you're back stake and liability that are the comparable values.
Sorry, I know i'm labouring this point... But it was just in case someone else, a newbie like me, saw that and said, i'm never going to lay anything, it will cost me three times as much in risk.
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Due to the lack of games tonight, and me being a bit bullish after the cricket today, i have Backed a tiny amount on Getafe v Granada tonight for 0-0 and 1-0 - am i stoopid ? (ok,ok, dont answer that !)
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What really matters is that you don't back whatever you meant to lay
Financially if a market is fully liquid it doesn't really matter if you back over 1.5 or lay under 1.5, it's more to do with your staking and what is easier for you.
this is what i was trying to say bank mangement/staking plans is the key
Sorry @James-Rome - when you said backing you'd only lose 10pts, layout you could lose 30pts - I read it as though you thought you'd back and lay the same amounts.
so i would be backing 1 Point so that 1% of my bank so from £100 bank that £1. So what i was trying to say was if you backing or laying using one point.
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5So using my example other 10 games
£1 back at 1.28 = Risk £1 = £10
£1 Lay at 4.5 = Risk £3.5 = £3.5You are right i could lay the £0.28 to risk 1 point. But i just find it easier to back with a point. Does that make sense sorry i am really not good at communicating via writting stuff down.If its not PM and ill try and explain
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@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What really matters is that you don't back whatever you meant to lay
Financially if a market is fully liquid it doesn't really matter if you back over 1.5 or lay under 1.5, it's more to do with your staking and what is easier for you.
this is what i was trying to say bank mangement/staking plans is the key
Sorry @James-Rome - when you said backing you'd only lose 10pts, layout you could lose 30pts - I read it as though you thought you'd back and lay the same amounts.
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What really matters is that you don't back whatever you meant to lay
Financially if a market is fully liquid it doesn't really matter if you back over 1.5 or lay under 1.5, it's more to do with your staking and what is easier for you.
this is what i was trying to say bank mangement/staking plans is the key
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mick-mcmahon Yeah, but no, but.... (forgetting the Keith wanting 3 per cent) Most traders on here do lays (LTD,LCS,LU1.5), not many traders talk about Backing a situation (though i've seen it occasionally (but not as much as Lay) on the Cricket thread)
When you lay the draw or lay the correct score then you're saying I expect any other scenario except this one to happen.
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@james-rome Yeh I am the same as you, I prefer backing so my liability is fixed, particularly on busy days. I have a min odds I back at anyway so most of the time it’s fixed at both ends, I.e stake always the same and odds 1.33 or above.
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@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Doesnt matter if you back or lay it depends on your bank roll mangement. I do overs but i back O1.5 with point i could lay but if i do i often have a few trades on so say on a saturday i could have 10 trades. With backing if i lose worst case would be -10 points. If i was to lay at odds of 4.0 worse case could be -30.0 Points. I back as if i lose i find i mentally better to deal with and doint tie up to much liability
Good point well; presented James and today you have been very helpful for and with me.
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@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Is there a reason you lay u1.5 rather than back o1.5?
I back the overs so just double-checking I’m not missing a trick or whether it’s just personal preference
Good question Andy, i have wondered this too - much less liability doing the Back option !
Its a general question from me really in as much as it seems most traders on here prefer to lay rather than Back - just wondered what the reason is but have been too stupid to askSpouting random (but not a million miles off) numbers, I'd thought about this too and I think it's a bit swings and roundabouts.
laying odds of 3.2 with £4 would win you £4 or lose you £12.8
backing odds of 1.3 with £12 would win you £3.60 or lose you £12so laying is easier if you come from "i want to earn £4 from this trade" were as backing is easier from "I want to risk £12 on this trade"
Following Keith's (he'll be changing his name soon) 3% club, the idea is to earn 3% on a trade. Working out 3% of you bank and laying it is easier than working out 3% of your bank divided by odds minus 1 multiplied by 300 (for 3%)
Doesnt matter if you back or lay it depends on your bank roll mangement. I do overs but i back O1.5 with point i could lay but if i do i often have a few trades on so say on a saturday i could have 10 trades. With backing if i lose worst case would be -10 points. If i was to lay at odds of 4.0 worse case could be -30.0 Points. I back as if i lose i find i mentally better to deal with and doint tie up to much liability
But you wouldn't back and lay with the same amount. When you lay, you've essentially become the bookie.
if you look at the amount you back and what you earn from that - if you lay'd the same as what you'd earn from the back the liability would be around the same as you backed (not that are that finely balanced especially in play - by roughly)
If all you 10 trades where backs of 1pt at 1.3 you'd earn a third of a point on each win and lose 1pt otherwise. For the same, you'd lay a third of a point and get that if you win but lose a point if it lost.
