Dave Hayes - LTD December Results
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On this blog I shall be posting my December LTD Results. It is also my Trading Blog for accountability.
While I am no means a Pro Trader Yet, that is my ultimate end goal, so this blog is my own journey to that point and if you are like me, a previous match better or someone who was using Betfair using your own knowledge, but have come to BTC to learn more, which you will achieve, feel free to use this blog as a reference point in and to help your own journey ,I have no objections to that, or to learning from you.
My starting balance with BF was £11.81. This was in November 2021
So this month, being my first proper month trading, I have inevitable approached it with a bit of apprehension along the lines of 'What If' things go wrong. I am committed to this totally and loving it.
Now this blog is called LTD which is specifically what its about.You will notice within it there are also Goals Markets. Now this was included as I was testing out strategies linked to the LTD
However LTD is my chosen strategy.
This is the criteria I have chosen at time of this post.
There must a difference in teams.
The home team must have an 80% better chance of winning than the away teamThe Favourite must also have a decent record of scoring in the first half at home
If they don't have a decent record of scoring in the first half, then they must have a good record of scoring goals in the second half. Dependent on the above, depends on if I LTD before Kick Off or enter in play, as long as the match meets my criteria and there is value in the Match Odds
So from December my results
1st
Aris v OFI Greek League Match Odds Profit £1.812nd
Malatyaspor v Akhisir Match Odds Profit £0.64
Same Game Over Under 2.5 Goals Profit £0.40Goztepe v Khata Match Odds Profit £2.34 and also Under 2.5 Goals Profit £0.91
6th
Cardiff U23 V Watford U23 Over Under 2.5 Goals Profit £1.647th
Coventry v Peterborough U23 Match Odds Loss £0.87 this was a game where the goal was scored but on reviewing it, there wasn't much liquidity in the market hence this loss8th
Australian FFA Match (Totally wrong choice)
Sydney v MacArthur Match Odds Loss of £2.40. Entry point was well late, around the 80th minute, and instantly I knew it was wrong, plus it was a cup match and at 90 Minutes both were level so I exitedBayern Munich U19 V Barcelona U19 Match Odds Loss £0.24. Entered the match, then wished I hadn't so exited quickly
Rijeka v Osiek Match Odds Loss of £3.54 entered this match midway through the second half after watching for a around 5 minutes. Was in 2 minds, as no clear favourite and it ended in a draw which was evident from style of play after 5 minutes being in
Wigan v Shrewsbury Match Odds and a league I know well. Profit £2.76
10th December. Added £122 to my BF Trading Account, which was money taken from my Bitcoin Account, to be allocated to my BF account for trading purposes.
11th
Huddersfield v Coventry Match Odds Profit of £2.11
Arsenal v Southampton Match Odds Profit £2.60
14th
Venezia v Ternana Match Odds Profit £1.98
15th
Cagliari v Citadella Coppa Italia Match Odds Profit £2.71 Over Under 2.5 Goals Profit £1.8516th December
Spezia V Lecce Loss £2.4417th
Barnsley v WBA Loss £5.44 Done without any proper pre match research.20th
Fulham v Sheffield United Loss £0.92 The Dog Scored first in this game, and because that happened I cashed out for a loss of profit, but the game finished as LTD so it would have been a winner if I had left it.Lesson learned. When the dog scored I didn't know what to do, but after watching the Videos in the training, saw where I had gone wrong. That mistake hasn't been repeated so far.
21st
Basakeshir v Giresunspor Loss £0.5622nd
Venezia v Lazio Profit £2.3923rd
Besiktas v Goztepe Profit £1.13This was the first game I did my match package as documented above
Now there will be more experienced traders read this blog and think is that all!
For me, in the last month i have learned loads, and beginning to conquer the 'fear' of losses
Equally, I am protective of bank and that is a factor when choosing my games.
My BF account is growing healthily now, as it grows i Shall trade accordingly through upping stakes.
My very first trade was £5. It is now between £10 and £15 and this was before watching Ryans YouTube video on Focus yesterday.
Since writing that bit above I watched the videos posted by @Private-Coaching-Oliver-Preen to do with Trading and now am limiting myself to 2% of my bank so as to increase it slowly as well as the Mastering Mentality videos by Ryan Carruthers, which states that as long as you are happy too, then your should trade between 2 & 5% of your bank.
Currently I am trading at 2% and am happy with that. But on 10th December, I added £122 to my BF trading bank, which was money I had in my Bitcoin wallet. As Bitcoin is volatile, I took it out and had earmarked it for BF trading so it brought my account up to £250
Lessons Learned from this is that I shall only trade matches where there is live coverage as opposed to the betfair images EG Dangerous Attack!
My entry point is going to be either just before K/O if the stats dictate. If they don't then let the game commence and watch around the first 5 or so minutes, then enter if no goal has been scored, but the stats dictate that a goal looks likely
If No score at Half time then Enter as long as the Odds are good and have value in it, plus the pre match research is favourable
I'm learning the difference in the market points now, which is good.
So I have posted this for accountability to myself, because I am far from a Pro, but learning rapidly and for other newbies who may be in the same situation I am or was when I started out.
I am cautious by nature, but loving trading.I certainly wish I had found it earlier in my life.
31st December
End bank with BF is £254.54 so all in all, taking into account where I was, and where I am now, I am pretty pleased with the results.
January 2022
So having looked at my first trade of 2022, which ended with a loss of profit on my First Game, which is shown on my trading sheet below, I decided to review how I LTD.
After reviewing all the info I have, inluding my own data collected Pre BTC and have read on LTD, including Ryans Betgreen Approach, this is what I concluded and will be applying.
Obviously there has to be a clear favourite.
Flashscore needs to show that there has been a minimum of 3+ Shots On Goal by The favourite
My LTD will now be at HT, depending on if the Value is in the Odds. I will be looking for Odds of 3.5 or just higher, but under 4 at HT.
Optionally if the game is still 0~0 but the stats are showing there are goals in it and the match is on TV at around the 70th Minute then I shall enter then for 2% of bank
The Entry point will then be 2% of Bank. From that point it is a question of waiting for the goal to be scored, or goals if the dog scores first.
This Strat is one I shall be moving forward with, as its one I am happy with.
6th January
Today I experienced my first Loss so to speak. I LTD for the Sassuolo Genoa Game in Serie A, its on my Trading sheet, and entered the game at the 55th Minute, having checked all Pre Game Stats and such like Genoa were the obvious Dog, but incredibly took the lead in the 6th Minute with a lucky back heel. Glad I hadn't entered then.
I waited for Sassuolo to level which eventually came in the 55th minute and thats the way it stayed. I stayed in the trade to the Bitter end, by which time I had gone past my stake cash out limit, but also taking into account how other games like this have gone for me, I thought I would stay in in case Sassuolo scored in the last minute given that they had all the shots and attacking edge.
Lesson Learned from Today(Quite Possibly the hard way) but it is, when laying the draw, to come out at around the 70th Minute or when you are close to your stake money entry point.
So yes disappointed, but not over all disappointed, Lessons learned and onwards to the next one.
7th
So a fair amount of reflection on the loss yesterday and why it happened. Analysed it to the enth degree, then concluded that though the match had a favourite in Sassuolo, perhaps there wasn't enough space between the fave and the dog, so possibly time to review what I do.
This was my conclusion, that for football matches to be won, then a goal/s have to be scored.
The data tells us when this is likely to occur, something which quite possibly I hadn't been paying enough attention to so I spent a good while yesterday analysing goal times and when the first goal is scored by the favourite and over which time period.
Doing this was very useful and helpful. So I chose the Tarpzonspor v Malatayaspor game from the Turkish Super Lig, initially thinking it would be good for LTD, but as it was top v bottom , the draw odds were 5 early on, then rose to 5.6 before KO, so ruling it out.
I then looked at the OV2.5 Gls market where the odds were much better and in keeping with the video strategy here of OV2.5 Gls with entry from 15 mInutes onwards. I chose this market. I entered at 2% bank at 2.2 in the 14th Minute, and blow me down, in the 22nd minute the goal arrived, so i was able to exit with a £1.81 profit on cash out, not a fortune I know, but 36% ROI but I also got the free bet as well for another £1.81.
It vindicated my decision to choose this market for this game.The data certainly helped me with this for sure.
On reflection I may consider moving to the Gls market, simply because though there is not as much profit in the market on 2% Stake of bank at my bank level, it doesn't matter who scores first in the game. Whereas being that Football is unpredictable, and if choosing the LTD market, and the dog scores first, you are then even with stats and data, left wondering if the fave will score, so your trade is in the market potentially longer.
Just some thoughts!
10th
Today I used the filter for choosing FHG for LTD options and am pleased I did. I chose the Fenerbache Game in Turkish Super Lig. absolutely everything pre game wise pointed to them scoring in the first half and even better in the 2nd quarter of the first half, so I placed a £5 trade on LTD at odds of 4.1 then waited for the game to go in play
For some reason, unlike other trades I have previously done, in this game there was no panick from me as the game kicked off and I could see from early action a goal was inevitable, which came in the 28th Minute from a penalty. So it matched up with what the stats said about goals and provided me with a green screen and a free bet, so Boom, happy days.
My BF bank is now back up to £249.90 so just under the £250 mark it was before Xmas.
Reflection
When I have a trade that goes wrong, I stop trading and disect that trade bit by bit, to where It went wrong.
In this case the trade was Sassoulo v Genoa, detailed above and that trade has bugged me. The solution lies in the entry point for me. I go in after Sassuolo had equalised, when my entry point should have been before that, given that they were favourites to win the game, but it ended as a draw.So now I use the filter here at BTC, together with one other site, which has the information I need for Pre Game checking. I have used this combination for paper trading over the weekend and yesterday, covering 6 games in total, of which 1 was properly traded yesterday. The results in each case have been winners of the favourites and spookily enough the goal times, while not to the exact minute have been in the time periods the stats show, which is good as it makes the trade more relaxed and will lead to more winners than losers.
I have created my own filter at BTC which is the FHG / LTD one and my games come from there by and large, now that I have worked out how to use it
11th
So having set up my filter, yesterday I tested it out with Paper Trades to see how accurate it was going to be, or if it needed tweaking slightly
10 games were selected by the filter, from 3 Time Periods
Games I selected to be paper traded were
Forest Green Rovers v Colchester 2-1 with FHG so it would have been a trade out with Profit
Sunderland v Lincoln 1-3, there was a FHG in this game to the Dog, so that would have been a HT trade out for a minus as Lincoln were the Dog who scored. FT 1-3
Reading v Fulham 0-7 FHG for Fulham inside 5 MInutes I think, which would have been a trade out for profit
Two out of 3 wins was not bad and from the selections there was a 60% FHG so thats pretty good.
12th
One thing that can definitely be said to be a winner is the Football Software and creating your own filter.
It took me a while to get my head round how it worked, even after watching the videos, but I did manage to work it out and created my own FHG / LTD one, which so far has worked pretty well.
It has been used today on a game in the Greek Super League PAOK V Panaitolikos which was shown as being a good bet for the fave to score a FHG and also LTD, so that was duly done and the result can be seen on my trading blog.
Using the filter helps remove some 'mental' road blocks for sure, such as knowing that your trade has a limitation on it, by way of Entry point at K/O and exit point regardless of score at HT. Dong this for me has removed a lot of the fear and panic associated with my previous trades, because I am backing my trade up with Good solid stats from using the BTC Software and one other peice of Software which effectively corroborates the info I already have. Results have been good in the time I have used it.
Equally, I have also made a decision today about bank management, which is this.
Currently I am using 2% of my bank, and at time of writing that is £249.90
But after watching Ryans Training videos and reading what a couple of other traders have written about their own bank management, I have decided to do the following.
For Every £50 Increase in Bank, I shall increase my trading stake by 1% this will be up to a maximum of 5%
Where I hit a losing run, which I accept will happen, and bank drops downwards then the reverse will happen in terms of trading, it will drop by 1% for Every £50 drop
However, by careful selection of games, as I used to to but on a more liberal basis and not back up by stats before coming here, then that should continue a steady upward trend.Ideally employing this tactic, will ensure that the bank doesn't get blown.
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@martin said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
@dave-hayes well done, agree red cards can have a huge impact
Thanks Martin and time spent understanding the Filter was definitely worth it.
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29th January Weekend Summary
I didn't do any trading this weekend except on paper with Entry and Exit points using my newly set and organised filter.
With a cross selection of games from across Europe, I picked 7 Games in Total. some were LTD, but where the price was too high on LTD, then I chose the OV 2.5 Goals Market, taking into account the Lay Low, Exit High principle and purely data driven, as I wanted to test the filter
So from my selection of 7 Games. I had 4 positive results, so that was really pleasing.
Sadly the same could not be said of my selections for OV 2.5 on WH games, but in two of her matches, there were sendings off, which would have affected the outcome anyway.
Howver, overall, I am happy to continue trading from today, as I now have a better understanding of what is meant by taking the loss and very definitely, the Lay Low, Exit High is being enforced today, together with the Both Favourites rule for games between the for EG the top two teams in a league, where either side can score first.
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29th January Summary of this week
After doing well with the Melbourne Game and Nottingham Forest, I came completely unstuck with my
Rangers v Livingston choice.
The match itself was a good choice, all the stats dictated so.
The decision making was really poor, despite watching it on BF. I had an entry point pre determined and an exit point too
But I entered too early and stayed in way to late,so suffered a £15 loss
This made me stop completely and re evaluate my thinking on this trade.
The conclusion was, that my the filter I had, showing this game, was set up wrong, because I didn't understand how to use it properly. This in turn made me look at 3 other stats sites which gave me conflicting information and made me make a poor decision.
Consequently
I stopped trading totally and learned how to use the Filter Software properly.
Then I set up a new Filter for OV 1 FHG / LTD, but with the criteria I look at when trading.
I used this last night Friday 28th to Paper trade a Championship game, with definite entry and exit points.
The result would have have been a profit. The goal came in the right time period and for the favourite.
So over all I am now happier and can move forward with renewed confidence.
Knowing how to use the Filter properly, I have set up a seperate Filter for OV 2.5 Goals for my wife to use on WH's Free or 4, using the selections from that filter. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.
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@martin said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
@dave-hayes that's a really good idea
It seems to work, because then your not starting the match blind as such, but have an idea as to what the style of play will be.
Seems to work
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@martin said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
@dave-hayes good work!
Thanks Martin. One of the key things for me is that I am starting to read matches more than I had done and doing this helps me pick an entry point as close to the recommended entry point as I Can get, especially in games like this one where Melbourne were the slight faves.
I try to watch if possible YouTube clips of the teams last match, to get an idea as to how they will play, so that I have an ideas as to my entry point
It works so far
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25th January
I had two selections yesterday
Greek League
Tripolois v Smirnis. Opted against this, despite what the stats showed, as the match was played in Heavy snow.
Blackburn v Middlesborough, paper traded this as stats showed it would be either 1-0 or 2-1 Blackburn
It was 1-0 Blackburn with a goal in 76 Minutes.
This morning, unusually for me, I decided to get involved in a game on my filter
Aussie A League
Melbourne v Sydney
Stats had Melbourne as the slight favourite, not by much but slight favourites.I entered at HT just after Kick Off, with a LTD, because the 1st Half stats showed there would be another goal in the game, which came on 77mins. I could have gone in slightly later than half time, but I cashed out with profit so that was nice.
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24th January Summary of 20th, 21 & 22nd January
20th January
Alanyaspor v Hatayspor : Over/Under 2.5 Goals £2.07 Stake £0.64 ProfitArsenal v Liverpool
OV/1.5 Gls £7 Stake @4.08 Loss £2.46 Cashout on 1st Goal, but VAR disallowed it.
OV / 2.5 Gls £5 Stake @2.25 Odds Cashout £2.25 Profit21st January
Arouca v Benfica OV /UN 1.5 Gls £3 Lay on U 1.5 Gls Profit £0.6622nd January
Leverkusen v Augsberg £7 Lay on OV .1.5 Gls @1.22 Odds Cash Out £1.03 ProfitBournemouth v Hull City
£7 @2.02 Odds Cashout Loss £3.90This was based on a 1st 15 Minute stats on something like 20 shots on goal by Bournemouth, so with an average of 3 Goals per home game, this was put on
Match finished 0~1 To Hull courtesy of a second half goal on 67
In future with Matches going forward, that are on TV, with the exception of a few teams who are guaranteed goals in the first 15 minutes, most teams play a game of cat and mouse so, I shall watch and wait for the signs of a goal, before entering the trade
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19th January Summary
LTD on
Goztepe v Sivasspor, Turkish Super League at 3.3 for £7 Traded out in 10 Minutes for a £2.15 Profit
Trapzonspor v Giresunspor Turkish Super League. On Paper and Stats showed this was a home banker LTD, so layed at 3.25 for £7 (3% of Bank)
Trapzonspor started well, I entered the trade at 15 Minutes. But instead of exiting at HT when it was 0~0, I stayed in for a further 15, based on their fist hafl performance it looked like a goal would come early doors, but didn't. Cashed Out on 60 Mins
Dog then scored first.Trap equalised in stoppage time, then also missed a penalty with the last kick of the game.
So while I had a cashout for £11.00 which felt like a loss at the time, and profit wise it was, overall, I ended up feeling like a winner, because the match ended, how I though it might and was proven right.
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18th January Summary
Selected a few games from my Filter
One being Gaziantep in the Turkish Super Lig. Game should never have started as it was snowing heavily. so I watched it for 10 or 15 mins, before concluding that it might well get abandoned, which it did at Half time
Championship
Fulham v Birmingham. MOs slightly higher than I would have liked, but the stats showed Fulham would win, so I LTD and got out in 10 Mins, with some nice profit. -
@richard-latimer said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
It's totally your call but if there's nothing around I'd just have a day off or take the limited selections. Don't go looking, it will end badly.
Thanks for the advice and I had decided after Mondays episode to stick just with Footy.
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@mark-maguire said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
@dave-hayes have you considered drip staking - I traded the AC Milan game over 2.5 goals - but because I dripped my stake in when the goal came it was green and I traded out. As the experts on here will tell you finding the right way to trade games is up there in importance and your strategy will dictate what that is. Just a thought
Mark, yes I have thought about dripping in stake, but just cautious at the moment, though I will most likely start it, because it makes sense to and to get the best value.
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@dave-hayes said in Dave Hayes - LTD December Results:
@chris-osborne Yes I have Chris. Its footy, but as it was Monday yesterday I had a look to see what else was about. Footy is my main sport.
It's totally your call but if there's nothing around I'd just have a day off or take the limited selections. Don't go looking, it will end badly.
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@dave-hayes have you considered drip staking - I traded the AC Milan game over 2.5 goals - but because I dripped my stake in when the goal came it was green and I traded out. As the experts on here will tell you finding the right way to trade games is up there in importance and your strategy will dictate what that is. Just a thought
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@chris-osborne Yes I have Chris. Its footy, but as it was Monday yesterday I had a look to see what else was about. Footy is my main sport.
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@dave-hayes can I make a suggestion that you focus on one sport initially and not jump around
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18th January
Today I decided to go in to the tennis markets after some small but successful LTF trades.
I LTF Baduso, against Tomljamovic. Baduso was 1.05 and had won the 1st Game 6~4
However the Second Set went badly with Baduso storming to the first 3 sets, so I cashed out for a £0.75p liability
Serie A
AC Milan v Spezia in the 5.30 UK Tine Kick Off
Match Odds were high as Milan more than the favourites, so backed the 0V 2.5 Goals Market at 3% Of Bank for £5. Slow start but eventually the game produced a goal in the 45th Minute scored by Milan.my C/O value at this point was -£1.74.
I was in 2 minds whether to cash out, as the favourite had scored, or leave it run.In play action to that point hadn't indicated a lot of goals, so I cashed out.
As it happened, had I let it run, it would have won as Spezia score twice in the second half!
However, I consoled myself with the fact I am trading and one thing I didn't do, when placing th trade was to check the potential returns, if I had I might not have traded.
