The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan I have been going back through my pace selections that I missed over the holidays and sometimes I question time form, one horse sp 7.0 apparently never traded below 7.4 in-running, lost by half a length!
I’ve had that happen a lot. Horse might not have threatened until too late. Also races with odds on favourites in seem to not move at all as everyone expects the favourite to win. This is spoken by a real saddo who loves to get into why odds don’t or do move.
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@john-folan I have been going back through my pace selections that I missed over the holidays and sometimes I question time form, one horse sp 7.0 apparently never traded below 7.4 in-running, lost by half a length!
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Annoying. It didn’t hit the odds filters but would have dobbed and trobbed from 6.0 upwards. I really want to look at these 3/4 class races properly.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
I doubt todays DobTrobEin(DTW) will hit the odds filter of 3.5-9
13:00 Chepstow The Lion Dancer
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Dobbed and trobbed for two points total profit. The win didnt happen
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One today. Yesterday was sadly a bust
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Finally a trade! Currently within the 3.5-9 odds range
Interestingly these would have made you 66 points in total last year
Dobs 6
Trobs 25
Win 34.Slower than prior to the pandemic but crowds weren’t allowed at races for half a year so no on site bookies and traders moving prices, plus it must have affected the standard of racing. Would expect these to do better this year. I will be able to get them out of the horse trading software. I will continue if they pull different selections to the pace trobs.
Also got my eye on doing something around the forecast price. I’ve noticed horses that are less than their forecast price tend to run well and those that are above tend to run worse. Again this can be simulated in the horse racing software. I’m quite excited about this as I think there’s a bit of untapped gold here. Hopefully the next update to the software after Adam has had the whole database restructured(he’s a clever chap), will enable me to get selections daily so we can watch what happens going forwards as well as backtesting.
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Still nothing. Looking forward to the software now. Got a dob/trob/win strategy and it would seem a lay strategy ready to go. Adam doing a mega update soon so will see where we are after that.
I've stripped back everything I do now. I am~
Scalping.
Lay to backs
My Dob/Trob/Wins(will probably kibosh these once the software is up as the new ones provide a lot more selections and the same rates of return).I'll add in the lay I've mentioned above then see what else I can add to move away from manual trading and fully over to set and forget and automated. I'm quite happy taking on other peoples strategies as well if they look juicy :). But for now that will do me.
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No trobs from me today
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@anthony-ariss sweet wasn’t it?
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@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
One for pace testing today 60% dob and 40% trob percentage, I am concerned it hasn't won at course or distance though.
La Roca Del Fuego Lingfield AW 6f 1:05 PM
Wow!
Nice little earner! Backed at 60 out at 20 - think it went as low as 1.4?
wowser! 43.56 into 2.16
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
One for pace testing today 60% dob and 40% trob percentage, I am concerned it hasn't won at course or distance though.
La Roca Del Fuego Lingfield AW 6f 1:05 PM
Wow!
Nice little earner! Backed at 60 out at 20 - think it went as low as 1.4?
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Nothing again. Usual Monday
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No set and forgets from me today.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald what's your general strategy with it? sounds promising!
I will generally look at the fave and watch the ladder for a few mins and get a feel for how the market is moving. This has taken me I would say about 18 months of practice to get a good feel. If it is above evens I will look for opportunity to back where I’m confident I can get lay in for 1-2 ticks (normally one but if it’s bouncing a bit consistently I’ll go for 2). If it trading under evens I’ll do the same for lay. I’ll rinse and repeat until about 7 mins out.
The other thing I do look for is non faves that have disproportionate share of the $$’s going their way early. Generally a good sign they will steam as long as it wasn’t a chunk laid at lower price.
Where I let myself down is not cutting it off when it goes against me and waiting/hoping for it to come back. I’m normally good but I have the odd brain explosion and sometimes make the cardinal sin of convincing myself I’ll get it back in running which as I’m making this decision I’m telling myself this is just dumb dumb dumb. I’m determined to take my medicine and exit for a loss when it moves the wrong way against what I anticipated. Should be easy right?!? Discipline, discipline discipline
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald I’ve been treating this as an experiment to uncover why I lose and to control how I respond. I’d definitely recommend you do something similar if you can.
Something I’ve noticed is I would have a good day but near the end lose it. I think the reason is that I can see there’s fewer races so want to make the most of what is left, or I’m just being greedy. I also know by the evening I’m not as alert as the afternoon. From now onwards I will set myself a curfew to walk away when I’m happy. That also reinforces that it’s my decision to end the day.
Good move this. Or depending on your style line up your races in the morning? I identify anything with a short odds favourite(my favourite scalp), then I line up the lay to backs and I only hit those races. I rarely bother with the evening races. I think they trade differently.
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@sean-fitzgerald I’ve been treating this as an experiment to uncover why I lose and to control how I respond. I’d definitely recommend you do something similar if you can.
Something I’ve noticed is I would have a good day but near the end lose it. I think the reason is that I can see there’s fewer races so want to make the most of what is left, or I’m just being greedy. I also know by the evening I’m not as alert as the afternoon. From now onwards I will set myself a curfew to walk away when I’m happy. That also reinforces that it’s my decision to end the day.
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@sean-fitzgerald what's your general strategy with it? sounds promising!
