The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@dave-hayes Along similar lines I’ve done some analysis of my own O1.5 goal filter and perhaps unsurprisingly if there is a goal in the first half the SR of winning the trade is 92 percent. If the game is 0-0 at HT the SR is 47 percent. That is over a sample size of over 600 games. I expected a jump but not to those extremes. Has made me add another stat to my filter (percentage of games with O0.5 goals in first half) and will track this to see if there is a threshold or trend I can use that leads to a better long term return
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@mick-mcmahon Keith experience is invaluable for definite. If it helps and I am far from Pro on this, but just what I have learned since being here and to Coin Keiths "Want it ove long before" expression, I have paper traded dozens of games in the LTD/ Match Odds market and found the trade I am most comfortable with is the the one where the favourite has a good record of scoring first in the first half, that way it eliminates the need for that SHG.
As keith says and possibly we all do there is an element of 'panic', will it won't it happen, but I found setting myself up a filter works nicely and I back that up with other Pre Game Stats to confirm my own thinking.
So far it has worked well and certainly before coming to BTC, i would never have done that at all, so all the info absorbed here pays off for sure
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@keith-anderson even more intrigued now. I know managers tactically use space.. creating it/exploiting it to get chances.
One of the best I know at the moment bases his whole approach on the wing backs getting high and having the centre backs mobile enough to step into the space created which creates the platform for very attacking play.
On the opposite side I went to a lower league game on Saturday where I know the young manager, and I was so frustrated because his team were set up to go down the sides but they kept getting so narrow there was no space for anyone and the game was just stifled.
Perhaps this is the type of thing within games which leads to space as you describe it, but how to measure it is a different matter as you say
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@keith-anderson Doing something simliar i use betdaq for this and betfair my stuff. think it helps knowing two seperate
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@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
3% Club - Day 6
Opening Balance: £130.30
Day 6 Target: £119.38
As you can see we are above the target for the day. Again, no need to push things. Today is actually about you. Today is a day were I am asking you to take responsibility. Below are my picks for tonight. There are 4 matches, if you do both the 1.5's and the SHG that is 8 trades.
All these matches kick-off around the same time. This means that all you liability is locked up in this moment. That's okay if we have a good night. If we don't we lose five days worth of profit and possibly more. I'm conscious that for the newbie that could be devastating. There are several ways to play this:
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Do Everything (Lay Under 1.5's & SHG) - Remember no need to push it. Try and eliminate Fear of Missing Out
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Do 1.5's only
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Do SHG only
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Do nothing (Remember we're above target)
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Something else (Pick 1 or 2 trades)
This really is up to you. You'll find out what I choose at the end of the night. I don't want to sway your thought.
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Southampton v Brentford
19:45 - Cagliari v Bologna
19:45 - Sunderland v Lincoln
20:00 - Reading v FulhamBehatzlaha!
Cheers keith helping me build up my betdaq account up doing this is a bit of fun ill just be doing Set and forget and doing overs, Cheers though
I use Betdaq for my 1.5's and Betfair for my SHG. I don't know about anyone else, but I find it helpful having separate banks for my different strategies
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Interesting. I think I'm half decent at reading a game. And certainly various things that happen which say goals are or aren't going to happen. I'm interested what you mean by space? As in attacking team being given plenty of it.. like Villa last night (how didnt they score). ?
That's the problem, I don't really know how to explain it! I know it when I see it!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
3% Club - Day 6
Opening Balance: £130.30
Day 6 Target: £119.38
As you can see we are above the target for the day. Again, no need to push things. Today is actually about you. Today is a day were I am asking you to take responsibility. Below are my picks for tonight. There are 4 matches, if you do both the 1.5's and the SHG that is 8 trades.
All these matches kick-off around the same time. This means that all you liability is locked up in this moment. That's okay if we have a good night. If we don't we lose five days worth of profit and possibly more. I'm conscious that for the newbie that could be devastating. There are several ways to play this:
-
Do Everything (Lay Under 1.5's & SHG) - Remember no need to push it. Try and eliminate Fear of Missing Out
-
Do 1.5's only
-
Do SHG only
-
Do nothing (Remember we're above target)
-
Something else (Pick 1 or 2 trades)
This really is up to you. You'll find out what I choose at the end of the night. I don't want to sway your thought.
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Southampton v Brentford
19:45 - Cagliari v Bologna
19:45 - Sunderland v Lincoln
20:00 - Reading v FulhamBehatzlaha!
Cheers keith helping me build up my betdaq account up doing this is a bit of fun ill just be doing Set and forget and doing overs, Cheers though
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
3% Club - Day 6
Opening Balance: £130.30
Day 6 Target: £119.38
As you can see we are above the target for the day. Again, no need to push things. Today is actually about you. Today is a day were I am asking you to take responsibility. Below are my picks for tonight. There are 4 matches, if you do both the 1.5's and the SHG that is 8 trades.
All these matches kick-off around the same time. This means that all you liability is locked up in this moment. That's okay if we have a good night. If we don't we lose five days worth of profit and possibly more. I'm conscious that for the newbie that could be devastating. There are several ways to play this:
-
Do Everything (Lay Under 1.5's & SHG) - Remember no need to push it. Try and eliminate Fear of Missing Out
-
Do 1.5's only
-
Do SHG only
-
Do nothing (Remember we're above target)
-
Something else (Pick 1 or 2 trades)
This really is up to you. You'll find out what I choose at the end of the night. I don't want to sway your thought.
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Southampton v Brentford
19:45 - Cagliari v Bologna
19:45 - Sunderland v Lincoln
20:00 - Reading v FulhamBehatzlaha!
I'm taking the easy way out and doing them all lol.
I know they are solid, I've been doing them since November and tracking them. The 1.5 are outperforming th SHG. Sometimes I don't do the SHG depends.
Thanks for sharing these and all your hard work
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Ive picked 2 -Cagliari and Sunderland , mainly based on value and Lay 1.5 only. (and the fact that Sunderland seem to be scoring goals for fun recently)
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@keith-anderson Interesting. I think I'm half decent at reading a game. And certainly various things that happen which say goals are or aren't going to happen. I'm interested what you mean by space? As in attacking team being given plenty of it.. like Villa last night (how didnt they score). ?
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Anyone else good at reading the game?
When I watch a match I can normally predict correctly if a goal is going to be scored (without stats / odds) just by reading the play. What I'm not very good at is predicting which team is going to score!! I wish I could because it would increase my bankroll!
I don't why I can do it, probably because I've been watching a lot of football since I was a child. Tempo plays a big part, but a high tempo of an English Premier League match is different from a high tempo La Liga match; so you have to adjust accordingly.
While tempo, crowds, and quality of players help, there is another thing I look for. Space. Space is my most important factor when trying to predict a goal. The problem I have is, how do I quantify it?
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Thanks Keith. Fort you SHG, do you back or lay then next over/under?
I lay
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@keith-anderson Thanks Keith. Fort you SHG, do you back or lay then next over/under?
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Can I ask - So far I thought you saying expect a SHG was more a "don't panic if 0-0 at half time" sort of sentiment
How (and when) do you do your SHG?
And thanks for doing this - this sort of stuff is invaluable.
I do panic!! I generally do expect a SHG on the games I post. Even if it is 0-0 at HT, I find if you get a goal before 65 minutes then you tend to get a second goal. Of course I want it done and dusted long before that.
I tend to do a SHG at HT. I try not to go above 5.0, but if I'm watching the game and feel there is a goal then I could go higher. The Koln match was a great example of this on Sunday. Every time they came forward it looked like they were going to score
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@keith-anderson loving this Keith. Thank you for taking the time on it
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@keith-anderson Can I ask - So far I thought you saying expect a SHG was more a "don't panic if 0-0 at half time" sort of sentiment
How (and when) do you do your SHG?
And thanks for doing this - this sort of stuff is invaluable.
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3% Club - Day 6
Opening Balance: £130.30
Day 6 Target: £119.38
As you can see we are above the target for the day. Again, no need to push things. Today is actually about you. Today is a day were I am asking you to take responsibility. Below are my picks for tonight. There are 4 matches, if you do both the 1.5's and the SHG that is 8 trades.
All these matches kick-off around the same time. This means that all you liability is locked up in this moment. That's okay if we have a good night. If we don't we lose five days worth of profit and possibly more. I'm conscious that for the newbie that could be devastating. There are several ways to play this:
-
Do Everything (Lay Under 1.5's & SHG) - Remember no need to push it. Try and eliminate Fear of Missing Out
-
Do 1.5's only
-
Do SHG only
-
Do nothing (Remember we're above target)
-
Something else (Pick 1 or 2 trades)
This really is up to you. You'll find out what I choose at the end of the night. I don't want to sway your thought.
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Southampton v Brentford
19:45 - Cagliari v Bologna
19:45 - Sunderland v Lincoln
20:00 - Reading v FulhamBehatzlaha!
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Not much doing today. The Leicester game came up on filters but is off.
Left with Southampton Brentford which came up on the weakest of my filters and stats are against:
O2.5 25% (4.54) O1.5 53% (2.02) and FHG 75% 1.44 I think Brentford are too high at 3.8 (more like 3.2) Projected score of 1-1.
But realistically I'm likely to sit this out unless inplay stats get interesting
On Over 1.5 Filter I have Cagliari vs Bologna but again % not great 77% (1.44) one to monitor inplay stats before trading if at all.
May be a day off .
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@mark-maguire Nice one Mark I had the Fenerbache game on LTD, and traded out on 28 Mins. Surprisingly they also lost
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Cardiff Met and Barry tomorrow!!!! One for the ages I'm sure.....
Nope, it's cancelled. Nothing then....
