The BTC Football Trading Thread

Dan MacKinnon

HT Millwall vs Palace LCS @ 4

Probably more of a fan bet than a trade but Palace to win @ 5. Number of times we've come back from being behind at HT and Millwall seem happy to defend.

Richard Latimer

LCS Wycombe @ HT

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I'll be trading in the Correct Score market in the following match today;

Frankfurt v Dortmund

I'll be dutching the following target scorelines for 0.1pts

3-1, 2-2 & 1-3

I will lay u2.5 goals in Frankfurt match to cover red

Total liability circa 0.25pts

Mark Maguire

@keith-anderson Keith generally speaking what’s your attitude to local derbies /big rivalries - previously I’ve been a bit wary of these going against the stats because there’s so much at stake ? Or do you see no significant difference

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Melbourne victory v Adelaide United. The lay of under 1.5 goals is value at 4.7.

There’s a rivalry between these two clubs

That old adage...'Goals change games'

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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Never in doubt!!

Well done

Akiva Anderson

Never in doubt!!

Alastair Todd

@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson You can stand easy now... Looks like double bubble???

As Borat would say: "wa wa we woo!"

Oops, no he wouldn't.....

0_1641638205593_5c15d9e9-4eb6-468e-b319-7e1ea79ffa9c-image.png

Alastair Todd

@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson You can stand easy now... Looks like double bubble???

As Borat would say: "wa wa we woo!"

Oops, no he wouldn't.....

Alastair Todd

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson You can stand easy now... Looks like double bubble???

As Borat would say: "wa wa we woo!"

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@keith-anderson You can stand easy now, scratch... Looks like double bubble???

Edit just seen the replay

Martin Walker

@keith-anderson i havnt checked i took 1.26 last night as i saw that as value but now see its really good value for them

Mark Maguire

So a selection of todays 02.5 looking for earlyish goal, out by 60 mins, split stakes.

On the filter I have

Leipzig
Oldham
Accrington
Newport
Estoril
Wycombe

Stats wise :

Leipzig O2.5 57% (1.9) 01.5 80% (1.3) FHG 91% (1.18)
Score 2-1. My odds say RB should be 1.56 .. some form stats against RB bit will trade cautiously based on FHG and Home Odds .. small stakes initially then follow in play.

Oldham O2.5 67% (1.61) 01.5 87% (1.24) FHG 90% (1.19)
Score 1-2 Odds say Sutton should be 1.93 (currently 2.25) so maybe value in them. Will trade based on FHG and O1.5 odds but monitor in play as Oldham had recent 0-0

Accrington O2.5 72% (1.5) 01.5 90% (1.2) FHGG 92% 1.17
Score 2-3 Odds say MKD should be 1.9 (vs 2.4) slight concern is away favourite at highish odds other than that signals trade aggressively but based on those odds will go drip stakes but monitor inlay for 3rd and 4th drip. May also trade correct score

Newport O2.5 58% (1.85) O1.5 82% (1.32) FHG 96% (1.13)
Score 2-1 Odds say home should be 1.77 (vs 2.1) Based on value of home odds and FHG will trade this strongly to start but caution on 3rd and 4th drip.

Estoril O2.5 52% (2.07) O1.5 77% (1.4) FHG 87% (1.24)
Score 1-2 - theres something in Relative Performance stat along with previous experience that when away team are such strong favourites (odds are 17 and 1.14) that means I'll be really cautious on this one, with away fav so strong Ive found Home set up defensively and the other stats aren't exciting to match the starting odds.

Wycombe O2.5 59% (1.2) 01.5 81% (1.3) FHG 91% 1.18
Score 2-2 Will trade correct score, worried about odds - no clear fav, FHG and OK odds on O1.5 mean I will start with small stakes and monitor

In addition I have a left field Turkish Lig 1 match .. Umraniyespor strong home odds and 93% FHG so will trade that slowly (based on the league being unreliable)

On 01.5 games I have

Leverkusen 88% (1.23) will trade this
Leipzig 80% (1.34) - good home odds but form concerns so cautious staking
Frankfurt 76% (1.42) - not great % and weak away fav so will wait for inplay stats and value

Sorry if these posts take up too much space

Akiva Anderson

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Over 1.5
Frieburg
RB Leipzig
Real sociedad
Galatasaray
Possibly more later

SHG melbourne

Leipzig price is good value. I assume they have players missing?

Martin Walker

Over 1.5
Frieburg
RB Leipzig
Real sociedad
Galatasaray
Possibly more later

SHG melbourne

DJ Reid

@keith-anderson Do you stake your 1.5 and your SHG the same?

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Melbourne victory v Adelaide United. The lay of under 1.5 goals is value at 4.7.

There’s a rivalry between these two clubs

Tempo isn’t bad, not great, but there’s plenty of space.

Have also layed under 0.5 goals at 4.1

Ryan

Looks even more tasty as I've just seen it and now we have some mins played @keith-anderson

DJ Reid

Cheers @keith-anderson that makes sense

Akiva Anderson

Melbourne victory v Adelaide United. The lay of under 1.5 goals is value at 4.7.

There’s a rivalry between these two clubs