The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bad night for the 3% club. Back tomorrow
Hey mate for this you just doing o1.5 not shg just on the note didn't do shg for today
No, I didn't do a SHG tonight (thankfully). Just the Under 1.5 goals lay
I thought you did SHG for all your 1.5? Was their any particular reason for not tonight or just couldn't get on?
Once I knew there were no supporters in the stadium, then I wasn’t prepared to risk it.
I got on the 1.5 at 4.9 and it was 5.7 before kick-off. The market expected goals, so I just let the 1.5 run it’s course.
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Hopefully get a few. This month is stagnant right now!
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Another bad day for me, Amorebieta v Tenerife ended 1-1.
Overall Trades
Trades 8
W 5
SR 62.50
P/L -£2.20
Points -0.75
Average Stake £2.92 -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bad night for the 3% club. Back tomorrow
Hey mate for this you just doing o1.5 not shg just on the note didn't do shg for today
No, I didn't do a SHG tonight (thankfully). Just the Under 1.5 goals lay
I thought you did SHG for all your 1.5? Was their any particular reason for not tonight or just couldn't get on?
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le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bad night for the 3% club. Back tomorrow
Hey mate for this you just doing o1.5 not shg just on the note didn't do shg for today
No, I didn't do a SHG tonight (thankfully). Just the Under 1.5 goals lay
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bad night for the 3% club. Back tomorrow
Hey mate for this you just doing o1.5 not shg just on the note didn't do shg for today
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Bad night for the 3% club. Back tomorrow
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
20:00 - Bordeaux v Marseille
Thanks for this Keith. Are you laying about £4 on this? And do you let it run or get out at some point?
Doh!!! Got caught up and forgot to lay the bet. Was going to do it this morning but thought I'd wait closer to kick off...
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@Martin thanks Martin - trying to be more disciplined on days where there are only one or two trades available, previously been tempted to trade just because I want to be doing something and they almost always end being a disaster
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@mark-maguire excellent!
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Another dead day. Likely a goal in Roda but it doesn't qualify and so moving on to tomorrow.
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plus 1 point
Helmond first half was very quiet so went with my automatic first two split stakes - then held off - By HT only one SOT for each team, then it got lively and first ten mins of second half went to 3 SOT each so I dripped in two more. Goal on 59 minutes and as it was so lively I thought I'd let it run and happy days with a goal 3 mins later. Traded out for Green.
Had a small stake and return on Bayern as I felt there would be goals still, great information from @stuart-wallace re team news meant I was conservative (two goal scorers from last match missing) but still a little green is ok.
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@stuart-wallace Thanks for the heads up mate
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cant remember who posted it but could somone send me the link to keiths 3% thing from the first time round sure was a link to the orginal post on the forum cheers
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
So todays picks for me (Over 2.5 - looking for earlyish goal and out by 60 mins)
Bayern vs B Mönchengladbach (unsurprisingly)
Helmond vs DordrechtIn terms of approach, Bayern is green all the way : O2.5 73% (1.46), 01.5 90%(1.19) FHG 98% (1.10)
Projected score of 4-0 and by my maths Borussia should be at 27 (Bayern at 1.29) Currently 1.36 and 7So I will in principle trade aggressively but the odds will be against decent returns, so I may hold back for a bit of value, trade the first half goal market - odds may send me to over 1,5 FHG to trade out. And trade the scoreline at 4-0 (v small stakes) If away goal Bayern always good for a come back trade.
This also comes up as an O1.5 trade but odds may prevent me doing this unless its a slow start.
Helmond - I think we are dealing with two poor teams and caution because I think the home odds should be higher ( 2.02 vs 1.9) Both teams concede plenty of goals.
Stats on my model are O2.5 51% (2.11) 0 1.5 77% (1.4) FHG 91% 1.18
Projected scored 2-1
So will cautiously trade based on both teams ability to concede and the high FHG percentage, but third and fourth drip will depend on in play stats.
Yesterday ended with decent green. Overall +2 points - Lazio over 1.5, early goals and green up for Sassulo and Samp and just had a decent day with Samp because the gap between 1st and 2nd goal combined with in play stats sent me back in using some of the green to trade the overs again, then after another goal I traded LTD - albeit I didn't expect the goal to come from Cagliari so asking myself whether the LTD was a good or bad trade (but I was using green)
Hi Mark,
This game comes out highest on my filter too, so i contacted my mate who is a BMG fan, and he tells me Bayern have 9 players out due to Covid. -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
20:00 - Bordeaux v Marseille
Thanks for this Keith. Are you laying about £4 on this? And do you let it run or get out at some point?
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@andy-donnelly yeah precisely so totally up to you but don't see any point in having 20 game filter with current season only.
