The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Nothing again. Usual Monday

John Folan

No set and forgets from me today.

Sean Fitzgerald

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@sean-fitzgerald what's your general strategy with it? sounds promising!

I will generally look at the fave and watch the ladder for a few mins and get a feel for how the market is moving. This has taken me I would say about 18 months of practice to get a good feel. If it is above evens I will look for opportunity to back where I’m confident I can get lay in for 1-2 ticks (normally one but if it’s bouncing a bit consistently I’ll go for 2). If it trading under evens I’ll do the same for lay. I’ll rinse and repeat until about 7 mins out.

The other thing I do look for is non faves that have disproportionate share of the $$’s going their way early. Generally a good sign they will steam as long as it wasn’t a chunk laid at lower price.

Where I let myself down is not cutting it off when it goes against me and waiting/hoping for it to come back. I’m normally good but I have the odd brain explosion and sometimes make the cardinal sin of convincing myself I’ll get it back in running which as I’m making this decision I’m telling myself this is just dumb dumb dumb. I’m determined to take my medicine and exit for a loss when it moves the wrong way against what I anticipated. Should be easy right?!? Discipline, discipline discipline

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@sean-fitzgerald I’ve been treating this as an experiment to uncover why I lose and to control how I respond. I’d definitely recommend you do something similar if you can.

Something I’ve noticed is I would have a good day but near the end lose it. I think the reason is that I can see there’s fewer races so want to make the most of what is left, or I’m just being greedy. I also know by the evening I’m not as alert as the afternoon. From now onwards I will set myself a curfew to walk away when I’m happy. That also reinforces that it’s my decision to end the day.

Good move this. Or depending on your style line up your races in the morning? I identify anything with a short odds favourite(my favourite scalp), then I line up the lay to backs and I only hit those races. I rarely bother with the evening races. I think they trade differently.

Dan MacKinnon

@sean-fitzgerald I’ve been treating this as an experiment to uncover why I lose and to control how I respond. I’d definitely recommend you do something similar if you can.

Something I’ve noticed is I would have a good day but near the end lose it. I think the reason is that I can see there’s fewer races so want to make the most of what is left, or I’m just being greedy. I also know by the evening I’m not as alert as the afternoon. From now onwards I will set myself a curfew to walk away when I’m happy. That also reinforces that it’s my decision to end the day.

Martin

@sean-fitzgerald what's your general strategy with it? sounds promising!

Sean Fitzgerald

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Inspired by Keith's 3% and impatient for my filter data to collect, I'm going to try my own scalping challenge. I know if I follow the rules I can make it work. It's also a mental challenge for me as scalping was what caused me to do the rage trade and end up with a broken hand!

My aim is to only use £2 stake on a back first basis (so the most I will risk is £2) and collect 33p each day. After 30 days I should have a whopping £10. It's going to be a challenge to not overtrade, keep focus and not get too emotional, but if I can overcome those I'll feel more confident as a trader.

I can relate to this so well. I do so well with Horse scalping and then blow it all be being ill disciplined. I’ve re-commenced at start of Jan and am determined to prove I can do it for 3 months without breaking my rules. I don’t have an issue with discipline on other sports it’s just horse scalping. This is my last chance to make it work

Martin

@john-folan well done mate!

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Todays. 3.5-9 as usual

Dob + 1
Trob + 2
Win - 1

John Folan

Todays. 3.5-9 as usual

Martin

@dan-mackinnon nice one keep us updated

Dan MacKinnon

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

From my experience of pre-race scalping (and I'm happy to be corrected) you can use Ryan's 1 tick recycle on the horses.

Same method as the football. Look for a horse that has had steady odds for a while and similar money either side. Back and lay either side, wait for them both to get matched and take the 1 tick. As with any scalping on any sport I would recommend software to get a better picture of what's going on. I would also suggest looking around 20-25 minutes from the race starting and getting out around 15 minutes before. After that you start getting more traders and the prices can move more than you want.

Final pointers

Don't be greedy / Don't overtrade (my downfall)

If it moves against you get out for a scratch or 1 tick loss. There will be plenty of opportunities. Don't sit there waiting for it to recover (another of my failings!)

@John-Folan has given me lots of valuable advice, one of which is "start with minimum stakes because you'll only risking a few pennies"

Thought I'd share this for anyone that had considered scalping horse racing but not sure where to start.

great idea this! keep us updated with how it goes

Inspired by Keith's 3% and impatient for my filter data to collect, I'm going to try my own scalping challenge. I know if I follow the rules I can make it work. It's also a mental challenge for me as scalping was what caused me to do the rage trade and end up with a broken hand!

My aim is to only use £2 stake on a back first basis (so the most I will risk is £2) and collect 33p each day. After 30 days I should have a whopping £10. It's going to be a challenge to not overtrade, keep focus and not get too emotional, but if I can overcome those I'll feel more confident as a trader.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

One potential today. 3.5-9 as per usual.

Pulled up. Annoying

John Folan

@Martin Here you go mate.

so 70% trob rate.
minimum 5 runs
the pace value actually works better if you use it for this race alone and ignore the last three runs part.(So pace score for this particular race.
Works on all surfaces and disciplines. Just need Adam to update the software so I can test it properly. Dobs, Trobs and Wins are ALL profitable though.

John Folan

@martin 70% Trob rate. Let me screenshot you the stuff I fed into the strategy builder

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Pace testing today:

6th January

Spartan Fighter Newcastle AW 7f 2.35PM
Healing Power Chelmsford City AW 1m 4:00 PM
Kraka Chelmsford City AW 7f 6:00 PM

All three finished last

@John-Folan potential trend I'm noticing is that course and distance wins matter

Also look at Dob/Trob rate. . Combined with pace it looks mental.

what percentages are you looking at on those only just seen them on the cards

John Folan

One potential today. 3.5-9 as per usual.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan it's a real man who can cry. I'd be the same haha!

John Folan

@richard-latimer Thanks mate. I still can’t quite believe it. I was blubbing like a baby when he told me

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-terracciano happily no cancer. Thanks for the kind thoughts. I honestly thought he was done as the vet was convinced that’s what it was. They still have no idea what caused it and I’m not poking the bear anymore until I have to. He’s back to himself which I really wasn’t expecting. Happy New Year mate.

Always late with the updates but well chuffed for you and the dog John!