MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
Hi Darri happy new year mate , i feel like Stuarts set and forget is turning into profitability after a couple of poor months , my own set and forget i see exactly what you are seeing mate , i am going to analyse the data on this as plenty of results to go through, just seems loads of work recording to just ditch. i have started to go through yesterday evening and will continue the next few days for instance Australia i have noticed is a league to scrap, will post once i have made a decision.
Don't ditch, just don't trade it currently. Keep tracking until you feel you can't track anymore or it's simply not worth it. You never know, but you may see an entirely new pattern unfold before your eyes that you hadn't been looking for and certainly weren't expecting.
When I was loooking at multi angles for inplay 2nd half goals based on when a team scored and what the score was at the time etc I wasn't aware just how much priceless data I was collecting for a simple 2nd half goal. Without that base I wouldn't have anywhere near as much to build on as I have now.
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Potential trades for today Sunday 2nd of Jan
Stuarts set and forget - No trades
My own set and forget
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Valladoid vs Leganes
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Almeria vs Cartagena
14.00 England Champ - Birmingham vs QPR
15.00 England Nat Prem- Woking vs Aldershot
15.00 England Nat North- Boston Utd vs Alfreton
15.00 Scotland L2- Stranraer vs AnnanLay the underdog if they take the lead
15.00 Scotland Champ- Raith vs Dunfermline ( lay away)
15.00 Scotland L2- Kelty Hearts vs Cowdenbeath ( lay away)
15.00 England Nat North - Kettering vs Brackley ( lay home) -
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
Hi Darri happy new year mate , i feel like Stuarts set and forget is turning into profitability after a couple of poor months , my own set and forget i see exactly what you are seeing mate , i am going to analyse the data on this as plenty of results to go through, just seems loads of work recording to just ditch. i have started to go through yesterday evening and will continue the next few days for instance Australia i have noticed is a league to scrap, will post once i have made a decision.
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@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
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@stuart-capstick Cheers Stuart nice to be back again, i want to be more part of the community on here from now on. Hope you are all good mate?
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Hi James.
Great to see you back.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I will be updating far more regularly on this blog to keep myself disciplined and if others have any constructive ideas your input will be greatly appreciated. Discipline and bank management is key to making this work and hopefully this is the year it finally can take off
Trades for today from my filters
Stuarts Set and forget ltd
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City - Won £1.13 (1-2 FT)
15.00pm Eng Prem- Watford vs Spurs Won £0.92 ( 0-1 FT)
My own set and forget ltd
15.00pm Eng Ismithian Prem- Worthing vs Horsham Won £1.03( FT 3-1)
15.00pm Northern Ire Prem- Ballymena vs Portadown ( Didn't get matched would have won ft 4-0)Lay the Underdog if they take the lead
15.00pm England L1- MK Dons (7th) vs Gillingham (23/24) lay away ( NO TRADE 0-0 FT)
15.00pm England L1- Oxford Utd (5th) vs Cheltenham (14/22) lay away (WON £3.86 0-1 ON 48 , EQUQ 82ND)
15.00pm England L1- Rotherham ( 2nd) vs Bolton ( 15/24) lay away ( NO TRADE 2-1 FT)A good start my new journey but was lucky with two injury time goals, just got to make sure i accept the bad days when they come.
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City - Won £1.13 (1-2 FT)
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@chris-osborne Hi Chris , the laying of the underdog system the big profits occur if you have a late goal scored by the underdog and the favourite equalizes, if you can get 1 or 2 a month it boosts the profit on the system.
I am going to be a geek tonight and spend the evening going through all of the data to breakdown leagues /teams odds ranges etc and will let you know mate.
Hows things with you mate hope you have had a nice Christmas and new year? -
I will be updating far more regularly on this blog to keep myself disciplined and if others have any constructive ideas your input will be greatly appreciated. Discipline and bank management is key to making this work and hopefully this is the year it finally can take off
Trades for today from my filters
Stuarts Set and forget ltd
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City
15.00pm Eng Prem- Watford vs Spurs
My own set and forget ltd
15.00pm Eng Ismithian Prem- Worthing vs Horsham
15.00pm Northern Ire Prem- Ballymena vs PortadownLay the Underdog if they take the lead
15.00pm England L1- MK Dons (7th) vs Gillingham (23/24) lay away
15.00pm England L1- Oxford Utd (5th) vs Cheltenham (14/22) lay away
15.00pm England L1- Rotherham ( 2nd) vs Bolton ( 15/24) lay away - 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City
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So the big day has finally arrived my start of trading properly , after completing my spreadsheet of results i have a bank of £178.32 , so will be using 2% liability stakes which i think i have worked out correctly is £3.57 liability stakes per trade.
I will be working off these three strategies i have been logging the results for although system 2 my own ltd hasn't been making profit the last couple of months i am not losing hardly anything but i will be examining the data i have over the weekend of this system to omit leagues and find the odds ranges that are profitable.
The other two systems appear to making reasonable profit so will carry on with (again will look into the data to see if i can tweak at all to make more profit -
@james-everard Results speak for them selves James the third strategy looks by far the most profitable to me - Are the results coming from one or two leagues or spread about
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@james-everard Morning all happy new year to all.
I have updated my results below on my spreadsheet for November and December see below, these were based on £2 test minimum liability stakes
November - System 1 - Stuarts Set and forget Ltd
Trades 29, won 27, lost 2, s/rate 93.10% , monthly profit £11.00
Total trades for this system end of Nov - Trades 475, won 376, lost 99, s/rate 79% , profit £18.68System 2 - My Own set and Forget Ltd at Kick Off
November Trades 94,won 68, lost 26 , s/rate 72.34%, Monthly loss of £2.26
Total trades for this System end of November- Trades 858,won 656, lost 202, s/rate 76% ,profit £53.41System 3- Laying the Underdog if they take the lead
Trades for November 24, won 11, lost 13, s/rate 45.83% , Monthly profit £19.90
Trades for this system end of November - Trades 112,won 62, lost 50, s/rate 55% total profit £101.80Then the December trades below
System 1 - Stuarts Set and Forget Ltd at k/o
Trades for Dec 45, won 40,lost 5, s/rate 88.88%, monthly profit £12.11
Trades for this system by end of Dec- Trades 520,won 416, lost 104, s/rate 80% profit £30.79System 2- My Own set and forget Ltd at k/o
Trades for Dec 87, won 64,lost 20,s/rate 77.01% monthly loss of £1.17
Total trades for this system end Of Dec- 945, won 720,lost 222, s/rate 76% , total profit to date £52.24System 3- Lay the Underdog if they take the lead
Trades for Dec - 13, won 12 , lost 1, s/rate 92.31% monthly profit £22.25
Total trades for this system 125, won 74, lost 51, s/rate 59%, Total profit to date £124.05 -
@james-everard Perfect, will be watching with a keen eye.
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Quick update , i was going to start trading my lay the underdog system from this weekend. But i have decided to delay until the 1st of December. Going to catch up with results recording and analyse some data . take a break for a couple of weeks and come back refreshed and ready to go for December think it will do me the world of good with the right mindset from the start.
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@ryan said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Excellent to hear about the news on your daughter, I hope that relationship really kicks on for the both of you.
So the plan with the trades now is to follow these 3 strategies?
Thanks . No mate i am going to do my lay the underdog system for the time being and post on here how i am getting on
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@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard sounds good, as long as you are happy with the amount of data you have for them. 1%/1 point of the bank is easily measured by just dividing your current bank by 100. Its the easiest way to calculate and the way id encourage anyone new to start with. People do variations of this but there is no need. Just stick to 1% is 1 point of the bank, nice and simple.
So in your case a £200 bank
1 point is £200/100 = £2
Just change the measurement anytime you plan to up stakes. The art of compounding.Good luck with this. Be a pretty interesting period of your life if not only are you meeting your daughter but now also making £££s from trading. Hope this period goes well for you mate and make up for the past (gambling), here if you ever want an SOS chat mate, there is no better feeling than moving on from negative times with gambling, we can both share similarities in that
Thanks Darri , i thought 1% of my bank is the easiest way of understanding bank management and starting out trading properly.
The discipline side is essential for this to work. And now having a plan set out not over complicating things is the way forward .Thanks for your support appreciate .
Will keep you updating on this blog and any advice would be welcome -
@james-everard sounds good, as long as you are happy with the amount of data you have for them. 1%/1 point of the bank is easily measured by just dividing your current bank by 100. Its the easiest way to calculate and the way id encourage anyone new to start with. People do variations of this but there is no need. Just stick to 1% is 1 point of the bank, nice and simple.
So in your case a £200 bank
1 point is £200/100 = £2
Just change the measurement anytime you plan to up stakes. The art of compounding.Good luck with this. Be a pretty interesting period of your life if not only are you meeting your daughter but now also making £££s from trading. Hope this period goes well for you mate and make up for the past (gambling), here if you ever want an SOS chat mate, there is no better feeling than moving on from negative times with gambling, we can both share similarities in that
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Thanks all for the messages means a lot. Been an emotional roller coaster but can't wait to for the new adventure to begin.
Trading is going to change from now on, i can't afford to waste money like i have and will be sticking to one strategy and hopefully will reap the rewards.
Will be updating my trading journey much more often which will help me keep focused. -
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard if i were you id make sure you start to measure all this with points/% of bank. As soon as you scale the bank youll be chopping and changing your thought process on these.
For example stuarts ltd system is currently making you just shy of 2p per trade. Even with compounding this takes a heck of a lot to plough through with trades and bank outlay. Its only just made it into profit for the first time in ages and now suddenly you want to trade it with real money. Try to focus on long term data from your own perspective/findings. 2p made per trade over +400 trades is a worry and not something youd advise anyone to trade right now. Perhaps give this one till start of february see if it has 3/4 consistent months. Rather than one big one after several losing ones.
Your LTD is 7p per trade. If we take this from a general view, and go with you using £2 as your max liability (im assuming your not meaning £2 stakes) then you risked £1,500 to make just £55. Obviously that gets higher if these are min stakes rather than min liability. The amount of trades here is quite a lot for 1 strategy. Its double that of stuarts this month. No tweaks to improve them and also cut down on the losses?
Right now i just see these as pains of variance cycles. Between the 2 of them is there a few tweaks to improve them to give you a bigger edge?
Your underdog seems to be doing well tho, 4x less trades and almost 1.5x the profit. In fact this one your making almost £1 a trade. Which compared to the pennies the other 2 are making seems like this one should be used for your trading bank. Much smaller sample but clearly a bigger maybe more safe edge with regards to variance and bank outlay for hundreds of trades. The other 2 look labour some and not that profitable compared to amount of trades and money needed to place them. Just my opinion. Iv said this already having 2 strats in the same markets always worries me that eventually youll hit bad variances on those specific markets in freak weekends.
However cant judge fully on the dogs because cant see points/% of bank. Id definitely start recording this with points/% of bank, especially now your gonna be trading these. But the dogs if liability is £2 and not £2 stakes seems to be a goer.
Hi Darri thanks for your honest assessment on what you think i should do. I am going to take a few days off trading entirely get my mind refreshed and focused and take on board your points.
I will analyse my ltd and see if there is anything potentially in the system by breaking down the results and looking at leagues and odds ranges that could potentially find an edge in . If there is anything i will then just paper trade recording odds and results for 3 months and see if there is any improvement.
Will just work on my laying of the underdog as you are quite right it is the only non labour intensive profitable strategy. Will start this weekend was thinking of starting with a £200.00 bank using 1% banks stakes. So just to confirm doing this it would be £2.00 liability stakes with a £200.00 bank? -
Glad everything went well mate, that’s all that matters.
