The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lots of people collecting data on strategies and here is something that may help:
https://valuebettingblog.com/drawdown-monte-carlo-simulation-calculator-for-sports-betting/
Forget about strike rate; the most important metrics are profit, P value and drawdown.
P value- probability that your results are due to chance- you want this to be below 1% ideally. Lower the better.
Drawdown is a measure of how much your system "swings". It is the maximum distance between the highest peak and lowest trough in a given period.This uses Monte Carlo simulation (basically runs your system as many times as you like and works out the median drawdown, likelihood of making profit etc).
Here's one I made earlier:
You need to calculate your yield. This is profit/outlay.
This calculator is for backing. Most of us lay. But it's easy enough. Your outlay is simply sum of the odds you layed at minus number of trades. Then covert that into a percentage.You then need your average back odds. Again very easy: calculate your average lay odds, then use this formula-
1+(1/average lay odds)The profit figure will be lower because you are calculating as if you had backed with one point. In reality, you layed for more points. Simply put your average lay odds-1 into the average bet size box.
Whether you do this or not does not affect the P value. It will obviously affect the drawdown size , however.
It makes no difference whether you have a high volume or low volume system. The only things that matter are the profit (obvs) and the P Value (is your system a fluke? Will it be profitable long term?) The drawdown shows how "swingy" your system is. A system can be very profitable and still have a high drawdown. The question is whether you can handle that amount of "swing".
All the best for the New Year!
Quality post mate
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Lots of people collecting data on strategies and here is something that may help:
https://valuebettingblog.com/drawdown-monte-carlo-simulation-calculator-for-sports-betting/
Forget about strike rate; the most important metrics are profit, P value and drawdown.
P value- probability that your results are due to chance- you want this to be below 1% ideally. Lower the better.
Drawdown is a measure of how much your system "swings". It is the maximum distance between the highest peak and lowest trough in a given period.This uses Monte Carlo simulation (basically runs your system as many times as you like and works out the median drawdown, likelihood of making profit etc).
Here's one I made earlier:
You need to calculate your yield. This is profit/outlay.
This calculator is for backing. Most of us lay. But it's easy enough. Your outlay is simply sum of the odds you layed at minus number of trades. Then covert that into a percentage.You then need your average back odds. Again very easy: calculate your average lay odds, then use this formula-
1+(1/average lay odds)The profit figure will be lower because you are calculating as if you had backed with one point. In reality, you layed for more points. Simply put your average lay odds-1 into the average bet size box.
Whether you do this or not does not affect the P value. It will obviously affect the drawdown size , however.
It makes no difference whether you have a high volume or low volume system. The only things that matter are the profit (obvs) and the P Value (is your system a fluke? Will it be profitable long term?) The drawdown shows how "swingy" your system is. A system can be very profitable and still have a high drawdown. The question is whether you can handle that amount of "swing".
All the best for the New Year!
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): Sunday, 02nd January 2022
15:15 - Elche v Granada
16:30 - Chelsea v Liverpoolle jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham UnitedI'm home in the Promised Land of East Belfast! Here's my picks for Saturday, 01st January 2022
Anyway, if anyone likes the theatre and are in London between now and October, please try your best to see 'Come From Away'. Fantastic show that I promise won't disappoint! Superb!
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix - HT: 1-0 / FT: 4-0
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra - HT: 3-1 / FT: 4-1
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham United - HT: 2-3 / FT: 2-33/3 from the 1.5's
3/3 from SHGs
6/6 for today
Hi Keith, do you back a SHG regardless of what the score is at half time, what odds are you taking?
Yes, I do indeed. Generally won’t LCS above 6.0. I’m using Betfair for the 1.5’s and Betdaq for the SHG
Thankyou and well done
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham UnitedI'm home in the Promised Land of East Belfast! Here's my picks for Saturday, 01st January 2022
Anyway, if anyone likes the theatre and are in London between now and October, please try your best to see 'Come From Away'. Fantastic show that I promise won't disappoint! Superb!
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix - HT: 1-0 / FT: 4-0
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra - HT: 3-1 / FT: 4-1
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham United - HT: 2-3 / FT: 2-33/3 from the 1.5's
3/3 from SHGs
6/6 for today
Hi Keith, do you back a SHG regardless of what the score is at half time, what odds are you taking?
Yes, I do indeed. Generally won’t LCS above 6.0. I’m using Betfair for the 1.5’s and Betdaq for the SHG
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham UnitedI'm home in the Promised Land of East Belfast! Here's my picks for Saturday, 01st January 2022
Anyway, if anyone likes the theatre and are in London between now and October, please try your best to see 'Come From Away'. Fantastic show that I promise won't disappoint! Superb!
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix - HT: 1-0 / FT: 4-0
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra - HT: 3-1 / FT: 4-1
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham United - HT: 2-3 / FT: 2-33/3 from the 1.5's
3/3 from SHGs
6/6 for today
Hi Keith, do you back a SHG regardless of what the score is at half time, what odds are you taking?
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@keith-anderson
Fantastic Keith , youve made me some money today, shame i didnt see the Adelaide one til too late.Looking forward to tomorrows list !
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham UnitedI'm home in the Promised Land of East Belfast! Here's my picks for Saturday, 01st January 2022
Anyway, if anyone likes the theatre and are in London between now and October, please try your best to see 'Come From Away'. Fantastic show that I promise won't disappoint! Superb!
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
08:45 - Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix - HT: 1-0 / FT: 4-0
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra - HT: 3-1 / FT: 4-1
17:30 - Crystal Palace v West Ham United - HT: 2-3 / FT: 2-33/3 from the 1.5's
3/3 from SHGs
6/6 for today
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
15:00 - Burton Albion v Crewe Alexandra
That was nice and easy!
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@alan-steward yeah i know how they can be not even gonna waste my time arguing with them
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@martin-walker have had that before... Bloody annoying, World Cup, think it was a Dutch game and backed another goal just before a pen... Betfair wouldn't budge
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@alan-steward backed another goal just before the var thing happened
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@martin-walker what was your trade?
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I traded it and theyve bloody voided it
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Didn't trade it but there's the SHG @ Aresnal swiftly followed by a red card... Onto the 3 o'clock games
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Will wait to see if Man City come out in SH with more attacking intent before entering SHG... Am content with my 0.36pts green from Match Odds
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Backed the first half goal on 21 mins and was just about to go in again when the Arse scored. I'll take that.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Backed Aresnal at 5.6... Small inplay stakes
1-0 Aresnal... Greened up
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward Cant see this staying goalless for long
No will wait until HT now and maybe trade the plus 2 goal market... Will check all stats and odds at HT
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@alan-steward Cant see this staying goalless for long
