My First Half Goal Strategy
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Another quiet day football wise.
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Nothing on the filter today.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
2nd January:
Only 2 on the filter that have survived postponement.
English PL:
Leeds v Burnley
Brentford v Aston Villa2/2 FHG
+1 point -
2nd January:
Only 2 on the filter that have survived postponement.
English PL:
Leeds v Burnley
Brentford v Aston Villa -
2/3 today, both winners with goals inside the first 15 minutes. Means overall profit at -0.5 points.
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Hi Matt, good luck with this strategy will be following your progression. I have tried various filters to try to find a edge for a first half goal without success so interested how you get on mate
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This looks interesting. Thanks for posting about it.
I like the filter angle on percentage of teams whose matches are 0-0 at half time you’re taking as if incorporating a back-testing element. Seems obvious but i never thought of it in that way.
I’m also running a test filter and on FH O0.5G. Well it officially started as a FH U1.5G test but it seemed well worth logging the price and potential profit of O0.5G on each match as after 160 or so trades the strike rate for U1.5G was almost identical to O0.5G at approx 67%. Currently 20 trades later and that is still the same.
What I’ve found on my filter is the vast majority of goals are scored within the first 10-15 minutes. There is a very clear decreasing chance of a goal until half time.
Good luck. I look forward to seeing your progress.
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Will be keeping a close eye on this to see if it something I can incorporate into my own FHG strategy.
Best wishes.
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@matt-ayles good luck Matt will be following with interest
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@ian-wylie thank you for your comments.
As mentioned I tried a few staking plans including several for getting in later, but I found that missing all the early goals actually cost more in winners than was lost in stakes if no goals came etc.
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Hi Matt, thanks for sharing this, it's something I've been looking at recently, more by accident really, when I noticed that one of my recently tweaked filters for Over 1.5 goals has a high percentage of of first half goals. I don't have enough games on it to start trading it yet, only 50 games so far with a FHG in 81.63% of them but I was interested to see your staking plan which looks well thought out as it gets around the issue of an early goal so at least you get some profit.
I'll be following this thread with interest, thanks again.
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@matt-ayles Good luck with it Matt .. all the best for the New Year
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1st January 2022:
Eng L1:
Burton v Crewe
MK Dons v GillinghamEng L2:
Walsall v Newport
