Laying The Favourite
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Re: Lay the Fav 1st Set 3-3 / 4-4
Now this isn't old hat for older members, but its something I have found I like. Laying The favourite.Admittedly I found it through watching a video on YouTube, which wasn't by BTC(Shame on me!) and before I had found the thread above!!
Bear with me as I new to this trading lark, but have a strategy in my head, now on paper to earn a consistent income from In Play Tennis Matches.Now I have done this 3 times this week (Nove 2021) and so far am enjoying it.
I did two small trades at £2. The frist one was a trial to see how it worked so I minimised my liability.I lost £0.02
The next two trades I have done, have been for £2 again and then another one at £5 today 18/11/2021 have both resulted in a small cash out, which has mean where my bank was showing a small loss due to the liability being taken first, has ended up back where it was as I took a small profit
Now I know this might not sound much to other more experienced members of this community, butr for me it represents a small victory. I was going to place this under the existing thread, but got asked to create a new one instead!
So laying the favourite is another strategy for me, to add to my 'betting lay' on absolute losers
I'll be happy to take advice or comments on this trading strategy, if anyone has experience they care to share
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@chris-osborne Hey thats really good advice about the WTA, and confirms my own thinking from watching both types of match, so thanks for that.
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@chris-king any tennis strategy should focus on singles only and doubles should be avoided. Liquidity may not be there but outside of grand slams motivation is a factor especially if player(s) are also in single as well.
I agree about focussing on WTA in slams, ATP matches would be fine in regular weeks but they are 5 sets in the slams so you wont see the swings.
Another strategy that works well in WTA matches similar principle to Ryan's 33/44 strategy is laying a player serving for the set/match and 5-4. Worked a couple of times this year already in limited trading with Lauren Davis and Greet Minnen. Its profitible on most of the WTA field and is cheap to do so but if its players who are known to choke - Pera, Sasnovich, Hercog, Giorgi etc or bad servers then even better. You can either cssh out or remove liability at after a break back or at the end of the set.
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All sounds good. I too am trying to hone my football trading. I would like to add a tennis strategy though and feel that this approach is one I really like.
I agree, I’m not going to trade doubles. Women’s singles have to have the best opportunities in my opinion as there are a lot of swings usually. Men’s singles are definitely an option but it’s a lot more likely to get caught in a losing situation where you can’t even trade out for a scratch. Men’s matches need a bit more expertise i feel.
I have done the same, in not staying in for much greater profit’s fearing I’d lose any gains I’ve made. Again I think more expertise and practise time will help.
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@chris-king To Be Honest, I haven't done very much with it until the last couple of days as I wanted to be happy with my LTD in football, which I am now.
I paper traded a couple of games, I did these matches after watching and re watching Ryans video in the Training videos section, which were very close first set 3-3 or 4-4 and watched how the match went. I had decided my exit point is going to be around game 4 in the second set, so that the trade is one for around 15 minutes or so.
The results I was happy with
I have done a couple of matches in testing for Very small two pound stakes, both of which I exited way earlier than I should have, but with profit anyway.So I am happy to add that into my trading portfolio, but only on singles matches and possibly limited to the womens game at the moment.
But by my reckoning, with laying the favourite between 1.04 to 1.5 for a minimal liability based on what I have seen so far, then its a good addition.
As for match skills, I'm getting better, but still not excellent and I spend time watching the odds and how they drift out, but overall I am happy.
I am also reading the PDF Ryan posted in here about Trading in the Zone which is really good
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@dave-hayes Hey how is this going?
I’ve been playing about with this strategy with £2.00 stakes - laying the first set winner/favourite at very short odds. I’ve enjoyed it and seems it could be something I could hone for nice profits.
What I want to see though is that the first set has been competitive, not a complete blowout of the underdog.
I’ll also try and check Flash Scores for player rankings, recent form and performance on the court type the current match is being played on.
What is your exit strategy?
To keep loses to a minimum I’ve generally been leaving the trade in until the end of the set potentially if get odds 1.1 or under (I like to get odds of 1.05-1.08 if possible).
If the odds are higher and it really doesn’t look like it’s happening I’ll exit with a rough loss of half my liability.I’ll generally trade out if there is a break of the favourite’s serve or the underdog goes 0-40 / 15-40. This is mainly what I’m looking for.
I may stay in if the underdog looks strong to see if they can then hold serve or go 30-0 / 40-15 / 40-0. I’m more inclined to do this if I got very low odds to begin with.
I have used profit from a winning trade to lay at low odds again, which worked out well once doubling my profit.There is so much potential upside trading like this if you push and stay in the trade longer, but my match reading skills aren’t there yet and it can feel like a gamble. That said, sometimes it is clear the underdog has real potential to do more, however I find I am comfortable risking the amount I could win, if I get the exit point mentioned above, so with a good strike rate this should be quite profitable.
I actually prefer watching tennis to football. I like how quickly trades can be and I like the feeling of having to be completely engaged in the trade, whereas in football you are waiting, at least if you are trading goal markets for example.
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@Ryan Thanks for the compliments
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@Ryan The strategy I am doing is laying the favourite who loses the 1st set at odds of between 1.05 or 1.4
This worked yesterday as mentioned above with a profit of £1.37 ROI 27%
I haven't tried the 3-3 or 4-4 yet
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@dave-hayes I am little confused what strategy you are doing buddy?
(Might be me slow today, the baby didnt sleep and the one HUGE coffee hasn't kicked in yet!)
On the 3-3 / 4-4 I lay the fav if the score is 3-3 / 4-4 in the first set.
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@Ryan laying the winner of the first set seems a good strategy, which worked yesterday and gives me another tournamet to put in my folder
I didn't lay at either 3-3 or 4-4 because I could work out from the video which way you were saying to go
The other thing I though about last night, which brought a big smile to my face was laying the loser
EG Novak Djokovic v Opponent
Lay the opponent either before the 1st set or after the 1st set then see how it goes, but then saying that, I guess it depends on the odds.
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@Chris-Osborne Yes I've worked out that Marginal gains are the way or one of the ways to go, so am happy with that
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@dave-hayes nothing wrong with “marginal gains” more easily scaleable
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@Chris-Osborne Thanks for this. I have just watched the video on YouTube and read the blog post, so I understand it more fully now. I like it because it works nicely.I'm happier with small profits to build the bank up.
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@dave-hayes @ryan has a strategy around this if you look in the strategies section. It’s also set up as a members filter in the tennis stats although we probably won’t see much activity in there until next year now.
It’s not my default strategy but I use it from time to time it’s surprising how often it works. Profits from which you can then use to lay the first set winner should you want to and is one of my main strategies
