NFL Strategies
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@dan-peacey good analysis there. Chiefs don't look amazing yet do they and Browns played really well last week.
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@chris-osborne said in NFL Strategies:
Having watched @Martin's video on value earlier today, had a look at this weekend's NFL schedule, there are a few games where I think teams are priced wrong: -
Falcons 3-4 price 3.4 at Saints 5-2 Price 1.4
If they hadn't lost Jameis Winston to an ACL last week I would have said these prices would be about right. I would not trust either Taysom Hill or Trevor Simien one bit. Saints may still win this but they should be around 1.8 for me. Possible lay of the Saints although will probablywait to see how they start
Raiders 62 Price 1.62 at Giants 2-6 Price 2.58
After the week the Raiders have had, with Ruggs destroying his career and facing a long jail sentence, I don't see them as clear favourites. If Giants hold onto the ball I would expect them to win this.
PAckers 7-1 Price 3.95 at Chiefs 4-4 1.33
All things being equal, would probably have PAckers as slight favourites against a struggling Chiefs. However, Rodgers is out for COVID reasons meaning Jordan Love starts his first game since being drafted last year having had very little playing time. Chiefs are priced too low but as with the Saints would be looking to see how this starts
Cardinals 7-1 2.46 @ 49ers 3-4 1.67
Someone needs to explain this one to me can only be bias towards the home team even with doubts about Deebo Samuel as I have the Cards winning easily
I have recently watched Martin's video also. I know that its Thursday and prices may yet move, I have found 2 potential games that I think the prices are wrong.
Browns 2.1 @ Pats - both have 5 4 records and is a coin toss.
Raiders 2.26 - Raiders 5 3, Chiefs 5 4, I have Raiders as slight favourites maybe 1.88What do you think? Will monitor prices over the next few days
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@stephen-oleary thanks probably beginners luck will have a look later in the week at the Sunday games, the Thursday Night game Should be an easy win for the Ravens. Sorry @martin although after this weekends carnage who knows
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@chris-osborne Great post! 3 from 4 and on your analysis of the packer vs chiefs if you saw the 1st qtr you would have backed chiefs all day. I watched the game and I couldn't believe i got 1.90 for under 44.5 TP at end of first qtr. Chiefs clearly aren't the same team as past couple of years.
Cant wait to see your next post great job. -
@chris-osborne said in NFL Strategies:
Having watched @Martin's video on value earlier today, had a look at this weekend's NFL schedule, there are a few games where I think teams are priced wrong: -
Falcons 3-4 price 3.4 at Saints 5-2 Price 1.4
If they hadn't lost Jameis Winston to an ACL last week I would have said these prices would be about right. I would not trust either Taysom Hill or Trevor Simien one bit. Saints may still win this but they should be around 1.8 for me. Possible lay of the Saints although will probablywait to see how they start
Raiders 62 Price 1.62 at Giants 2-6 Price 2.58
After the week the Raiders have had, with Ruggs destroying his career and facing a long jail sentence, I don't see them as clear favourites. If Giants hold onto the ball I would expect them to win this.
PAckers 7-1 Price 3.95 at Chiefs 4-4 1.33
All things being equal, would probably have PAckers as slight favourites against a struggling Chiefs. However, Rodgers is out for COVID reasons meaning Jordan Love starts his first game since being drafted last year having had very little playing time. Chiefs are priced too low but as with the Saints would be looking to see how this starts
Cardinals 7-1 2.46 @ 49ers 3-4 1.67
Someone needs to explain this one to me can only be bias towards the home team even with doubts about Deebo Samuel as I have the Cards winning easily
Outstanding!
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Cardinals look really decent regardless!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
Allegedly will take a miracle for Murray to start v 49ers...
Confirmed, both Murray and Hopkins out.
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Allegedly will take a miracle for Murray to start v 49ers...
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@martin with everything else going on this week Ruggs, Rodgers etc I completely missed the news about Murray
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@sean-fitzgerald said in NFL Strategies:
@chris-osborne
Love the analysis and agree with all. Cards/49’ers heavily dependant on Murray.
I took a nice back early position on 49’ers at $1.92 early in the week anticipating would shorten with Murray speculation. Exited position at $1.75 for nice chunk of green as didn’t think they would/should come in much further. I’m surprised they came in further
agree Colt McCoy is a strange back up too, I mean at least he has experience but his style is nothing like Murray.
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@chris-osborne
Love the analysis and agree with all. Cards/49’ers heavily dependant on Murray.
I took a nice back early position on 49’ers at $1.92 early in the week anticipating would shorten with Murray speculation. Exited position at $1.75 for nice chunk of green as didn’t think they would/should come in much further. I’m surprised they came in further
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
@Chris-Osborne you're absolutely on the money with this kind of analysis. For me, the biggest value of the week is the Cards.
San Fran are average at best, they've struggled on the ground against teams with good rush defence and Mitchell is still listed as questionable (although he was involved in zero contact practice this week). You've already mentioned Deebo too, their top target, who Arizona restricted to just 58 yards a few weeks ago.
I do however think the price is due to the likelihood Arizona will be without QB Murray and top WR Hopkins, both of which are questionable, took part in no practice this week and have game time assessments to pass. That inserts McCoy at QB and will most likely see them run the ball more.
However if they announce at game time that Murray starts, those odds could flip pre snap!
There is some talk of Murray being out, looks like him and Hopkins will be game-time decisions, at least that's the last I heard.
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@chris-osborne good analysis there! Shame about Rodgers because I bet Chiefs would have been overpriced either way, they will be good value to lay rest of season in certain spots until the market makers realise how average they are.
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@Chris-Osborne you're absolutely on the money with this kind of analysis. For me, the biggest value of the week is the Cards.
San Fran are average at best, they've struggled on the ground against teams with good rush defence and Mitchell is still listed as questionable (although he was involved in zero contact practice this week). You've already mentioned Deebo too, their top target, who Arizona restricted to just 58 yards a few weeks ago.
I do however think the price is due to the likelihood Arizona will be without QB Murray and top WR Hopkins, both of which are questionable, took part in no practice this week and have game time assessments to pass. That inserts McCoy at QB and will most likely see them run the ball more.
However if they announce at game time that Murray starts, those odds could flip pre snap!
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Having watched @Martin's video on value earlier today, had a look at this weekend's NFL schedule, there are a few games where I think teams are priced wrong: -
Falcons 3-4 price 3.4 at Saints 5-2 Price 1.4
If they hadn't lost Jameis Winston to an ACL last week I would have said these prices would be about right. I would not trust either Taysom Hill or Trevor Simien one bit. Saints may still win this but they should be around 1.8 for me. Possible lay of the Saints although will probablywait to see how they start
Raiders 62 Price 1.62 at Giants 2-6 Price 2.58
After the week the Raiders have had, with Ruggs destroying his career and facing a long jail sentence, I don't see them as clear favourites. If Giants hold onto the ball I would expect them to win this.
PAckers 7-1 Price 3.95 at Chiefs 4-4 1.33
All things being equal, would probably have PAckers as slight favourites against a struggling Chiefs. However, Rodgers is out for COVID reasons meaning Jordan Love starts his first game since being drafted last year having had very little playing time. Chiefs are priced too low but as with the Saints would be looking to see how this starts
Cardinals 7-1 2.46 @ 49ers 3-4 1.67
Someone needs to explain this one to me can only be bias towards the home team even with doubts about Deebo Samuel as I have the Cards winning easily
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@martin Problem Wilson has with the Jets is he has nothing to help him there skill players must be the worse group in the league and he gets no protection from the O'Line even less with Beckton being out
Being out for a few weeks and just watching may not be a bad thing for him which is one of the reasons why long term of the 5 QB's drafted in R1 Trey LAnce will be the best of the lot in my opinion. Although looks like he will be starting if Garropalo has one more bad game.
I've been massively disappointed in LAwrence, all the hype and looks completely out his depth he has more support than Wilson has with the Jets.
Fields I didn't rate in College he had to leave Georgia because he could not beat out Jake Fromm from the starting QB role which to me says everything.
Having said all that, lets wait until next season and see what happens. All these teams will be drafting in the top 10 again this year hopefully they all get some help.
Teams who need a QB and we're hoping for a high draft pick next year - Lions, Texans, WFT etc are in for a disappointment from what I'vebeen reading there isn't alot of first round potential in this years draft class.
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@chris-osborne I think Lawrence will be very good eventually. I think Fields will be a bit hit and miss but fine, his ability to run will challenge people even if he isn't the most accurate passer. I'm just not sure what Wilson can do better than either of them to be honest, looks wildly inconsistent and doesn't add a lot on the ground either.
