The road to full time

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First proper outright of the season!

Relegation Prem - Watford @1.75

I think for me Norwich are a comfortable team to go down this year, getting any sort of money on them is probably value. However, i wouldnt advise getting on them right now if you are not yet as they have a decent run of fixtures and that price could rise enough to extract even more value if you havent already got on, so ill look to enter them after this current fixture run. For me i dont like entering pre season, always prefer seeing how things pan out and then make an informed trade. However the norwich trade would have you in such a good position here. So this trade could be for those who want to move some of those profits onto another team now and try grow them further.

Watford arguably had the easiest start to the prem this year in terms of bottom half teams and some data users might even suggest of all the teams. They have only come out of that run with 7 points. They have one of the worst xG conceded stats, they also have one of the worst xG stats. When you consider who they were playing youd want them to be at least mid table or even top half, right now they are below average xgc wise and terrible xg rated.

Here is there upcoming fixtures right up until they play norwich the week after these games, which could be a shrewd exit point.

When i look at that run of games im not going into each individual game guessing the score, in fact they could surprise a few and do well against the top 6, but its more the fact their easier games are all away from home too bar southampton/palace 2 games out of 15 that you could potentially give them 3 points each. This is when taking value comes in and playing it as a set and forget outright. At 1.73-1.76 for the reasons above i feel like its almost looking as bad as the norwich start to the season. For me these are the 2 teams to target. Given the norwich run im staying away but if their price also rises i may pop back up here with them also.

So here is how im gonna do this. After each game ill be dollar cost averaging 1 pt of what my bank is at the time on them. Then come the new year i can then green up/take loss or remove liability. Lets say they win against liverpool, which given brazils fixtures could make them weaker id still be getting on board. Iv just placed my first 1pt going into this weekend and ill try keep this updated during my monthly reviews.

I had targeted a few other outright trades but last year i went a bit ott with them and not all were good value plays. This time im trying to focus on one or two in focussed clumps and no "punts" so to speak. Let me know if you get on this ill add a sheet to track this as there is an outright i like for the t20 world cup. These are bonuses for the season btw, they dont contribute to the bank so instead of points made ill only be showing ROI from invested money. The bank grows hopefully every month so stakes change etc. So these are often strategies ill look to build bank for end of season trades such as top 4 or winners markets. The money made doesnt add to the bank but ill take it like a dividend/bonus for doing well.

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That will be the last of the charity bets that ill be posting. Ill continue to do these myself, but privately. Iv become aware that this could lead to people veering towards gambling instead of trading, stake wise. As you can see i had a £100 bank for it, there was a reason it was so low, and thats because these arent my main trades these are just value trades. So to protect newer traders or those prone to gambling ill be stopping posting these. When i post i want it to be the best value possible. To do that ill only be posting my main trades going forward.

Ill be continuing to post my LTDs here and my SHG/Lates on the football thread inplay, only midweek games. Weekends will continue to be set and forget only. Ill be doing these privately but least that way i know im not having people actually main bank trading these. Good idea but veering towards being a tipster as wasnt really sure how people were trading them and didnt realise main banks were in use. Least it made profit.

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Overnight trades:

No main trades

Charity/Fun: ov 1.5 Bahia vs Palmeiras

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Daily selections:

Main trades:
None

Fun/Charity:
Faroes vs Scotland (over 1.5)

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No trades next few days i predict, slowly grinding away at a new strategy im testing in background. Plan to have a review end of year in relation to what exactly i want to trade, right now im just testing all the angles i want and then ill select a few and focus on improving them going forward. It will take that long anyway to gather a decent amount of data for the others strats id be willing to consider.

I know it sounds like im doing a lot more than i normally advise but im not trying to make these strats tradable just yet im only building to see an overview of what could be done with them and likely the amount per month that could be traded etc. Im all about managing the future risks of my bank rather than how good a strat is. Almost every strat could be good with a few tweaks remember, but a bank is just a normal bank that i need to protect even against good strats. Cant be on everything.

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@chris-osborne to be decided. First year will be a small amount raised then hopefully the compounding will mean it grows year on year. Keeps you away from using your main bank on trades outside your "systems". Iv a few ideas of what to do with the bank but right now just wanting to build it gradually. I might make money i might not, but if you have the itch to trade sometimes having these things are great cause they keep stakes low and gives you a decent cause. I mean doesnt need to be charity could be labelled new shed/car etc. This leaves your main bank alone to build passively.

I did the post a few weeks ago, but basically ill be compounding every £10 made, trades/bets when i deem value, end of season (prem) ill then put 50% of profits to charity and we will keep 50% profits for next season. It also will allow me to test a new strategy that will be mixed in so a good place for me to test new things.

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@darri must of missed the post about your charity bets I think this is an excellent idea, what charity are you raising money for.

I’ll probably look at doing similar next year.

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Tyson Fury lands us a nice winner from last night in the charity/fun trades. Thanks to Dan M for spotting the skybet price.

There are no main trades today, but there is one for the charity/fun bank:

ov1.5 colombia vs brazil

Ill most likely just start doing a daily selections sheet on here and include both

Eamonn Hogan

@darri said in The road to full time:

Words cannot do justice to what just happened :scotland: honesty what a couple of years we have had, no scotland no party, stadium was bouncing

Great result

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@darri said in The road to full time:

LTD for today:

Sarmiento vs Aldosivi (argentina)

1/1 for these, a good day in the charity/fun trades and scotland winning last minute

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Words cannot do justice to what just happened :scotland: honesty what a couple of years we have had, no scotland no party, stadium was bouncing

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These are the current charity/fun bets i have on today, sweden a late addition to any of those who are following, ill be watching :scotland: must win

Eamonn Hogan

@darri said in The road to full time:

@eamonn-hogan i wont be doing inplay trading at weekends. This is because weekends are for family and friends. Im wanting to reap the rewards of trading not be having to work for them.

Midweek at nights especially during winter ill not have too much on socially , ill get most of stuff done during day. So i can set time to trade champs/europa games.

Basically its to avoid screen time at weekends or be having to be aware of phone notifcations etc, for me i want to be fully present when im doing other things trading in my opinion should never interfere with social engagement. We have seen too many examples of people struggling with family/partners and mental health because they get addicted to it. Im expecting ill have at least 3-5 trades on at weekends with LTDs (set and forgets) meaning this can be 100% passive income allowing me to enjoy my weekends. There is the "endless potential" side of trading but if you dont structure what/how/when you will trade youll just get caught up in this and struggle long term.

Cheers mate. Solid advice

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@eamonn-hogan i wont be doing inplay trading at weekends. This is because weekends are for family and friends. Im wanting to reap the rewards of trading not be having to work for them.

Midweek at nights especially during winter ill not have too much on socially , ill get most of stuff done during day. So i can set time to trade champs/europa games.

Basically its to avoid screen time at weekends or be having to be aware of phone notifcations etc, for me i want to be fully present when im doing other things trading in my opinion should never interfere with social engagement. We have seen too many examples of people struggling with family/partners and mental health because they get addicted to it. Im expecting ill have at least 3-5 trades on at weekends with LTDs (set and forgets) meaning this can be 100% passive income allowing me to enjoy my weekends. There is the "endless potential" side of trading but if you dont structure what/how/when you will trade youll just get caught up in this and struggle long term.

Eamonn Hogan

@darri said in The road to full time:

Up early and cracking on with some work, before I start to enjoy the int break and peace, thought id run through the change a bit more. Its really about how im staking all this and what type of trades im doing.

LTD: staking reverts back to what it was before. Average liability is around 2.6pts per trade.
Midweek: SHG is 2pts per trade/Lates also 2pts per trade

Been working on testing that approach with past data for midweek action and looks promising. Over the rest of int break ill continue back testing when i can.

Based on all of the data and back testing so far and with a small outlay for trades looking around 15-25pts profit per month. Seems manageable. re adjusting staking to accommodate adding in midweeks, dont want to be adding more outlay just to be more active. Should be full on autopilot for after int break and get back to business. Sheets setup and already have a set way of trading the midweeks planned Wont be posting much between now and end of int break, only coming on if there is a LTD to post, but if you have any questions fire away id encourage people to avoid these int games, just accept the break. Int breaks can sometimes derail people and their mindset.

Hi Darri. Why are you separating the lates and shg into midweek? Will you not be doing these trades at the weekend?

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LTD for today:

Sarmiento vs Aldosivi (argentina)

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Also the charity/fun bank will be getting used over the weekend with the horses, ill try get these up on the spreadsheet before lunch time every day and ill keep to that schedule when the football returns also ill be compounding that bank every £10 increase Got a couple on for today

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Dont worry if you arent wanting to post publicly to get involved with the golf, if i find something that i feel could work long term then ill be posting them as i would with all my football trades. For pure transparency the 3 golfers i chose pre tournament were C.Hoffman, C.Hadley and B.Harman, have greened up on the first 2

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@matt-wood nice, im gonna take the weekend to look at it more and then ill if i can see something or think it could be viable ill get both of you to give me some feedback on it or see if there is something we can all work on behind the scenes

Matt Wood

Morning Darri, Eamonn, both good I hope.

I would be very interested in building a golf trading strat to compliment my footy. I see golf as a 'slow' less pressured style of trade so really should not interfere with footy.
Not sure what I can bring to the table other than being willing to work My brother is a big golf fan so may be able to hit him up for opinions.