Journey to semi pro
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
@steve-sandell yeah 1 is normally bad for me, 2 is really bad. Ive never had 3 or 4 ever in over 9 months
i think the last time it was that low was covid era so will take it as a bit of variance
Just checked last saturdays and that was at 82% SHG -
@steve-sandell yeah 1 is normally bad for me, 2 is really bad. Ive never had 3 or 4 ever in over 9 months
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
Yesterday was the worst day trading this filter has ever produced, think it was 4 or 5 losses in 1 day. Without dwelling too much on one days performance i still checked to see if there was anything i could spot. All games were way over the stats threshold and mainly coming from leagues that were running at 100% this season so ive put it down to a nice big hit of variance.
Its funny because i always seem to start the month poorly but this time i raced to a 3 point profit and i thought it was finally going to be smooth sailing for a month but nope not to be.
Im also actively trying to bring down the amount of trades per month by tightening some stats and removing leagues, maybe also tightening the min odds by 1 or 2. This will all be done naturally and not forced though and i will let the data tell me when im able to do this. Needs to be a slow process to not mess with the strategy too much as its running really well, just small optimising tweaks.
Thought id highlight the bad days this has for transparency.
I think SHG was down on the normal yesterday. My database had 115 games only 88 had a SHG = 76% so looks well down on the normal
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@martin-walker said in Journey to semi pro:
When you include last year its certainly not one of my better leagues
I was on the verge of letting it back in. Had something like 14 wins, 3 losses and just needed a few more wins before I would have been happy. Not no more.
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When you include last year its certainly not one of my better leagues
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@richard-latimer no, 7 wins 1 loss this season. The 1 loss falls below the stat i recently tightened though.
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@martin-walker Montpellier was on mine but I took out France a short while ago as not great. Glad I did.
You were 100% on France?
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I think 2 had a disallowed goal so i could of just been unlucky
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@richard-latimer off the top of my head it was, wolfsberger, tula, leuven, montpellier
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@martin-walker which games were your losses if you don't mind me asking?
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Singapore Premier League 03/10/2021 10:30:00 Geylang Balestier Khalsa 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie A 03/10/2021 11:30:00 Bologna Lazio 0-0 0-1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 03/10/2021 12:30:00 Anderlecht Club Brugge KV 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Belarus Vysshaya Liga 03/10/2021 12:30:00 Slutsk Energetik-BGU 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie B 03/10/2021 13:00:00 Brescia Como 0-0 0-1
Netherlands Eredivisie 03/10/2021 13:30:00 Ajax Utrecht 0-0 0-1
Netherlands Eredivisie 03/10/2021 13:30:00 Cambuur AZ Alkmaar 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie A 03/10/2021 14:00:00 Verona Spezia 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Denmark 1st Division 03/10/2021 14:00:00 Nykobing Helsingor 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Germany Bundesliga 03/10/2021 16:30:00 Bayern Munich Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Italy Serie A 03/10/2021 17:00:00 Fiorentina Napoli 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Russia Premier League 03/10/2021 17:00:00 Lokomotiv Moscow FK Rostov 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Eliteserien 03/10/2021 17:00:00 Mjondalen Brann 0-0 0-1
Norway Eliteserien 03/10/2021 19:00:00 Kristiansund Rosenborg 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1 -
Yesterday was the worst day trading this filter has ever produced, think it was 4 or 5 losses in 1 day. Without dwelling too much on one days performance i still checked to see if there was anything i could spot. All games were way over the stats threshold and mainly coming from leagues that were running at 100% this season so ive put it down to a nice big hit of variance.
Its funny because i always seem to start the month poorly but this time i raced to a 3 point profit and i thought it was finally going to be smooth sailing for a month but nope not to be.
Im also actively trying to bring down the amount of trades per month by tightening some stats and removing leagues, maybe also tightening the min odds by 1 or 2. This will all be done naturally and not forced though and i will let the data tell me when im able to do this. Needs to be a slow process to not mess with the strategy too much as its running really well, just small optimising tweaks.
Thought id highlight the bad days this has for transparency.
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Italy Serie B 02/10/2021 13:00:00 Alessandria Cosenza 0-0 0-1
Norway Obos-ligaen 02/10/2021 14:00:00 Sogndal Jerv 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Obos-ligaen 02/10/2021 14:00:00 Ranheim Strommen 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Obos-ligaen 02/10/2021 14:00:00 Fredrikstad Raufoss 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Obos-ligaen 02/10/2021 14:00:00 K. Oslo Stjordals Blink 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Obos-ligaen 02/10/2021 14:00:00 Start Asane 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Germany Bundesliga 02/10/2021 14:30:00 VfB Stuttgart Hoffenheim 0-0 0-1
Germany Bundesliga 02/10/2021 14:30:00 Dortmund FC Augsburg 0-0 0-1
Serbia Super Liga 02/10/2021 15:00:00 Backa Topola Cukaricki 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
France Ligue 1 02/10/2021 16:00:00 Montpellier Strasbourg 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Austria Admiral Bundesliga 02/10/2021 16:00:00 AC Wolfsberger Austria Vienna 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Austria Admiral Bundesliga 02/10/2021 16:00:00 Ried A. Klagenfurt 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Russia Premier League 02/10/2021 17:00:00 Arsenal Tula FK Chimki Moskovska oblast 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Norway Eliteserien 02/10/2021 17:00:00 Viking Sandefjord 0-0 0-1
Italy Serie A 02/10/2021 17:00:00 Torino Juventus 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 02/10/2021 17:30:00 St. Truiden Oostende 0-0 0-1
Italy Serie B 02/10/2021 17:30:00 Spal Parma 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Germany Bundesliga 02/10/2021 17:30:00 RB Leipzig Bochum 0-0 0-1
Netherlands Eredivisie 02/10/2021 17:45:00 Waalwijk G.A. Eagles 0-0 0-1
Belarus Vysshaya Liga 02/10/2021 18:00:00 FC Gomel Slavia Mozyr 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 02/10/2021 19:45:00 Leuven Beerschot VA 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1 -
@martin-walker I know what you mean re volume. Try putting them together just to see.
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@richard-latimer i havnt looked deeply into each scoreline as they are way off in terms of volume of data.
The filter runs at 89% with all scores so theres potentially some other good scorelines there.
Just checked 1-2 and even thats on a decent run recently -
@martin-walker Have you ever looked at what other scorlines would be like on yours? You might be surprised.
By that I mean all the crazy scorelines like 0-3, 3-0, 3-1, 1-3, 2-2, 3-2. Basically anything other than the ones you have and of course 0-2, 1-2 haha!!
They don't happen all that much in isolation to me but then I find these are scorelines I can group together applying the same criteria for the same results.
My own data shows 96/99.
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Ukraine Premier League 01/10/2021 17:30:00 Mariupol Rukh Lviv 0-0 0-1
Denmark 1st Division 01/10/2021 17:30:00 Fredericia Lyngby 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Germany Bundesliga 01/10/2021 19:30:00 FC Koln Greuther Furth 0-0 0-1
Ireland Division 1 01/10/2021 19:45:00 Athlone Cabinteely 0-0 0-1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 01/10/2021 19:45:00 KV Mechelen St. Liege 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1
Ireland Premier Division 01/10/2021 19:45:00 Drogheda St. Patricks 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 2-1 -
@richard-latimer could be, the officiating was horrendous last season and the results for it on my strat were poor. Will be leaving it until i see a huge upturn
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@martin-walker I wonder if the poor standard of officiating in the Premier League may account for poor results in trading it.
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End of month review.
5.72 points gained, i stake 5% so 28.6% bank increase.
Very pleased with the outcome and this is 8 months on the bounce now finishing in profit with this strategy.
Although a great outcome it was actually a very poor month as the amount of games traded was double last month and it gave slightly less profit. 15 losses which is huge for me in a month, 2 or 3 were probably my own fault for not jumping on bad leagues quick enough but easy to see in hindsight.
What i have spotted is a slight tightening of a stat that would of more than doubled the profit and got rid of 7 or so losses. Im thinking to run next month on this tighter version for safety.
Korea, denmark super and premier league all moved to the bin for now.
Stakes moved up to reflect new 5%
