The road to full time

[A Former User]

Overnight LTDs:

Banfield
San Jose
Portland

Update these in the morning.

1/1 so far today as Stromsgodset was a winner

[A Former User]

@darri said in The road to full time:

Anytime Goalscorers (charity): £2 stakes

Vardy 2.2 GOAL
Antonio 2.3 GOAL

BOOM! 2/2 great start to these

[A Former User]

My Trading List:

LTD: Lay to win 1.5pts

Stromsgodset
Banfield

Anytime Goalscorers (charity): £2 stakes

Vardy 2.2
Antonio 2.3

Ill update these later tonight as we have an overnight ltd to add

[A Former User]

2 posts in one night too much caffeine

Iv been thinking a lot about what im wanting from trading. While ill never give up these benefits they bring, im wanting to tailor them to fit my needs. This got me into thinking and really the reason i like this blog is for its transparency both for readers and for myself. Its keeping me away from overthinking. Iv an over hyper mind at times and some see it as a good thing that im eager to improve myself/ambitious, to me i see it as a hinderance as i often try to outsmart the process. The best things iv done are often the most simple things but doing them well. We always seem to put emphasis on the very big things and judge ourselves on that. When actually our life is greater improved with small but manageable tasks done well.

So how does this go away from hippie talk and into trading. For me my trading has got to be something that fits around my lifestyle. Im always adding new things now outside of trading. Its thanks to betfair for this. Its provided me with profits that iv reinvested elsewhere into passion projects. These are things i see as long term plays with less of a cap/ceiling on growth that betfair has.

Here is the plan going forward. Ill only be building the bank with the LTD strategy. All cricket profits will from now on will be withdrawn and used elsewhere. Im in the process of wanting to upgrade a lot of my equipment and also to move flat. So for this blog im going to stop the cricket. My issue is i cant be transparent enough with them. Me telling you how i traded it will eventually become a repetitive read and task for me. I wish i could trade these live because when i go to post a trade the prices move so suddenly. Added to this is my plan to cut down on any inplay trading. Iv been a big advocate of making trading purely passive income. I set it up start of day and then over time compound that bank. Inplay trading takes up time and effort, yes it makes money but is it as enjoyable as a passion project? NO.

So no more cricket posts. Ill not be adding to the sheets. Of course the past cricket results will stay as my current bank is massively influenced by those results. But no more cricket trades will influence it. Any money will be withdrawn end of each tournament if im trading it on a quiet day.

This blog is all about showing a consistent approach, how that compounds and being a place people can see how it can be done. The myth that trading can be someones living is not a myth at all, its fact. My plans for this blog have not changed. When we hit 10k ill also be showing how that money then gets used to build a passive lifestyle with index funds and crypto. These plans im all still excited about. Doing that charity goalscorer challenge i posted about below are things that will keep me ticking along. I still enjoy trading, im in a good mindset, im helping people who ask for it, im not overworking myself, my trading is stupidly simple and hopefully over time proves to keep up in consistency. Iv now been doing this blog for over 2 years. Iv grown a lot as a trader and also in my own life matured. Im getting closer to 30. Now is the time we set everything up so that i can just do this slow and steady and stupidly simple. Ill be posting just as normal but without the cricket and if i get some big idea topic to discuss as always ill do a long write up. That passion hasnt gone away. This is gonna be an exciting end of the year and hopefully a good base towards 2022 for my trading and this blog.

[A Former User]

Ok so iv spoken about this before, over the course of a weekend i like to have a fun bet active. This keeps me away from wanting to overtrade or trade things i know nothing about. We should at all costs be protecting the bank from these mistakes. To counter the urge and to work in line with a fantasy football thought process, for the rest of the season ill be posting anytime goalscorers. These will just be attached at the bottom of the daily selection i post for the LTD.

The bank is just £100. Thats us for the whole season. We are using £2 stakes and just seeing how much we can make each year. This is just for fun. Like iv said, the urge and fomo is rife especially as the winter leagues start hitting filters more often. Weekends become gung ho on this forum. Im not banned from bookies and people can walk in and do these also. Its just for fun.

Tomorrows selections are Vardy @2.2 and Antonio @2.3
Stake is £2 on each so 2pts of bank each

This will not be a big thing and ill not be going in depth with these. Ill only be focussing on posting LTDs and Cricket but these will be added to weekends for PL only. Let me know if you are following. Iv added a sheet to keep track.

IF we make profit, all profit will be donated to a charity. End of season ill ask people to tell me what one they support and ill donate it. If this does well this year then we can up the bank next season. However all of that matters not as we might make a loss, lets just wait and see.

[A Former User]

I wont be trading cricket at the weekend. I was debating trading cricket at all. Most who have read this blog have seen my attempts to cut time in trading/screen time. Mon-Fri if i have enough time and no other plans then ill trade the cricket, as i have done this week. However, already in the past week i forced myself to get up early to get other stuff done so i could focus on the cricket. IPL is only on for a set period of time so can plan around it, but long term ill not be doing so. Youll most likely see me cut back a lot in the next few weeks. I can just sense im veering towards getting too into trading again.

So weekends are for friends and family. Only setting the ltds in the morning and getting on with my weekend. Im happy to pick up a game when i can but ill never be changing my plans to do so. I make more than enough pts from LTD to cover a drop in cricket.

[A Former User]

AHHH the run is over That was 32 winning cricket matches in a row now over and by such a slim margin aswell.

CSK vs RCB -0.14pts/%of bank

RCB off to a flyer. Easily surpassing a par score and especially on what was looking a solid batting wicket and boundary. In theory it looks like this ground might need to be upped to 175-185 as a par total. However we stick to what works and what we know. I tried to play too safe here. In fact playing safe perhaps added more risk. I back the +180 market @1.3. I let match momentum favour me here. Ideally for this type of trade im wanting at least 1.4. I let the batsmen left to come in sway me from this rule. This went onto lose similarly to the MI game, a stuttered finish.

But just like that MI game we were presented with such a simple run chase especially on a good wicket and a small boundary. I backed @1.38. Now last IPL i made a firm decision not to enter before the chase had begun but as im growing more data im becoming more aware of % chance of that happening and therefore spotting value. This trade worked well and wiped out my loss 1st innings. Happy with this game and a slap on wrist for going against my own rules but no harm done.

[A Former User]

No LTDs today, good time to keep discipline if you are following along. Dont go veering into other strats for sake of it just because we are having a couple non trading days in the football. Easy for me to say when cricket is on, but look at my sheet LTD has made more than enough this month already to be good enough. So a good position for either more growth or a good buffer for a potential downturn. Dont go adding for sake of needing to be active it could cut that buffer and growth.

[A Former User]

@dj-reid nope par score is still calculated with these factors. So 180 is still very difficult to chase, teams will still need to hit big almost every over. Whereas under 170 they can take time and target bowlers and bad balls. Less pressure to score big every over. Bowling team then also dont bowl defensively and try to take wickets in low totals which offers up easy runs if not executed well.

Lets say last night MI scored +180. They would then instead of trying for wickets be trying to limit run scoring deliveries. KKR would feel pressure to score every over. However KKR were going at over 10 runs an over, id guess that we would have been likely to have been on them in that chase at some stage. I just knew 1.8 for less then 160 is huge value. But over time this comes from trading loads of games. You still would have profited using my strategy blindly, not that i encourage that but again its a good guide as to what runs target teams need at certain points historically. Factor in the variables and KKR were the team to be on.

[DJ Reid]

@darri

Brilliant thank you.

So if MI yesterday had scored 180 would you have been more likely to green up as it was day/night than it being a day/day match as the 180 is harder to defend under lights even though a par score?

[A Former User]

@dj-reid Ok so the dew factor has a couple things. One it turns the ball into bar of soap. As soon as a ball becomes damp in any way it becomes extremely difficult to grip. This will affect spinners the most who need grip to turn it. Spinners are vital for t20 as they help slow the run rate or if a batsmen takes them on could get easy wickets. Pace bowlers then find it harder to nail yorkers and might bowl full tosses instead with less grip, meaning easy runs. Basically it makes bowling very difficult and makes it an advantage for the batting side.

The lights are harder to field with. A white ball going into those lights takes some great catching. So again better for batting sides.

While we can say the above is better, not every game will mean a team struggles to defend totals bowling 2nd, but these are factors to help build confidence in your decision.

Its why cricket trading is far better than most sports as there are so many variables, i suppose thats why its not as popular as it should be because of those variables and rules, compared to football lets say.

[DJ Reid]

@darri said in The road to full time:

IPL summary

MI vs KKR = +1.6 pts/% of bank

Nice and easy game to trade this but also a good one to explain the thought process. MI had a solid opening partnership. They were before 10 over mark @1.45 to back. Quite low as markets will always be scared of MI batting attack. However in the runs market 2.0 to back for over 180 runs. So remember why we are using par score. 170-180 is par, anything over 180 and we expect the team batting first to be favourites (not blind back but should be heavy favs odds wise for a trade out). So withe MI being 1.45 to back we therefore need them to make +180 and @1.45 this just is not value compared to the runs market odds of 2.0. Its a huge difference. I backed the +180 runs and fair enough they didnt kick on as expected but we chose the correct play.

At the break with MI only scoring 155 they were only 2.2?!! Madness. KKR being priced 1.8 to chase just 155 is huge value. Like i said in the post, pre match, MI are a great team to trade around because the markets will almost never not favour them. Especially with their record against KKR. I backed KKR here and exited after the 7th over. Could have held on but odds were minimal so not much else to squeeze out of my trade.

Happy with this and sticking to my guns. Using par scores correctly. Please remember par score strategy im using is to be used exactly like you would with the filters for football. They are a guide for you to then make informed value trades. This game when using the guide i could see MI were on course for a big score, they lost cheap wickets but still a good trade, in the chase KKR were a value back chasing only 155, under the lights and the due factor kicking in. All was going in the KKR back decision. Good trading day but depsite my current run which is outrageous i know this wont always work, iv made some lucky plays in this run so dont think its always this easy. Small wins add up tho.

Great post and insight as ever.

Regards dew factor and playing under lights. I always thought the dew factor made it harder for bowling and fielding, so therefore makes sense to back KKK in the above situation as you did. However, I also then thought batting under lights was harder??

Is it a case of the dew factor has a bigger effect and outweighs the negative effect of playing under lights or have I got this completely wrong?!

[Matt Wood]

@darri Yes along with knowing the value prices when they show up I will also have a much better instinctual idea of the key players. As always though its good to come back here and see if my note scribbled down the match fall somewhat in line with your write up

[A Former User]

@matt-wood its a really easy/simple guide. You could in theory get on at any stage of game with par scores in mind, but as long as your still taking value. My post will help you find the correct way to measure that, but loads of traded games will tell you what a price should be at certain points, just like in football at HT, 60 mins entries etc we know what price it should be and if its better then its value.

[Matt Wood]

@darri Thanks. Was really interesting to be following this with specific target points to be on the look out for.

Thanks for the PP answer too, yes am only paper trading these for now, probably for a while as I need to build up a lot of knowledge first.

[A Former User]

@matt-wood yes -2pt loss in the runs market and +3.6pts in the match odds market also saw your post in the cricket thread its 6 overs for the PP. In the ipl its always first 6 also. Please make sure if you dont have too much knowledge of cricket that your using paper stakes or min stakes while you learn.

[Matt Wood]

@darri Thanks for your write up Darri I was following this one in line with your previous post about par scores.

Would I be right in thinking the first trade you made, backing the +180 runs, after the fast start from MI went on to be a loss? Clearly though if it was you more than made it up with the back of KKR

[A Former User]

IPL summary

MI vs KKR = +1.6 pts/% of bank

Nice and easy game to trade this but also a good one to explain the thought process. MI had a solid opening partnership. They were before 10 over mark @1.45 to back. Quite low as markets will always be scared of MI batting attack. However in the runs market 2.0 to back for over 180 runs. So remember why we are using par score. 170-180 is par, anything over 180 and we expect the team batting first to be favourites (not blind back but should be heavy favs odds wise for a trade out). So withe MI being 1.45 to back we therefore need them to make +180 and @1.45 this just is not value compared to the runs market odds of 2.0. Its a huge difference. I backed the +180 runs and fair enough they didnt kick on as expected but we chose the correct play.

At the break with MI only scoring 155 they were only 2.2?!! Madness. KKR being priced 1.8 to chase just 155 is huge value. Like i said in the post, pre match, MI are a great team to trade around because the markets will almost never not favour them. Especially with their record against KKR. I backed KKR here and exited after the 7th over. Could have held on but odds were minimal so not much else to squeeze out of my trade.

Happy with this and sticking to my guns. Using par scores correctly. Please remember par score strategy im using is to be used exactly like you would with the filters for football. They are a guide for you to then make informed value trades. This game when using the guide i could see MI were on course for a big score, they lost cheap wickets but still a good trade, in the chase KKR were a value back chasing only 155, under the lights and the due factor kicking in. All was going in the KKR back decision. Good trading day but depsite my current run which is outrageous i know this wont always work, iv made some lucky plays in this run so dont think its always this easy. Small wins add up tho.

[A Former User]

No LTDs today

Should be a cracking game today in the IPL quite like it if MI went onto win as they are both one of our outright picks and generally a great team to trade. Ill continue to do these summaries as this will help understand my method and keep me in check with each game.

[A Former User]

Todays Trades

Football: LTD

Honka WIN
Haka WIN
2/2

Cricket: IPL

SH vs DC: +2.14pts/% of bank

SH looked like being well behind the 80 run benchmark for 10 overs. I entered @1.45 with a back of DC. This trade had 2 goals. If SH scored more than 150 id trade out. If SH scored less id carry this trade into the DC innings as its a very good price for a team chasing under 150.
SH only managed to score 134 a pretty useless total to defend and I held my position. That DC team looking very strong.

Great day of trading and starting to build momentum and a strong buffer incase rest of month backfires both football and cricket flying right now