The BTC Football Trading Thread

Matt Wood

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Whatever your opinion of the man, credit to Ronaldo for breaking the all time international goal-scoring record. Love him or hate him that is a massive landmark achievement.

Very true.

Never understood the Ronaldo hate. Yes, he's preening and loves himself. At worst, I find some of that funny.
The guy has an incredible talent and has maximised it. He's a wonderful example of discipline. The way he has adapted his style and his physique over the years shows real intelligence.
I'm sure he's nice to kittens and old ladies as well.
By way of contrast, look at Rooney. Same age and (almost) similar level of talent.

Agree completely. The recent BBC doc on Ronaldo had an interview with the strength coach at the time and was very revealing about how hard Ronaldo has worked to get where he is. As Arnold said, "there is no substitute for hard, hard work".

Stuart Capstick

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Whatever your opinion of the man, credit to Ronaldo for breaking the all time international goal-scoring record. Love him or hate him that is a massive landmark achievement.

Very true.

Never understood the Ronaldo hate. Yes, he's preening and loves himself. At worst, I find some of that funny.
The guy has an incredible talent and has maximised it. He's a wonderful example of discipline. The way he has adapted his style and his physique over the years shows real intelligence.
I'm sure he's nice to kittens and old ladies as well.
By way of contrast, look at Rooney. Same age and (almost) similar level of talent.

Matt Wood

Whatever your opinion of the man, credit to Ronaldo for breaking the all time international goal-scoring record. Love him or hate him that is a massive landmark achievement.

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@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward Hi Alan, yes I am running the results side by side. For those that hit 3.2 before the first goal goes in, and therefore which match my trade, the strike rate is currently 84.2%. I hasten to add though it is VERY early days, with only 30 matches so far included.

Well nice results thus far, obviously quite a way to go before it's proven but keep up the recorded data

John Folan

@nick-allan it works as is as long as you haven’t loaded any other shg markets up. I will sort that tho

Nick Allan

@john-folan nice one john very interested in the SHG bots as they are the only ones i haven't created

Ryan

Grrr Internationals

Keeping my eye on Jeonbuk for a SHG though - watching from 60mins if 0-0 / 0-1 /1-0.

Alastair Todd

@alan-steward Hi Alan, yes I am running the results side by side. For those that hit 3.2 before the first goal goes in, and therefore which match my trade, the strike rate is currently 84.2%. I hasten to add though it is VERY early days, with only 30 matches so far included.

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@alastair-todd Hi mate... I presume your strike rate is 89% regardless of odds?

Unfortunately to measure this correctly you would need to know the strike rate of all games that go over 1.5 which hit odds of 3.2 in play (I presume you queue your lay).

The fact that 89% hit 1.5 doesn't really help when looking for odds of 3.2 as a fair few of those won't hit your required odds and would need to be removed from your 89% strike rate.

Do you know the strike rate of games going o1.5 which hit in play odds of 3.2?

John Folan

@richard-latimer gracias senor

Richard Latimer

@john-folan

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/

Is a good one

John Folan

@richard-latimer forget my last request I will add those two links to my top post again.

John Folan

@richard-latimer I’ve seen that somewhere. Do you have a link to one and I will add that too. Been tidying up my threads the last few days to make them more useful to people. It’s part of my drive to not be such a t****r

Richard Latimer

You can also do the same thing on aceodds.com

Also bettingtools.co.uk for back/lay equivalents is a good resource.

Richard Latimer

Should be posted along with table for longest expected losing streak at any given strike rate. Invaluable for not staking too high.

John Folan

@chris-osborne it’s brilliant isn’t it? I’ve added it to my first horse race resources post along with Matt’s strike rate to odds calculation.

I’ve also redone a bfbotmanager automation page to help people out as much as I can. It’s already got Ryan’s split stake bot and obviously my trob bot added. I’m going to do bots for all the daily trades Martin posts. Gary’s SHG being the first one.

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@john-folan wish I’d known this table existed, I struggle with placing trades at low odds even though there is a high strike rate.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon mad hey? I think I was the same lol. Martin gave me that table when I first started trading. It’s my go to on everything. It should be pinned somewhere. I’m going to stick it on my resources first post.

Alastair Todd

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alastair-todd I should be able to help you here... How are you looking to trade it, are you laying u1.5 goals or Split Staking?

Also if Split Stake what is your trade

Hi Alan, I am tending towards pre-match set and forget. Aiming to Lay U1.5 at odds of 3.2 or below for 1 pt profit.

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan thanks for that.

I'm an idiot, I never realised probability and SR were the same % until just now. I understood them both but not how they related to one another. Well at least that's another weekly win for Ryan's post