BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Early draw lay at 4.90 with the overhead conditions will want a couple of wickets early doors and if not will take an early hit and look to build on India if it looks a good deck for a big 1st innings total.
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England win toss and bowl. Anderson ok so should be an interesting pre-lunch session.
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Toss at 10.50; play starts just 15 minutes late at 11.15. Will make up time at the end of the day so nothing lost timewise.
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@matt-ayles Michael Vaughan agrees with you. So I've had a little lay of the draw at 4.7 in the expectation of a few early wickets. Will get out early, though, if it looks like a batting wickets
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forsure first session batters be protecting wicket
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Covers are going on, umbrellas are up! That wasn't in the script... I think the toss is important to win, and in these conditions with Anderson looking likely to feature, I'd bowl first.
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Look like good bowling conditions and there's some talk of putting the opposition in if winning the toss. I doubt it somehow, but things are expected to improve through the day. Not a day for traders to commit too much until we've seen a few overs bowled.
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@nathan-bennett Weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable in that part of the world in my experience. Without rain, the Windies look long to me at 4.5. They're no pushovers in home conditions. One to keep an eye on definitely, with the rain likely to bring some fairly obvious swings.
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BBC just has rain on Friday in Kingston, Met Office showing showers every day. A clear day 1 should see the draw drift out?
Looking forward to a day at Lords tomorrow! No Broad and possibly no Anderson with Ashwin potentially coming back makes me think that India are strong favourites. Will be studying Betfair on my phone as the game unfolds.
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Cant get a handle on the weather for
WI v PAK
starting tmr aswell
Starting price for draw going to be real short
This venue has had one draw in past 21 years and was rain affected
Could be another swinging draw market throughout -
Looks like the weather will stay out of the picture for the second Test at Lord's starting tomorrow, which makes laying the draw very attractive. There have been draws at the home of cricket in recent years, but only when they have been heavily affected by rain.
England and India are pretty much level-pegging in the betting, and with the weather likely to be hot and dry, whoever wins the toss at 10.30 tomorrow will have a huge advantage. They will certainly bat first and their price will certainly plummet.
Phil Tufnell, who knows more than most about the headquarters' pitch, has gone as far as to say whoever wins the toss wins the match. I wouldn't be quite that certain, but if India pick both Jadeja and Ashwin and bat first, England could be in big trouble batting last.
Stuart Broad looks likely to miss out with injury - as does Indian all rounder Thakur - but I don't think those are major impediments to either side.
I think whoever bats could make a solid start which would see the draw price contract considerably. Anything under 4 would certainly be of interest.
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@sean-fitzgerald unbelievable how long ago was this . doesn’t seem right when some of the worlds biggest traders are in Melb
Betfair even did a nation seminar tour with one pro with merchandise giveaways
More the merry for Betfair they get commissionI’ll private msg you one arvo after work see if can get suggested names to tweet etc somehow rectify this
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I was using VPN from NZ for a few years and they blocked my account just before Olympics.
When I called them they said it was blocked due to suspicious logins from NZ.
They reminded me it’s against the t&c’s to use a VPN to circumvent Australian live betting legislation and that if I was to do that in future my account would be closed. They asked me to acknowledge I understood. I took that to mean the account is flagged and I’m cooked if I do it in future.
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@sean-fitzgerald express vpn
When purchase just change it to NZ
Thank me later -
Had a rollercoaster Test Match trying different things, some of them a bit silly. Thank the Lord for the rain!
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I greened up nicely on my LTD after Day 4.
I have to think differently now how I approach Test match trading as I can no longer trade during the match due to archaic legislation here in Australia regarding live betting. So I can only trade before the match or between each days play.
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Greened up with draw at 1.56.
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squaring up and off to bed ha
85% of max possible green locking it all away
onto the next -
go the draw train . if play were to resume may be inclined to take some ENG
otherwise been solid test -
Liability removed now so just looking for draw price to continue to shorten even more and add a little more green.
