2022 Tennis Trading Thread
-
@alan-de-arth
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
No tennis for me today.
-
@simon On the other hand, one of those Bauti lays must go in
-
1 lay today:
Bautista-Agut
Again I will be taking a pass as it’s a final, but will keep track in case these take an upturn.
-
@mike-martin said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@ryan-carruthers Hi Ryan, where are the full rules you mentioned for these on the forum? Struggling to find them
@Ryan-Carruthers Any chance you could point me in the right direction as well?
-
No tennis for me today.
-
@ryan-carruthers thanks for the insight, reaffirms that this is defs one to take a pass.
-
@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
My trading plan for today:
Are on the move today, so a bit different angel.
Today I am going to straight lay the dogs in theese matches:
Ebden v Baghdatis
Harrison v Chung
Monteiro v Kovalic
Mayer v Schwartzman3/4 one here. Only Monteiro lost.
2.43 pts green.
-
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@frode-lia @Ryan-Carruthers thanks! I hope to one day make this at least a second income, hopefully full time, so a good start
One gun in the arsenal at least. Many dont need more than just one
-
@simon
Zopp is not a bad player though, has some really good form going into this one BUT the big thing here for me is Zopp is a qualifier and has spent some time on the court to get here while Berrettini has had less time and also his form's been pretty solid.
I've run the figures through my sheet and its bringing them out at
Zopp - 3.67
Berrettini - 1.37So I will be leaving it.
-
Couple happening today
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-advice/ryans-tennis-trading-28th-july
-
@stephen-morfey amazing, even the ones which were close to meeting the filter won yesterday! Glad to hear it, and good point about missing the Norris game, I’ll have to keep my eye out for that in future!
Yeah my bank is looking a lot healthier today than it was this time last week! -
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@stephen-morfey hi Stephen, with Chung his BPS and BPC stats are quite a bit better than Harrison so that’s a no for me. The same with Kovalik although not as big a difference, but big enough for me to filter out. I did look at this game though and was tempted to add him as the PJH difference is so big, but felt like a maybe trade and going against my filtering so going to leave it.
Green on these two yesterday
1/2 on the trade and 1/2 on the straight lays.The Krygios v Norrie game last night would also have qualified on your filter I think, as Norrie had better PJH, BPS, AND BPC but it started at 01:00am so was showing as a Saturday match. I straight laid Kyrgios at 1.25 and went to bed as wasnt going to trade it. So nice to wake up this morning to see he retired for decent profit.
This filter has been amazing this week.
-
One lay today:
Berrettini
I’m going to avoid this as it’s a semi final and these haven’t performed well after the quarters, but will track the result.
-
@frode-lia @Ryan-Carruthers thanks! I hope to one day make this at least a second income, hopefully full time, so a good start
-
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@ryan-carruthers beginners luck I think!
Agree with @Ryan-Carruthers here. Well spoted!!!!
-
@simon nope, data collection spotting something in the detail - hats off to you.
-
@ryan-carruthers beginners luck I think!
