Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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For tomorrow. Bit annoyed at missing todays winner after not much has gone right recently but I can't think like that. 3-2 HT scoreline a rare one and something I'd only just started looking at so can be excused I feel.
I think if I finally go down the more conventional route with these I may look at laying the ave under book price for a 2nd half goal. We all know that if you can consistently lay at book price you're laughing. Be interesting to see how many I miss.
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errr......nope. Tell a lie, turns out I missed a winner in Ranheim. LCS of the 3-2 HT scoreline.
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40 days to zero
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Another day of nothing. All HT scorelines would have been prohibitive even taking the simpler route.
TPS on the edge but really haven't found the 0-0's to be amazing over 1.5 on the home odds.
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Couple games of interest and as today was nothing it's now 41 days (unless I decide to make it the end of this month instead which probably depends on whether anything is made in the last 9 days of June) and counting:
In the meantime I'm looking at the LCS angle for the suggested scorelines and I'm supremely confident ot will work. Only reason I'm still doing this is I think it has potential to be better and more lucrative.........BUT.........I will call time on the live tracking as soon my deadline is reached if it's not working in practice.
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Nothing tomorrow. Re-charge the batteries re-check the data to make sure the conventional methods still looking good.
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Very small update in the aim of remaining transparent.
It continues to ail but this is just something I have to see through. I'm not too invested in it to continue after my self imposed deadline other than to keep tracking it as whether we are talking months or years I believe this is worth doing on the side.
Los Angelese FC, FHG - Our survey says XXXXXX
PS Kemi FHG - Our survey says XXXXXX
Haugesund - Lay under 2.5 - Finally a win. 3-0.
Breidablik - Lay under 4.5 - Our survey says XXXXXXX42 days......
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Late ones again and the 4am looks like a potential for FHG.
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Still living on scraps. Sapporo was all for today. I'll check Sundays potentials in a bit.
Let's start a countdown.
43 days left to make this work.
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Only these few made the cut:
Sapporo this morning was a disappointment. Thankfully I was in the bed for the FH so missed a 3rd FHG trade there after the 2nd went in. 2-0 @ HT though and you'd expect another goal. Looked at the stats after the fact and home missed 3 big chances 2nd half while away missed 1.
Will update in full later.
No regrets though and even if I was taking a more conventional route in the immediate this would have been a loss on the SHG.
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As it turns out, this was the only trade today so finally a winning day again. For Sat, I need to double check them all which I will do tomorrow.
Early J League game will be fine though if anything qualifies.
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Stopped the rot today.
Start qualified for lay of 0-2 70th. Finished 1-3.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
I can only echo what Keith has said, Richard. Really wish you success. You definitely have something.
For the love of God, though, please look at simplifying what you do.
Thanks Stuart. I really appreciate you taking the time to look at my data. I know whatever I put in place has to be right for the beginning of the winter leagues no question.
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@keith-anderson said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
OK, here we go...
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You have at most 30 results for each scenario; in most cases, fewer than 20. Quite how you read anything into that, I'll never know. BUT, you have 78 FH scenario results and 383 SH scenario results.
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The FH is one to track, but with what you have, I think you could look at games with an average 3+ goals, favourite at least 80% scored in past 5 games, but not 100%. I would guess you'd get 70% FHG at least, so laying around 3.33/backing 1.43 will make you money on simply a FHG.
With those parameters, your SHG strike rate would be around 80%, so back 1.25 or LCS at 5 -
SH- Look for the 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 scorelines. With the games you get on your FH trades, you'll get a lot of SHG if you use the above scorelines.
You'll probably object on the ground of lack of specificity of odds/scenarios/types of butterfly seen that day. Just do it and see if I have a point. I think you have something very promising and it could be so much easier
This will come as no surprise, but I'm going to be as blunt as ever!
Firstly, thanks to @Stuart-Capstick for looking at the data. Stuart is extremely helpful and has also helped me and others.
Secondly, I actually think this is the 'Last chance Saloon' for you @Richard-Latimer (Told you I was going to be blunt). If you can't make this work you should quit trading (Blunt again). It's up to you now to execute the trades properly.
Lastly, We really do want you to succeed, That's why we keep posting. It's not meant to be a pile on and I know criticism is difficult to take, I struggle with taking criticism too, even if it's constructive criticism.
Next season is a very big season for you Richard. And I for one, wish you all the best
I know and you are 100% correct. That's why I've given myself a very small window to see if what I'm doing can work. I know there is massive skpticism and rightly so.
If it doesn't I know I have enough in my database (as Stuart has already pointed out) to make good steady gains in a simpler fashion.
I will succeed. I know I will. But you are right. It does have to be this year.
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I can only echo what Keith has said, Richard. Really wish you success. You definitely have something.
For the love of God, though, please look at simplifying what you do.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
OK, here we go...
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You have at most 30 results for each scenario; in most cases, fewer than 20. Quite how you read anything into that, I'll never know. BUT, you have 78 FH scenario results and 383 SH scenario results.
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The FH is one to track, but with what you have, I think you could look at games with an average 3+ goals, favourite at least 80% scored in past 5 games, but not 100%. I would guess you'd get 70% FHG at least, so laying around 3.33/backing 1.43 will make you money on simply a FHG.
With those parameters, your SHG strike rate would be around 80%, so back 1.25 or LCS at 5 -
SH- Look for the 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 scorelines. With the games you get on your FH trades, you'll get a lot of SHG if you use the above scorelines.
You'll probably object on the ground of lack of specificity of odds/scenarios/types of butterfly seen that day. Just do it and see if I have a point. I think you have something very promising and it could be so much easier
This will come as no surprise, but I'm going to be as blunt as ever!
Firstly, thanks to @Stuart-Capstick for looking at the data. Stuart is extremely helpful and has also helped me and others.
Secondly, I actually think this is the 'Last chance Saloon' for you @Richard-Latimer (Told you I was going to be blunt). If you can't make this work you should quit trading (Blunt again). It's up to you now to execute the trades properly.
Lastly, We really do want you to succeed, That's why we keep posting. It's not meant to be a pile on and I know criticism is difficult to take, I struggle with taking criticism too, even if it's constructive criticism.
Next season is a very big season for you Richard. And I for one, wish you all the best
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In fact, checking teams a little closer the only ones still being watched are Start and Raufoss. Scrap the rest.
Obv tired last night.
Reason for ruling out Bohemians is that the away side Drogheda are a promoted team but that actually means their stats were earned in a lower league so again not something I will rule out.
The idea of this and always has been is that the home team scores a lot and should try and set the pace so fact away team may not be as good as stats suggest isn't a problem.
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In fact, checking teams a little closer the only ones still being watched are Start and Raufoss. Scrap the rest.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I am giving great thought to what Staurt has said but regardless I'm still working from the daily potentials so will continue to post these.
Think I'll stick with daily updates at the moment and try to keep it brief so no live trades. Not helping me or anyone else at the moment.
It's good to see that whatever I choose to do there is most definitely something in the data I've collected and continue to collect. I know it can easily be said I'm trying to almost create the perfect system at the moment and swimming against the tide.
If it's not successful I suppose you could pretty much say after the summer months (end July as I've stated many times), I will take it back to basics and I'm pretty confident I can start making money from the get go after Stuarts post and my own findings.
This is a 100% pledge!!
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@richard-latimer Please take on board what stuart is saying and hopefully now someone has given the advice to you in data format this will help change your mindset to all this rather than us just advising you to make the needed changes
