BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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The women's Test starts today in Bristol, and for me the play is to lay India - especially if England bat first.
India have not played a single Test match in six years and conditions in the West Country will be totally foreign to them. They're playing on a used pitch, which usually makes for a dull, lifeless surface for the bowlers, and there could be rain about tomorrow and Friday.
Also, it's a four-day Test so the chances of a stalemate are greatly enhanced and I won't be at all surprised to see the current draw odds of 2.5 contract sharply over the course of the match.
As for the India-New Zealand World Test Championship, it seems likely the first day could be washed out but - with an extra day available if necessary - I'll be looking to lay the draw at some stage on day one if it dips towards 2.5 or lower.
I think there should be some really good trading in this one, and I strongly fancy the Kiwis to take the prize. They're a superbly well-drilled outfit who were streets ahead of England at Lord's and Edgbaston and are much better prepared than India.
The only danger to New Zealand is if they have to bat last on a turning pitch, when Ashwin and Jadeja would be a real menace. Should make for some great watching.
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This point absolutely a gamble on the weather and where market sits and guesstimate of the starting price
Trade targets this far out
Happy to see what happens first odds on or a loss around 5.50-$6 wouldn’t hurtAnd yeah previous test took what 300 overs to complete
I hope for bulk cricket
Ideally odds on draw and flip the book hard
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@chris-osborne are you referring to a particular weatherman I was told about who made a rather big blunder once upon a time?
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@james-woodroffe isn’t it a bit risky to be believing UK weather forecasters who aren’t exactly known for there accuracy
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@dj-reid I guess with the extra day mate the point is to try and minimise the prospect of a draw and weather forecasts are weather forecasts.
Both sides have excellent pace attacks so also maybe with overhead conditions a result is still favoured. This sounds naive but where is this awful weather coming from?
I live in Hampshire and will be at the match so I’m seriously hoping for lots of cricket. -
@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@dj-reid spot on see what happens
Gutted from a spectical point of view
Chance market odds on by Friday Saturday perhapsThis may sound a stupid question then. If the weather forecast is accurate, why are people not lumping on the draw? Is this not a case of easy money?
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@james-woodroffe still grim
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@nathan-bennett just be aware there is a 6th day for the WTC final in case a whole day is lost.
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@nathan-bennett is this purely because of the weather forecast you have backed the draw?
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Backed draw for a trade
If rained out
Surely fair result NZ world number 1 get the final trophy on default count back whatever haha
Due
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Onto India go on NZ
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Always hard to lay a likely eventual winner
Laying Nz with 10% of my green
Basically backing this 4th wicket stand
1.8 would be great add to bank -
Happy days just closed out with the draw at 14.0 after laying late yesterday at 3.40. Nice bounce back after Lords.
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If Eng get the last wicket fairly quickly, when they come into bat is it still worth an Eng lay at say anything below 3.0?
My assumption is the loss of a few early wickets and the Eng price will drift heavily. But if no wicket the price will be fairly stable?
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Hard to see anything other than a NZ win here, unless something really dramatic happens. Wood and Stone look ineffective and the lack of a genuine spinner is a glaring mistake. Leach should certainly have played.
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@richard-futter interesting when Nz take lead and punch on and throw the bat when 7-8 down how market reacts plenty time in this weird so short
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@nathan-bennett I've noticed that prices around 3.5 are often an excellent support point. The price has been around that mark for the past 20 minutes, so a great point to lay the draw with a very low risk and a great upside if a wicket falls.
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Out and about keeping it simple lay draw 3.8
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Match looks nicely poised. Still good value in laying the draw I think. A stalemate is highly unlikely I reckon - in my book it should be around 10.0.
