My Trading diary
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@steve-sandell said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
5 June (if odds go to 4.0)
Over 1.5
Central Coast Mariners V Western United96minite. Everyone loves a last minute goal. 2-0 (0.95 points)
last minute nearly 10 mins added time. Think the ref had a bit on the game too
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
5 June (if odds go to 4.0)
Over 1.5
Central Coast Mariners V Western United96minite. Everyone loves a last minute goal. 2-0 (0.95 points)
last minute nearly 10 mins added time. Think the ref had a bit on the game too
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
5 June (if odds go to 4.0)
Over 1.5
Central Coast Mariners V Western United96minite. Everyone loves a last minute goal. 2-0 (0.95 points)
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5 June (if odds go to 4.0)
Over 1.5
Central Coast Mariners V Western United -
The over 1.5 was something I was testing a while back but jumped on other strategies at the time and then ended up with too many.
I am solely doing the over 1.5 and shg now. Not even golf or cricket or any other sports that used to creep in every now and again.
I have a couple of filters set up for the over 1.5 and shg and sticking rigidly to them.
I just feel laying at 4.0 or below is better value than laying the draw at 4.0 or below as in you could get the two goals and still not win the trade as it ends in a draw. At least with this strategy 2 goals and the trade is done.
@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan Yep mate try not to keep chopping and changing strategies and the way your trading. If you keep doing that you never have a benchmark in which to measure against in terms of what is and is not a good month. Just looking at this blog seems you have had several main strategies and relied on them yet they have one bad month and boom they are gone. This is totally fine when you already have something solid, then have several news strats on the go and if they underperform ditch them. I just feel you keep having one main thing and end up ditching it after a bad run anbd then move onto something new yet it will likely be in the same underdeveloped stage of trading it. And then so repeats the cycle. The key to this is to allow things to breathe. Strategies have cycles much the same as red and black on a roulette table. They will have periods of all reds and then boom 12 blacks yet long term it will average back close to the norm. Its just cycles of variance.
This is why simple strategies that you fully understand are the best way to go. Stuarts strategy doesnt just involve those odds, yes it appears to be the best odds range over long term but did you check to see what the worst run in that odds range was? Have you optimised this strategy to maybe start queueing less than 4.1 inplay? This is why we work on one strategy at a time in testing!! Make sure to test this vigorously before committing money because as soon as money hits the strat we get emotional with it, we are humans! If we then lose money over a period of time we automatically just go nah this doesnt work, yet in the data we havent fully looked into things. When we dont use money we do the extra research into what other trends come from it.
TEST TEST TEST!! Always before committing money. There is gonna be such a huge trend with people looking at the 1.5 market. People see a good trader making it look easy. The football thread has almost stopped posting just SHGs now. Dont just jump on trends. You havent seen me or any other pros changing our entire trading strategy just because others have had success elsewhere. Businesses dont just jump on trends just cause they see others make something look simple. Keep it so simple mate. We have had this exact chat before it works for a month then boom ditched that and moved to another. There is a few examples of traders doing this exact cycle time after time on this forum and its always the same advice. Please just master one thing at a time and give it a chance.
AMAZON didnt make a profit for years 4-5 years because it kept improving. Now look at it! Why wouldnt you spend the time and effort into doing the same. The best traders on here probably didnt start profitable but stuck it out to learn why something didint work rather than just go nah doesnt make money lets leave it. Always look to improve and collect data and see the hidden trends that data provides. Its not simple mate but we can make it simpler if we stop moving from strat to strat in the hope that one of these will be the golden ticket. It takes time to perfect something (perfection in our case is just a consistent profit)
Hope this helps a bit mate, dont want you following that same cycle again and just find that one good strat in which everything else can be built off from there.
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
3rd June.
Nothing for today in my filters.I have a over 1.5 for the Wellington game in Australia tomorrow morning.
0-3 (0.95 points)
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@stuart-capstick said in My Trading diary:
Darri speaks sense, as ever.
I can understand what Eamonn says about liability tied up in the LTD strategy. However, that's why I use a separate bank for it. I wouldn't like to have 50% of my bank locked in to one strategy, even though I know it is profitable.
Honestly, on a general note, we all need to learn to take a loss.
I had a betdaq account through match betting and just use that for set and forgets so my betfair account is for inplay unless theres a game thats not on betdaq dont have all leagues i find that works best for me to keep them seperated. Like a mental thing i find it better keeping them seperate
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@darri I was totally guilty of this early on, just wanted to see the bank grow, not just to have the money but just wanted to see the compounding effect happen.
Haha Im looking forward to £2 stakes
Cut mine RIGHT back at the start of May, max risk is 2pts on ANY trade now. Made that a hard line rule for myself. -
@daniel-cooper @Matt-Wood its the whole run before you can walk scenario. We straight away want to be on to the big stakes or even stakes relative to our bank. Yet actually we havent even tested it with £2 or £10 stakes. If it works at £2 it will work at 10,20,50,100 etc. Its all about thinking long term and not short term. Yes it would help us all right now that extra money but soo too would that long term money making strategy that we can use year after year. Its just about knowing that and maintaining that discipline of long term over short term needs. Honestly 2-3 years in its amazing how its all about the mental side of it, its easy to find something profitable data does that for us, its so key to be mentally strong with it so it remains that consistent. You can train that side its not just a personality thing, i was a useless gambler with really bad habits.
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@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
@daniel-cooper said in My Trading diary:
@stuart-capstick said in My Trading diary:
Darri speaks sense, as ever.
I can understand what Eamonn says about liability tied up in the LTD strategy. However, that's why I use a separate bank for it. I wouldn't like to have 50% of my bank locked in to one strategy, even though I know it is profitable.
Honestly, on a general note, we all need to learn to take a loss.
I NEED TO LEARN TO TAKE A LOSS
Haha it has taken me a long while to get to that point. I'm sure people such as Darri, Martin and Ryan have said in the past, but if the loses hurt too much, is it a case of over staking? Finally got this lesson into my stupid numbskull head
Yeah to be fair I’d say I’ve finally learned this as of end of April
May was my most profitable month to date as a result! -
@daniel-cooper said in My Trading diary:
@stuart-capstick said in My Trading diary:
Darri speaks sense, as ever.
I can understand what Eamonn says about liability tied up in the LTD strategy. However, that's why I use a separate bank for it. I wouldn't like to have 50% of my bank locked in to one strategy, even though I know it is profitable.
Honestly, on a general note, we all need to learn to take a loss.
I NEED TO LEARN TO TAKE A LOSS
Haha it has taken me a long while to get to that point. I'm sure people such as Darri, Martin and Ryan have said in the past, but if the loses hurt too much, is it a case of over staking? Finally got this lesson into my stupid numbskull head
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@stuart-capstick said in My Trading diary:
Darri speaks sense, as ever.
I can understand what Eamonn says about liability tied up in the LTD strategy. However, that's why I use a separate bank for it. I wouldn't like to have 50% of my bank locked in to one strategy, even though I know it is profitable.
Honestly, on a general note, we all need to learn to take a loss.
I NEED TO LEARN TO TAKE A LOSS
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Darri speaks sense, as ever.
I can understand what Eamonn says about liability tied up in the LTD strategy. However, that's why I use a separate bank for it. I wouldn't like to have 50% of my bank locked in to one strategy, even though I know it is profitable.
Honestly, on a general note, we all need to learn to take a loss.
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@eamonn-hogan Yep mate try not to keep chopping and changing strategies and the way your trading. If you keep doing that you never have a benchmark in which to measure against in terms of what is and is not a good month. Just looking at this blog seems you have had several main strategies and relied on them yet they have one bad month and boom they are gone. This is totally fine when you already have something solid, then have several news strats on the go and if they underperform ditch them. I just feel you keep having one main thing and end up ditching it after a bad run anbd then move onto something new yet it will likely be in the same underdeveloped stage of trading it. And then so repeats the cycle. The key to this is to allow things to breathe. Strategies have cycles much the same as red and black on a roulette table. They will have periods of all reds and then boom 12 blacks yet long term it will average back close to the norm. Its just cycles of variance.
This is why simple strategies that you fully understand are the best way to go. Stuarts strategy doesnt just involve those odds, yes it appears to be the best odds range over long term but did you check to see what the worst run in that odds range was? Have you optimised this strategy to maybe start queueing less than 4.1 inplay? This is why we work on one strategy at a time in testing!! Make sure to test this vigorously before committing money because as soon as money hits the strat we get emotional with it, we are humans! If we then lose money over a period of time we automatically just go nah this doesnt work, yet in the data we havent fully looked into things. When we dont use money we do the extra research into what other trends come from it.
TEST TEST TEST!! Always before committing money. There is gonna be such a huge trend with people looking at the 1.5 market. People see a good trader making it look easy. The football thread has almost stopped posting just SHGs now. Dont just jump on trends. You havent seen me or any other pros changing our entire trading strategy just because others have had success elsewhere. Businesses dont just jump on trends just cause they see others make something look simple. Keep it so simple mate. We have had this exact chat before it works for a month then boom ditched that and moved to another. There is a few examples of traders doing this exact cycle time after time on this forum and its always the same advice. Please just master one thing at a time and give it a chance.
AMAZON didnt make a profit for years 4-5 years because it kept improving. Now look at it! Why wouldnt you spend the time and effort into doing the same. The best traders on here probably didnt start profitable but stuck it out to learn why something didint work rather than just go nah doesnt make money lets leave it. Always look to improve and collect data and see the hidden trends that data provides. Its not simple mate but we can make it simpler if we stop moving from strat to strat in the hope that one of these will be the golden ticket. It takes time to perfect something (perfection in our case is just a consistent profit)
Hope this helps a bit mate, dont want you following that same cycle again and just find that one good strat in which everything else can be built off from there.
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3rd June.
Nothing for today in my filters.I have a over 1.5 for the Wellington game in Australia tomorrow morning.
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You can never change who you support mate.!
Just going with the over 1.5 for now. Less stressful.
@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan Maybe a change of whom you support might help out with the karma and get you bigger green months...
I have been tracking Stuarts cracking little filter for use with Ryans split stake system since Jan. 444 games total, 196 qualifiers for split stake with 162 of those as winners (82.65%) Seems a decent strike rate if you wanted an alternative way to trade on Stuarts filter for now.
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@eamonn-hogan Maybe a change of whom you support might help out with the karma and get you bigger green months...
I have been tracking Stuarts cracking little filter for use with Ryans split stake system since Jan. 444 games total, 196 qualifiers for split stake with 162 of those as winners (82.65%) Seems a decent strike rate if you wanted an alternative way to trade on Stuarts filter for now.
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2nd June
Glad to see the back of May for trading purposes. Poor month.
The main strategy I was using was Stuarts LTD and although he had a profitable month with 9 points I ended the month 17 points down. This is mainly because I was limiting my odds to no more than 4.1 as I found that to be the sweet spot that I was targeting. I was not entering for greater odds as I found laying numerous matches the night before was too much of a liability that I did not want. Also had a few losers on the back another goal strategy.
I see quite a lot of the top traders had a not so great May so I am not getting to bogged down with it.I am now going to give Stuarts LTD a by ball for a while as I was only up 2 points with it since March. I appreciate that it can give 30 points green or 30 points red a month and I also appreciate that it is a good strategy and is working well for some I just dont think its for me at the minute. I may engage it again and enter at half time or something, who knows!
I am solely concentrating on over 1.5 goals and second half goals from now on.
Since the change of tactic I am up 7 points and with not having as many matches at the moment I feel that I can ease myself into this and build it up to a decent profit each month.
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Sunday 23 May
Had been having good success with both Keith and mine over 1.5 goals recently however, theres always a however lol, When the result goes wrong the lay odds of 5.0 I was using is a lot to take. I have now lowered them to 4.0 to maximise profits.
My selections for today:
over 1.5 (max odds 4.0)
Leicester Tottenham (didnt reach 4.0)
Sassuolo Lazio
Spezia AS Roma
Napoli Verona
Brest Paris SG
Nantes Montpellier
Seattle Sounders Atlanta UnitedLTD
Bochum Sandhausen 3-1 (0.98)
Holstein Kiel Darmstadt 2-3 (0.98)
Liverpool Crystal Palace (didnt reach 4.0)
Manchester City Everton (didnt reach 4.0)
Espanyol Tenerife 1-1 (-3)
Napoli Verona
Lyon NiceAston Villa Chelsea 2-1 (0.98)
Bologna Juventus
Spezia AS Roma
Angers Lille
Brest Paris SG
Lens Monaco -
Tuesday 18th May
Not many posts lately as I have been inundated with work.
Up and down month so far.
The LTD of Stuarts which I am laying up to 4.1 for 1 point and over 4.1 for 0.5 points is doing poorly at the minute, currently -8.5 points. There are a couple of games included in there that I probably should not have been on given the time of season but most of the games have been a let down. Still up on this strategy since I started tracking and staking on it to the tune of 15 points over a 4 month period.
Back another goal. Only 15 trades in this strategy so far this month. Again up and down with 8 wins and 7 losses for a total of -2.59 points. Still early days in this strategy for me after only 4 weeks.
Other strategies which include Golf, over 1.5 goals which I have been following Keiths selections and also went back to an old over 1.5 filter I had after enjoying the success of Keiths.
With Keiths picks I am +5.06 points,
My own over 1.5 +.74 after 6 selections. The strike rate is quite high for my selections but the goals have come too early.
Golf +3.92Currently down 1.37 points for the month of May.
I must admit the discipline has taken a bit of a battering at times. I have found it tough being up and down continuosly the past 2 weeks, one day up the next down. I find the weekends the hardest with so many fixtures. I have now decided to spend a bit of time the night before eliminating some games as doing it on the day in the middle of other trades is too much. From now on I will download my selections for a saturday and spend half an hour on a Friday night eliminating the games I will rule out.
This is still very much a learning curve for me and I am still up over 6 times my initial investment and well ahead of where I expected to be at this time. I just need to take a step back sometimes and breathe.
